Today’s NBA Draft Blog Scouting Report looks at a senior who has turned himself into a threat from all parts of the court, and is one of the best rebounders in the country – West Virginia’s Kevin Jones.  The body of a power forward with an always improving perimeter jumper, Jones certainly has a future in the NBA.  Will his incredible rebounding ability make him a first rounder? Let’s take a look at Kevin Jones:









  

Kevin Jones, West Virginia - Senior

Forward -  6'8, 260

20.6 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 55.4% FG, 75.0% FT

Offense

Post Skills- Jones certainly has the body to operate in the low post.  He has a strong upper body and a wide base.  When he gets his back to the basket, he does a good job getting low to seal off his defender and gives his teammates a big target to get him the ball.  He has developed solid dropstep and up-and-under moves, but is much more comfortable going over his left shoulder than right.  He has nice touch around the rim, and for his size, is more of a finesse player than power player. However, he does do a good job finishing through contact and finding ways to get shots off in traffic.

Footwork- Jones’ footwork has certainly improved in 4 years, but he is still not very fluid, especially in the post.  He uses his wide body to back people down, but when trying to make a move in the post, he uses to many steps and too many dribbles trying to set the move up.  He needs to work on catching the ball in the post, and being able to go right into his move without hesitation.  As I mentioned, he has developed a few nice post moves, but he needs to become comfortable making these moves over either shoulder.  His footwork is much better over his left shoulder than his right.

Ballhandling/Hands/Penetration- Ballhandling is probably the weakest part of Jones’ offensive game.  In the post, he tends to over-dribble while making a move, leaving him vulnerable to double teams and being pushed out of position.  On the perimeter, Jones does a decent job keeping the ball close to his body and away from defenders, but he really needs to be able to go to his left hand more often when handling the ball.  At the next level, he will easily be forced to his left if he can’t improve.  That being said, he does avoid turning the ball over while handling it for the most part, but the team does a good job keeping him from having to do it often.  Jones has great hands – he gets a solid grip on the ball, gets them out to give a good target and can handle difficult passes.  Jones has shown the ability to get into the lane, but he isn’t very smooth once he gets by his man.  When he gets momentum going with that body, it is difficult for him to pull up or make a quick move.  If he gets a clear path to the basket, he can finish and absorb contact from any weakside help defenders at the rim.  He needs to work on being able to uses screens better to make a couple of quick dribbles and hitting the mid-range jumper.

Perimeter Shooting- Jones has shown the ability to hit both the mid-range and long-range jumper, but with his size, he tends to settle on those shots too often.  He has decent form on his shot – a high release point, good arc, good rotation, though he could do a better job spacing his feet to get better lift on the shot, as well as allowing him to use pump and ball fakes better to get to the rim.  His shot selection has improved slightly, though as noted, he tends to settle for the jumper too often.  He does a good job acting as a pick and pop option on the perimeter, and should continue to get better at it at the NBA level.

Rebounding/Passing- Jones is a fantastic offensive rebounder, combining the physical tools to create space around the basket with great instincts to know how missed shots will come off the rim.  With the space he creates, he is usually then able to get off a quick putback before defenders can react, and for his size, he has excellent quickness with his 2^nd jumps.  When it comes to passing, the one key area where Jones needs to improve is in the post – reacting to double teams quicker and knowing instinctively where cutters or open men will be.

Free Throw Shooting - Jones is a solid free-throw shooter, though there is plenty of room to improve.  One area he really needs to work on is getting to the line more often.  A player of his size should get to the line more often, but because of his tendency to settle on the perimeter, he averages less than 4 attempts a game.   

Defense

Post Defense- Jones is a strong post defender, though his strength lies in being able to use his body to keep players from getting close to the basket.  He is not a great jumper and doesn’t have good shot-blocking ability, so his best bet is to use his lower body to keep pushing players away from the rim.  He needs to also do a better job of denying the entry pass to the post.  He moves his feet well though he doesn’t anticipate offensive players’ moves, so he is almost always in reaction mode. He needs to improve his lateral foot speed to stop quicker post players.  He is a good help defender, though it is based more on instinct than speed of getting to the spot, and he has become much better hedging on high screens and recovering to his man.

 

Perimeter Defense- Jones has made great improvement as a perimeter defender, but he still has a long way to go to be consistent at the NBA level.  The key is to improve his lateral movement and quickness.  He positions himself well, and has very good court awareness.  He also does a good job handling screens, having the strength to get through them or the instincts to know when to switch.  He does a decent job closing on shooters, but just doesn’t have the speed to always get to the man quick enough to affect the shot.

Rebounding/Blocking- Jones is one of the best rebounders in the country.  Everything about the way he approaches rebounding is done right – blocking out, positioning, going after the ball and securing it.  The only thing he could really improve on here would be improving his athleticism to get to the ball quicker, but it’s not as big an issue with him because his wide body makes it tough for players to get around him to the ball.  As I noted earlier, he isn’t much a shot-blocker, and he will only really attempt to block a shot if he can get to it easily.

Summary & Intangibles

Athleticism – Average

BB IQ - High

 

Jones has done a great job developing his game over the last 4 seasons.  He has found a way to combine a solid post presence with a reliable mid-range perimeter game, and eventually a long-range perimeter game.  What makes Jones special though is his rebounding ability, especially on the offensive end.  The amount of extra possessions he creates for his team every game keeps them always competitive.  He still needs to become more reliable in the post, and to improve his defensive movements, but he has the type of instincts that winning NBA teams love.  I would look for him to be drafted in the top half of the 2^nd round, most likely in the first in the 35-45 range.

Check back tomorrow for a special 2 player report on the Kentucky freshmen – Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.  Remember, leave any comments below, follow me on Twitter - @NBADraftBlog, or feel free to email me at the link up top.

 

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Now that we are solidly into conference play, it is time to take all of the information gathered and start looking towards the NBA Draft.  The NBA Draft Blog Scouting Report heads to Mississippi to look at their senior leader, point guard Dee Bost.  Bost has done a great job taking on different roles to lead the Bulldogs into the Top 25.  He can score and he can distribute, will that make some team take a chance on him in June?  Let’s take a look at Dee Bost:

Dee Bost, Mississippi State – Senior

Guard -  6'2, 176

16.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.3 apg, 38.4% FG, 76.2% FT, 31.1% 3FG

Offense

Perimeter Shooting-  Bost has done a great job establishing himself as a great spot-up shooter on the perimeter.  He gets his feet set, is square to the basket and gets great lift and rotation on his shot, though he could shorten his release time.  He needs to do a better job coming off of screens tighter, allowing him to get a second to get a good look at the basket.  When he comes wide off of screens, he ends up drifting on his shot to avoid the defender.  Also, he needs to look to be more active without the ball, looking to find open spots in the defense.

Ballhandling/Hands/Penetration- Bost is a better than average ballhandler, uses both hands equally well and uses a variety of speed and tempo to shake off defenders.  He has shown the ability to handle pressure, though at times he gets very careless against full-pressure and trapping defenses.  He has good hands, handles tough passes well and other than the inconsistency noted above, he has solid control of the ball.  Bost has a good first step to get into the lane, though he tends to be indecisive once he makes his first move.  He does a much better job going right at the basket then looking for a teammate to dish the ball to.  He needs to work on getting a bit stronger to handle contact and finish against big men.

Rebounding/Passing- Bost has a tendency to spend most of his time on the perimeter, so he is a very active offensive rebounder.  He does have good speed and makes a solid effort to get to long rebounds and loose balls quickly.  When he secures a rebound, he does a good job resetting the offense and not forcing anything.  Bost is a good passer, avoids trying to make flashy passes and chooses safer looks.  He has done a great job with entry passes into the post, putting the ball in spots where only his man can get to it.  He still isn’t great off the pick and roll, but has improved over the years – he just needs to look a bit quicker for the open screener rolling to the basket or popping out on the perimeter.

Free Throw Shooting - Bost is a decent free-throw shooter, but has shown that he can hit them in clutch situations.  He could get to the line more if he looked to get to the basket more often, but his tendency to stay on the perimeter doesn’t afford him a large amount of chances.

Defense

Perimeter Defense- This could be the biggest area where Bost needs to improve.  While he positions himself well and has good lateral movement, too often he plays back on his heels, leaving him vulnerable to quick moves on the perimeter.  Also, he has a tendency to overplay, leaving him vulnerable to backdoor cuts and silly fouls.  The most important thing he needs to work on is playing defense against a screen up top.  Too often he tries to fight straight through the pick instead of going over, under or switching.  Once he gets caught in the screen, he needs to do a better job recovering to his man, or switching off.  He does have good court awareness, and is an effective help defender or trapper in the post, using his quick hands to get easy steals.  He could do a better job closing on jump shots, but he does make a good effort to always get out on the shooter.

Rebounding- Bost is a good defensive rebounder for his size – he is active on the defensive end, has good instincts for where missed shots will go, and has strong hands to secure the ball once he grabs it.  One area he could work on is to make sure once the shot is up, that he looks to put a body on his man.

Transition

Bost is very good in the open court – he is effective both pushing the ball up on the break or taking one of the wings and spotting up for the perimeter jumper.  When pushing the ball up, he is a good-decision maker, sees the floor well and can use his speed to beat the defense to the basket.

Summary & Intangibles

Athleticism - High

BB IQ – Above Average

 

Bost has developed over the last 4 years into one of the top leaders in the country.  He has adjusted to roles both as a scorer and a distributor, and he can be counted on to play hard whenever he was on the court.  If he can show that he can he both run and defend the pick and roll, he could one day be a solid backup point guard at the NBA level.  Right now, I would see him as very late 2^nd rounder (50-60) at best, more likely undrafted, but a deep NCAA run, and good workouts could sneak him into the 2^nd round.

 

Next, up I will take a look at another player who has made significant strides this season – West Virginia’s Kevin Jones.  Remember, leave any comments below, follow me on Twitter - @NBADraftBlog, or feel free to email me at the link up top.

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The SEC is looking strong almost from top to bottom, with one team – Kentucky – being a legitimate National title contender.  There are qualities players at every position and every class, and some great coaching minds.  Even the teams that won’t compete for the conference title will not be easy games.  Part 1 (Click here) covered Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia and Kentucky.  Here is the NBA Draft Blog SEC Conference Preview – Part 2 as well as season-ending predictions:

LSU

 

The Good: Coach Trent Johnson is coming off of back-to-back 11 win seasons, and is hoping that the players he has recruited since becoming head coach 4 years ago will start to pay off.  Most of the Tigers’ significant contributors are back this season and will be joined by an impact freshman.  The sophomore backcourt of Ralston Turner and Andre Stringer handled the pressures of the SEC well as freshmen and should show marked improvement this season.  Turner has great size on the wing and does a great job creating mid-range jumpers.  Stringer is a good point guard in both half-court sets and transition, and can keep offenses honest with his long-range shooting ability.  Seniors Storm Warren and Malcolm White anchor the frontcourt.  Both have strong bodies and are effective around the basket.  Iowa State transfer Justin Hamilton is a wide-body who has a nice touch around the rim and is fundamentally sound.  Freshman Johnny O’Bryant has true back-to-the basket post skills and still has the frame to add some more strength.  He also has the ability to move between the high and low posts well.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Stats-wise, Aaron Dotson, Garrett Green and Matt Derenbecker were not significant, but their transfers do affect the amount of depth Johnson has at his disposal.  Eddie Ludwig and Chris Bass are the only experienced reserves, while Jalen Courtney is coming off an injury-plagued freshman season.  If healthy, Courtney should be an asset to the frontcourt, especially on the defensive end.  On the offensive end, Turner and Stringer will need to do a much better job with shot selection, and Warren and White need to do a better job getting open.  The wings also need do a better job helping on the boards, as the Tigers are undermanned.

 

The Question Mark:  How patient will the school be with another losing season?  Johnson has made some strides in recruiting, but transfers are keeping the program from finding solid footing.  The additions of O’Bryant and Hamilton this season will important, but if the team doesn’t at least inch closer to a winning record, Johnson may be in trouble.

 

What Will March Bring?:  The non-conference schedule is average, but I think they only win 4-5 in the SEC.  That is improvement though.  12-14 wins overall this season and no post-season, but I think Johnson gets one more shot after this.

Mississippi

 

The Good:  Andy Kennedy has done a great job with the Ole Miss basketball program and this season’s team may be ready to surprise some people.  Team leaders Chris Warren and Zach Graham are gone, but Kennedy has a very athletic team which should be able to put a lot of points up.  Senior forward Terrance Henry is long and athletic, does a good job altering and blocking shots, and is a strong rebounder.  Sophomore point guard Dundrecous Nelson can score in a variety of ways, has good speed, and is improving as a distributor.  Guard Nick Williams is a strong defender and rebounder on the wing, and does a lot of little things to help the team.  Junior forward Reginald Buckner is a fantastic defender, blocking and altering all types of shots.  He is also a strong rebounder in traffic.  The X-factor for the Rebels this season may be Memphis transfer Jelan Kendrick.  Kendrick is a great all-around player – can shoot, drive, rebound, pass and defend.  Once he is eligible in the 2^nd semester, look for the Ole Miss offense to get more explosive.  Murphy Holloway is back at Ole Miss after leaving the program to transfer to South Carolina.  He will provide instant help on defense and rebounding on both ends of the floor.  He also has shown that he can be a strong scorer in the lane.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The loss of Warren hurts as both a scorer and distributor.  Nelson has great scoring instincts, but he doesn’t have the court awareness or passing skills of Warren.  Freshman Jarvis Summers could help alleviate this problem.  He has great size for the point position and has very good court vision and passing skills, but his defense really needs to improve to keep him on the court.  The frontcourt is thin, especially on the offensive end.  Demarco Cox has the body to set up in the post and create space to get a shot off, but his effort needs to be more consistent.

 

The Question Mark:  Are Kendrick’s problems behind him?  A highly-ranked recruit entering Memphis, a series of on and off-court incidents had him leave before ever playing a game.  Word is that he seems to have settled down since entering Ole Miss, but, at least this season, this will be something on everyone’s mind.  If he has put it behind him, the Rebels have a potential superstar.

 

What Will March Bring?:  The non-conference schedule is a nice mix of easy games and winnable games against potential NCAA schools.  With the chance for some good momentum heading into the SEC schedule, Ole Miss can be a surprise to a lot of people.  I think they win 19-21 games, 8-10 in the SEC this season, and they should be firmly on the bubble with a good shot at getting into the NCAA Tournament.

Mississippi State

 

The Good:  Rick Stansbury enters his 13^th season as head coach of the Bulldogs, and this year’s edition may have the makings of a team that can make some noise come NCAA Tournament time.  Senior point guard Dee Bost may be among the best in the country – a great combination of scorer and distributor.  He is also a solid on-ball defender with a good feel for the game.  Junior forward Renardo Sidney remains one of the biggest enigmas in all of college sports.  Blessed with the size and skill to dominate the low-post, his effort has been inconsistent at best.  If he is prepared to play this season, he will be among the best centers in the country.  UTEP transfer Arnett Moultrie is a unique player, great size and athleticism, runs the floor well, and hits the offensive glass better than most.  His length should also pose some match-up problems on defense.  Freshman wing Rodney Hood has the potential to be a lethal scorer with his ability to step out and hit the 3 or take the ball the basket and handle contact.  Guards Jalen Steele and Brian Bryant can provide valuable minutes in the backcourt, and junior center Wendell Lewis is an effective scorer around the basket.

 

The Not-So-Good:  There is a good deal of talent in the starting lineup, but not much experience or firepower coming off the bench.  The seven players listed above will play almost all of the important minutes.  The loss of 3 players from last season, plus recruit DJ Gardner severely hampered the depth.  The team does have good shooters, but the big men will need to be effective to enable them to get space on the perimeter.  Players like Bost, Hood and Moultrie are most effective in transition, but the lack of depth may cause the team to have to slow the pace much more than it would like.

The Question Mark:  2 words – Renardo Sidney?  The suspension, the fight with a teammate, the lack of conditioning, not playing with the team in Europe over the summer – all of these have contributed to Sidney becoming more of a hindrance to the Bulldogs than a contributor.  This will have to be his last shot to get it right with this program.  But if he does, the Bulldogs may be in for a very good year.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Most of the non-conference schedule is winnable, and there are a few games which will answer a lot about this team (Texas A&M, West Virginia, Baylor).  How they show will most likely determine where they fall in the SEC.  I am thinking 19-21 wins and 8-9 in the SEC seems right, and if they pull off 2 solid non-conference wins, they should be right in the think of the hunt for a NCAA Tournament bid – probably one of the last 8 or so who get in.

South Carolina

 

The Good:  Coach Darrin Horn is still looking for the answer since he took over the South Carolina program 4 years ago.  The team is young, but there is some talent here to build a foundation.  Bruce Ellington was the team’s leading scorer and distributor as a freshman and should only get better – though he is pulling double-duty with the Gamecocks’ football team and won’t be available until after the season.  Senior forward Malik Cooke is a strong defender and rebounder, and plays much bigger than his size (6’6).  Junior forward Lakeem Jackson is a versatile player who can score, rebound and defend.  Forward Damontre Harris is long and athletic, giving the team a good rebounder and shot-blocking presence in the middle.  Freshman Anthony Gill is undersized, but is effective as a post player on both ends of the court.  Defensively, he needs to get better on the perimeter, but he will improve quickly.  Freshman shooting guard Damien Leonard is probably the best shooter on the team already and should be able to get good shots off with his size.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Not having Ellington until at least January is going to hurt the team.  He sets the tempo for the team well and finds ways to get into the lane and score or dish the ball off to the open man.  The frontcourt is undersized and thin.  Cooke and Harris do an admirable job, but if Horn can get improvement out of Carlton Geathers, it could help alleviate the pressure on the forwards.  Turnovers were a problem last season, and without Ellington, it may not get better.

The Question Mark:  When can we expect to see Ellington?  Mid-January would seem the earliest right now, but I wonder if there is a chance that he doesn’t come back to basketball, given his success on the football team.  I’m not saying this is remotely possible, but it is a thought.  I do expect him back after the football team plays in their bowl game, which could be in January.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Not much.  Even with Ellington all season, this team doesn’t enough to compete in the SEC this season.  11-13 wins seems likely, with 3-5 in the SEC, most likely finish last in the conference.

Tennessee

 

The Good:  New coach Cuonzo Martin has one huge task ahead as he looks to rebuild the program in the wake of the Bruce Pearl scandal.  4 starters are gone from last season, so Martin will have a chance to make changes immediately.  The lone returning starter, Cameron Tatum, is a good all-around player, doing a little of bit of everything to contribute.  Sophomore Trae Golden should take over the point guard spot this season.  He will do a good job keeping the offense moving and setting the defensive intensity on the other end.  Jordan McRae has come scoring ability and does a good job finding holes in the defense.  Junior forwards Jerrone Maymon and Kenny Hall will have a shot to anchor the frontcourt.  Freshman Josh Richardson is a great athlete who can defend, block shots, push the ball up court and finish.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Obviously, the stink surrounding the program after the Pearl recruiting violates were uncovered can take years to recover from.  On top of that, the Vols’ two best players – Tobias Harris and Scotty Hopson – left for the pros.  I could make this section very long, but there is no need for that.  There is some talent here, but no top-level talent.  There will be plenty of opportunities for players to prove themselves.

 

The Question Mark:  Will martin be able to turn this program around?  Time will tell, but he is a good choice to lead this effort – a young coach who can relate to his players, and he learned from some great coaches.  I am guessing it will take one 4-year cycle of players, but he will get the program back near the top of the SEC.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Not much – 9-11 wins, 2-4 of them in the SEC.  But things will improve.

Vanderbilt

 

The Good:  Coach Kevin Stallings returns 5 starters from last season’s NCAA Tournament team.  Pre-season All-American John Jenkins may be the best shooter in the country this season.  He can hit the 3 off-the-dribble or off the spot up, has a deceptive first step past his defender, and does a good job drawing contact.  He is joined on the wing by senior Jeffrey Taylor, a streaky shooter who has added muscle allowing him to draw contact and finish.  Big man Festus Ezeli has improved over 4 years more than almost any player in college.  He has developed his body and his game into that of a legitimate center.  Point guard Brad Tinsley runs the offense well, is a good perimeter defender, and can score if he needs to.  Forward Lance Goulborne is good rebounder, runs the floor well and can defend multiple positions.  Steve Tchiengang is long and athletic, and provides good depth down low, while Kyle Fuller is a solid back-up at the point to Tinsley.   Freshmen guards Dai-Jon Parker and Kedren Johnson will contribute valuable minutes immediately for Stallings.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The team will need to navigate the first 6 games of the season without Ezeli, who was suspended for accepting improper benefits.  While Tchiengang is capable of filling the role, he is no Ezeli.  Jenkins has a tendency to slack off on defense, allowing teams to pick up easy points.  They need to be careful of a tendency to sit around and watch Jenkins shoot the ball.  The wings will also need to contribute on rebounding, taking some of the pressure off of Ezeli and Goulbourne to do it all.

 

The Question Mark:  Will they win a NCAA Tournament game this year?  3 years, seeded #5 or higher each time, and 3 straight disappointments in the 1^st round.  With Ezeli and Taylor seniors, and Jenkins a possible early entry to the NBA at the end of the season, this is the Commodores best shot for at least a few years.  I think they break the streak this year.

 

What Will March Bring?:  They are playing a very good non-conference schedule, with some winnable marquis games.  They should be one of the top 3 teams in the SEC – 22-24 wins, 11-12 in the SEC.  Should get another high seed this season, but I think they have enough to make a run in the Tournament, at least to the Sweet 16.

Overview

 

Player of the Year:  Terrence Jones, Kentucky

Freshman of the Year: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky

Defensive Player of the Year: Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt

 

Predicted finish

1. Kentucky
2. Vanderbilt
3. Florida
4. Mississippi State
5. Alabama
6. Mississippi
7. Arkansas
8. Georgia
9. Auburn
10. LSU
11. South Carolina
12. Tennessee

 

 

That wraps up Part 2 of the SEC Preview – make sure to check back this weekend for the Big East.  Leave your comments, email me at ed@nbadraftblog.com and follow me on Twitter: @NBADraftBlog

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The SEC is looking strong almost from top to bottom, with one team – Kentucky – being a legitimate National title contender.  There are qualities players at every position and every class, and some great coaching minds.  Even the teams that won’t compete for the conference title will not be easy games.  This preview will be in 2 parts to give every team their due – First up, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia and Kentucky.   Here is the NBA Draft Blog SEC Conference Preview – Part 1:

Alabama

 

The Good:  After a NIT finals appearance last season, Anthony Grant has his team poised to make the leap back to the NCAA Tournament, led by last season’s 3 leading scorers.  JaMychal Green anchors the frontcourt, giving the Tide an athletic forward who is improving as an offensive player and is a solid shot blocker and rebounder.  Junior forward Tony Mitchell is coming a great second year where he improved every part of his game.  He does a great job getting to the basket and there are not many in the SEC who can finish like him.  He is tenacious attacking the glass and shows great promise as a perimeter defender.  Sophomore point guard Trevor Releford stepped right up and claimed the position as his own last season.  He sees the court well, can change speeds quickly and attacks the basket well for his size.  Grant is also debuting a stellar freshman class to join these returning players.  Trevor Lacey and Levi Randolph will provide some scoring punch from the wing, while forward Nick Jacobs is a solid scorer in the post.  Rodney Cooper will help stretch defenses with his perimeter shooting and JUCO transfer Moussa Gueye is a long seven-footer who can protect the basket.  Sophomore Charles Hankerson and junior Ben Eblen provide some depth in the backcourt, having played decent minutes last season.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The frontcourt, especially post players, is very thin.  Green operates mainly in the lane, but Gueye and Carl Engstrom are both still very raw.  Gueye will contribute on the defensive end, but I don’t think you will get much out of Engstrom.  Jacobs will add some offense, but he has to be ready to step up and defend and rebound.  Perimeter shooting was a weakness last year, but hopefully the freshman wings will help alleviate that issue.  Releford will need to be more consistent as a distributor this season, looking to get more people involved in the offense.

 

The Question Mark:  Does the team have a go-to guy in close games?  Green is a good offensive option, but he works best as an opportunistic scorer.  Mitchell can get to the basket, but still has a tendency to force things.  Releford has all of the skills and attitude to finish games off for the team, and I expect him to win a few games this season for the Tide.

 

What Will March Bring?:  There are plenty of winnable games on the non-conference schedule, including games against other major conference teams.  This should help them build momentum heading into the SEC schedule.  This team should win 19-21 games, finish in the top half of the SEC and I expect to see them back in the NCAA Tournament this season.

Arkansas

 

The Good:  Mike Anderson has replaced John Pelphrey and he hopes to change the Razorbacks’ fortune around.  Leading scorer Rotnei Clark decided to transfer, but Anderson has some good returning talent and a fantastic freshmen class to help jumpstart his tenure.  Junior forward Marshawn Powell uses his speed and size to get to the rim and he has the potential to be a fantastic rebounder and defender.  Point guard Julysses Nobles is a steady point guard who will keep Anderson’s offense moving and he can also defend baseline to baseline.  The freshmen are lead by guards BJ Young and Rashad Madden.  Young is a complete scorer with good ballandling skills and a great first step.  Madden is another great scorer who can be fantastic in the open court, which is a great fit for Anderson’s system.  There are two very good freshmen in the frontcourt as well.  Hunter Mickleson is still developing and adding bulk, but he is skilled with a very nice shot and good defensive instincts.  Devonte Abron has a strong body and will add solid defense and rebounding to the team.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The big men are a mixed bag.  The potential for Mickleson and Abron is great, but it will take time for their games to mature.  Michael Sanchez has come off of two injury plagued seasons, and will be hard-pressed to earn minutes under Anderson.  Marvell Waithe is long and athletic, but he prefers to play on the perimeter.  Defensively, the team really needs to improve.  The freshmen will need to adjust to the speed of the college game, while the returning players will need to change their defensive style under Anderson.

 

The Question Mark: How will the players adjust to Anderson’s full court system?  The returning players played at a much more controlled pace under Pelphrey, and the freshmen are going to have to adjust to playing at an almost frenzied pace.  It will become more evident on the defensive end where the players will need deny more on the perimeter and look to jump passing lanes.  The big men will be expected to be extremely mobile and the team will need to get deeper.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Anderson will have a mostly winnable non-conference schedule, but the team is at least a year away from being competitive in the SEC.  I would expect them to win 16-18 games, 4-6 in the SEC.  No tournament this season, but I think they will be back soon.

Auburn

 

The Good:  Tony Barbee’s rebuilding project at Auburn enters its second year, and while I won’t predict a fantastic year, it will be a move in the right direction.  Though leading scorer and rebounder Earnest Ross transferred after the season, every other key player from last season is back.  Senior Kenny Gabriel proved to be a solid scorer with an improving mid-range game and a strong defensive game.  Frankie Sullivan is back to re-claim the starting point guard job after a medical hardship last season.  Sullivan was developing into a good scorer and distributor before his injury, but should look even better with an improving cast around him.  Walk-on Josh Wallace was great in Sullivan’s spot last season and should provide some solid depth at the position.  Center Rob Chubb has added some bulk to help him on both ends of the floor, and should be more productive with consistent minutes this season.  Sophomores Allen Payne and Josh Langford are athletic wings who should continue to improve as scorers and defenders this season.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The frontcourt is thin with Chubb and freshman Willy Kouassi.  Kouassi has a good defender, but needs to add some strength, and neither are great rebounders.  Perimeter shooting is a major issue with no dependable long-range shooting on the roster.  The loss of Ross leaves the team with no explosive scorers, or anyone to take the ball down the stretch.

 

The Question Mark: What kind of impact will Varez Ward have?  Ward showed excellent potential in just over 1 season at Texas before injuries derailed him.  Look for Ward to accept a leadership position almost immediately on the court for the Tigers.  While he may never fulfill his potential as a player, he could be the steady influence the young team needs.

 

What Will March Bring?:  The loss of Ross hurts, but still enough talent and development here to win 11-13 games this season, and I’m thinking 4-5 in the SEC.  Still 2 years away from seeing the post-season, but Barbee has them heading in the right direction.

Florida

 

The Good: Billy Donovan’s Gators are coming off last season’s Elite Eight run, but will be entering the season without 3 of the key components of that team.  The backcourt is strong, with returning starters Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton joined by Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario and star freshman Bradley Beal.  Walker is small and quick, can break down defenses and has good range on his jumper.  Boynton has great scoring ability, but needs to really work on hi shot selection.  Rosario is an excellent perimeter shooter, both as a spot-up shooter and in transition.  Beal may turn out to be the Gators’ best player this season.  He is also an excellent shooter, knows how to find holes in the defense and plays with an IQ beyond his years.  Sophomore Patric Young has a NBA-ready body, has shown some good defensive and rebounding skills and is very athletic.  Erik Murphy has size and a good offensive skill-set in the post.  Scotty Wilbekin played some valuable minutes last year as a freshman in the backcourt and gives them added depth at the point.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The loss of Vernon Macklin and Alex Tyus in the lane, and Chandler Parsons on the wings and high post will be tough to replace.  Murphy has some similar skills to Parsons and may be able to help out, but big man depth is poor behind Murphy and Young.  With the depth at guard, look for Donovan to possibly go with a 4-guard lineup at times and look to push a fast-paced game.  The downside to this is the guards will need be much more selective with their shots than they have been before.  Young will need to make greater strides as an offensive player this year to give the Gators some semblance of a legitimate post game.  Casey Prater, who was highly recruited out of high school, will need to take on a much bigger role on the wings.  Defensively, Walker and Boynton will need to continue to be tough on the perimeter to help Young and Murphy avoid needless fouls.

 

The Question Mark:  The development of Patric Young?  There was a lot of hype behind young as he entered Florida, and though he showed some definite promise, especially on the defensive end, he also showed an offensive game which is far from polished.  Part of it was being behind the more experienced Macklin and Tyus in a very guard-heavy offense, but he will need to develop more out of the post to help alleviate the pressure on the perimeter.

 

What Will March Bring?:  The non-conference schedule has some road bumps in it, but will provide some good tests as Donovan sorts out his rotation before SEC play.  If Young starts to show the promise we expect, 22-24 wins, 10-12 in the SEC may be possible.  I expect the total to be somewhere around 20-21 wins and 10 in conference, with another possible Elite Eight run in them.

Georgia

 

The Good: Coach Mark Fox is coming off a disappointing end to last season, but is looking to turn things around without NBA draft picks Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie.  Point guard Dustin Ware is experienced and a solid leader, who sees the floor well and knows how to set up his teammates.   Gerald Robinson is another quick point guard who uses his quickness to get into the defense and has the ability to finish strong at the basket.  Freshman Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could be the leading scorer for the Bulldogs this season.  He has phenomenal range on his jumper and can create space in a variety of ways.  Big things will be expected out of sophomore Marcus Thornton this season as he showed great flashes in short bursts of minutes last year.  He is very athletic, is a good ball-handler for his size and can be effective around the basket.  Donte’ Williams is another athletic sophomore who will need to provide greater minutes in a thin frontcourt.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Read the last sentence above, the frontcourt is thin and inexperienced.  Thompkins was the main post player last year and Leslie was also comfortable around the rim.  Williams will get his shot to play power forward, and there are a few new candidates at center.  Freshman Tim Dixon runs the floor well and is very good on the offensive glass.  JUCO transfer John Florveus is a long and athletic big man who should help out immediately on the defensive end.  Nemanja Djurisic is a versatile big man who can play inside-out.  This group can do reasonably well, though I wouldn’t expect immediate results.

 

The Question Mark:  Who will score outside of the guard rotation?   Ware, Robinson and Caldwell-Pope will get most of the shots, but Fox is going to need some balance to pull off some conference wins.  Thornton is talented, though he has yet to find his comfort zone on offense.  A good possibility is the versatile Djurisic, but he will need to work on creating space for his mid-range shot.

 

What Will March Bring?:  A fairly tough non-conference schedule will give the Bulldogs an opportunity for a signature win or two, though the big men will need to contribute fairly quickly.  I think the Bulldogs win 15-17 games, 6-8 of them in the SEC.  NIT bound this season.

Kentucky

 

The Good: Another year, another superstar freshman class for John Calipari, and this one may be his best yet.  Freshmen won’t dominate this team though, as Calipari still has three returning starters in Terrence Jones, Darius Miller, and Doron Lamb.  Jones has a strong body, can play inside and out, and is a very good rebounder on both ends of the floor.  Miller and Lamb both have great size at the guard position and do a great job stretching the floor with their perimeter shooting ability.  Freshman Anthony Davis is just tapping the beginning of his potential.  He is very agile, moves his feet well on both offense and defense, and is a fantastic shot blocker.  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a dangerous combination of power and skill on both ends of the floor and will make an instant impact.  Marquis Teague is extremely quick and uses screens well to get into the lane and finish, or hit a big man off the pick and roll.  Kyle Wiltjer is a versatile big man who can play with his back to the basket or step outside and hit from mid-to-long range.  Add Mississippi State transfer Twany Beckham (eligible 2^nd semester) to the mix and you have a potentially lethal offense.

 

The Not-So-Good:  As with Calipari’s other Kentucky teams, freshman play a huge role, and as we have seen the last 2 seasons, there are a lot of problems to go along with that.  Playing on the road in the SEC is tough, and with the exception of John Wall, all of the freshman players have been rattled by it.  The big men will also need time to adjust to their role in Calipari’s dribble-drive “offense”, though Davis is agile enough to be very good in it.   Defensively, the perimeter defenders will need to give a consistent effort and not just hope that Davis will block everything – Davis is a very good shot-blocker but he will be competing against players who know how to draw fouls.

 

The Question Mark:  Can a freshman-dominated team win the NCAA championship?  See below.

 

What Will March Bring?:  As usual, Calipari may have the most-talented team in the NCAA, and most likely will lose only a handful of games all season.  However, in a NCAA Tournament format, one bad game could end your run, and with freshmen making up most of your team’s minutes, they are particularly susceptible.  However, the return of Jones, Lamb and Miller makes this team more dangerous than Calipari’s other Kentucky teams.  There is definite Final Four potential and if Davis takes an even bigger leap this year than his senior year of high school, talent-wise they can win it all.

That wraps up Part 1 on the SEC Preview – make sure to check back tonight for the other 6 teams and predictions on standings and award winners.  Leave your comments, email me at ed@nbadraftblog.com and follow me on Twitter: @NBADraftBlog

 

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The Pac-10 is now the Pac-12, with the addition of Utah and Colorado.  Arizona was the team to beat last season, and it looks like they may be it again, though UCLA, Cal, Washington, and a new look Oregon squad will all be in the hunt. The highlight of the season may be all of the talented newcomers who have made their way out west – Arizona, Washington, Oregon, and Stanford all have very good freshmen.  And who else can’t wait to see what assault on color Oregon will give us this year?  Here is the NBA Draft Blog Pac-12 Conference Preview:

Overview

 

Player of the Year:  Reeves Nelson, UCLA

Freshman of the Year: Josiah Turner, Arizona

Defensive Player of the Year: Jorge Gutierrez, California

 

Predicted finish

1. Arizona
2. UCLA
3. California
4. Washington
5. Oregon
6. Stanford
7. Colorado
8. Oregon State
9. Washington State
10. USC
11. Arizona State
12. Utah
    
    

Arizona

 

The Good:  Derrick Williams was the #2 pick in the NBA Draft, and MoMo Jones left to head back east and play, but things just seem to be getting better for Coach Sean Miller and the Arizona Wildcats.  4 players return who averaged at least 20 minutes a game last season.  Kyle Fogg struggled at times getting good looks at the basket, but with his ability to hit the 3, he is capable of plenty of big scoring nights.  Solomon Hill is a good perimeter defender who uses his combination of speed and strength to create mismatches. Kevin Parrom has improved his mid-range jumper and uses his body well to hit the boards on both ends of the floor.  Jesse Perry is a high-energy bench player who has also improved as a scorer and rebounder.  Miller’s freshman class is loaded, bringing more athleticism and firepower to the team.  Josiah Turner should be able to step right into MoMo Jones spot as a distributor who can also create scoring opportunities.  Nick Johnson can score in a variety of ways, and he also sees the court very well.  The class also includes 2 athletic forwards in Angelo Chol and Sidiki Johnson, both who run the floor very well and can score around the basket or with the mid-range jumper.  Jordin Mayes and Brendon Lavender provide shooting off the bench.

 

The Not-So-Good:  It is a strange mix that Miller will be working with this year – a lot of veteran winners, but a much more skilled group of freshmen.  Either way, the loss of Williams could still be felt, especially around the post area.  While Williams did a great job becoming a more versatile player last year, he was still the Wildcats’ best post option.  Both Hill and Perry are more comfortable facing the basket, and Chol and Johnson still need to develop strength and post skills.  Senior Alex Jacobson hasn’t seen much action, though he has the frame to compete down low.  Kyrhl Natyazhko will most likely most of the time at center, but he has always preferred showing off his perimeter skills.  All of this holds true on the defensive end as well, where the frontcourt will need do a much better job rebounding and playing post defense.  Also, while Turner and Johnson are very good for freshman, there will be a lot of pressure to keep the offense moving and to play tough defense on the perimeter.

 

The Question Mark:

 

What Will March Bring?:  Even with the loss of Williams, Arizona is still far and away the best team in the Pac 12.  A tough non-conference schedule should help the freshmen get their conference legs, and all 4 should be vital parts of the rotation come January.  Look at them winning between 23 and 25 games, the Pac12, and most likely looking at getting at least a 3 seed come NCAA Tournament time.  If the freshmen come along quickly, this is a team athletic enough to make a deep run in the Tournament.

Arizona State

 

The Good:  There may not be many positives from a 12-win team that lost 3 starters, but Coach Herb Sendek does have his leading scorer back in guard Trent Lockett.  Lockett has a great feel for the game, picks his spots well to go the basket and can be a tough on-ball defender.  Forward Kyle Cain is undersized at the 4 spot, but is comfortable playing with his back to the basket and using his long arms to get shots over defenders.  He also has good anticipation of missed shots and can get to rebounds quickly.  Carrick Felix and Keala King provide good depth on the wings and can be tough perimeter defenders.  Junior college transfer Chris Colvin is very quick on both ends of the floor and can provide good energy and a change of pace.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The eligibility of freshman star Jahii Carson is still an issue as he has not been cleared to play by the NCAA.  A speedy point guard who can score and create for others could be a game-changer if he suits up this season.  Sendek has two seven-footers on the roster, Ruslan Pateev and Jordan Bachynski, but neither has done anything to impress or warrant much more playing time, though Bachynski at 7’2 can be a deterrent in the middle.  The loss of the team’s 3 best shooters- Ty Abbott, Richard Kuksiks and Jamelle McMillan – none of who shot over 40% of three, isn’t going to be a help either.  Lockett can score, but he still needs to work on his long-range jumper.

 

The Question Mark:  Easily enough, are we going to see Jahii Carson this season?  The Sun Devils are going to have trouble scoring to begin with.  Without Carson scoring and creating, it will be a tough to see this team hitting the 60 point mark on a lot of nights.  Let’s hope for Sendek’s sake that he is declared eligible soon.

 

What Will March Bring?:  With some tough non-conference games, and an improving conference, I think 10-12 wins is the best we will see, and unfortunately come March, it may be the end of Sendek’s tenure in Tempe.

California

 

The Good:  Coach Mike Montgomery arguably has his best team to date out in Berkeley this season.  Led by seniors Jorge Gutierrez and Harper Kamp, and sophomore Allen Crabbe, Cal returns 3 starters who averaged at least 13 points a game.  Gutierrez, a very good distributor and lockdown defender, showed that he can do some scoring last season also.  Kamp uses his body well to create space around the basket leading to easy scores.  He is also an effective rebounder.  Crabbe, last season’s Pac-10 Freshman of the Year, is a very good shooter who also uses a quick first step to get past his man.  He does a good job seeing the court and doesn’t force many shots.  Minnesota transfer Justin Cobbs can also defend well and can play either guard spot.  Sophomore Richard Solomon is developing into a very good post option and solid rebounder and shot-blocker.  Montgomery also has good options off the bench with Brandon Smith, Jeff Powers, Alex Rossi, and Bak Bak,

 

The Not-So-Good:  The best post player, Kamp, is undersized, and both Solomon and Bak need to add some bulk.   The team has 3 good scorers, but they will need some point production from the bench.  Defensively, the team is good on the perimeter with Gutierrez, Cobbs and Crabbe, but the interior players will need to do a much better job forcing opponents off the block.

 

The Question Mark:  Who is the team’s go-to player?  On the one hand you have the steady veteran Gutierrez and on the other you have the explosive sophomore Crabbe.  The last 6 weeks of last season, the real potential of Crabbe seemed to come out and I expect his development to continue.  Look for him to be the man with the ball when Cal needs a score.

 

What Will March Bring?:  As I said up top, this could be Montgomery’s best squad yet at Cal, and I expect them to be a solid 2^nd to Arizona out west.  If they can get better offense from Solomon and Bak, they may make it a close race.  Look for them to win 23-25 games due to a favorable non-conference schedule, and in the NCAA Tournament, the trio of Gutierrez, Kamp and Crabbe could win them a couple of games.

Colorado

 

The Good:  Tad Boyle’s first season at Colorado was a success by Buffalo standards, and he is already making waves on the recruiting trail with his 2012 class.  This season will be a transition season, with the loss of 4 double-digit scorers, including NBA 1^st rounder Alec Burks.  This year’s team will be lead by sophomore Andre Roberson, a wing with great size and athletic ability.  Roberson has a decent jumper, can get to the rim and is a fantastic rebounder.  Point guard Nate Tomlinson does a great job running the offense and distributing the ball, though he isn’t much of a scorer.  Boyle now has multiple options if he wants to look for scoring at the point position.  Sophomore Shannon Sharpe and freshman Askia Booker both have great quickness and ballhandling skills to get to the basket.  Adding to the backcourt is Utah transfer Carlton Brown, who has great experience and a versatile offensive game and freshman point guard Spencer Dinwiddie.  Returning to anchor the frontcourt is senior Austin Dufault, who has started all three years at Colorado.  Dufault can be an effective scorer around the rim and does a good job defending larger players.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The rest of the post players don’t inspire much confidence.  Seven foot sophomore Ben Mills has good size, but needs to really bulk up to be effective.  Trey Eckloff is a decent rebounder, but doesn’t do much else on either end.  Shane Harris-Tunks has great size for the post and is skilled, but is coming off a torn ACL.  The only proven scorer on the team is the transfer Brown, though the others, especially Roberson, have potential.  They will need to get more scoring, especially from the point guard position.

 

The Question Mark:  Can Roberson be Colorado’s star?  I’m not exactly sure yet.  This is a very similar dilemma to what I have with Kansas’ Thomas Robinson – a player who excelled in their prior role, but when the role change is a major one, there is always going to be some doubt if it will work.  Roberson has all of the tools to be this team’s star, he will just need to make the adjustment.

 

What Will March Bring?:  The non-conference schedule is fairly tough, and I expect a tough first year adjusting to a new conference.  I think we are looking at 13-15 wins, 4-6 coming in conference, but next year the rebuilding gets back on track.

Oregon

 

The Good:   Dana Altman had a successful first season at Oregon, leading them to the CBI championship.  This season a freshman star and a couple of transfers will hopefully help lead Oregon to the NCAA Tournament.  Leading scorer Joevan Catron is gone, but EJ Singler established himself as a solid scoring option on the wing with the mentality to hit big shots.  He also is a better than average defender and rebounder, doing a lot of the little things that help teams win.  Point guard Johnathan Loyd may get the first crack at leading the team.  He is small, but extremely quick and can make plays on both ends of the floor.  Louisiana Tech transfer Olu Asholu is a great rebounder on both ends of the floor and is an effective scorer around the basket.  Wake Forest transfer Tony Woods will give the Ducks good size in the middle, and the rebounding ability which will give Asholu more freedom to make plays around the basket.  Minnesota transfer Devoe Joseph, who should be eligible in December, will give Altman a reliable perimeter presence.  Added to all of this is a potential star in freshman Jabari Brown.  Brown has great athletic ability, can score on the perimeter or going to the basket, and is a solid perimeter defender.  There is also plenty of depth in the backcourt with Garrett Sim, and freshmen Brett Kingma and Bruce Barron.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The addition of three transfers and a slew of freshmen will make for an interesting adjustment period.   Add to that that two of the freshmen, Woods and Joseph, don’t exactly have stellar off-the-court reputations, and it can be a volatile mix.  In the frontcourt, while there is good size and ability, there is not a lot of depth.  Asholu is strong, but undersized, and Woods has not lived up to his potential in 2 years of college ball.  Jeremy Jacob and Tyrone Nared will contribute on the defensive end, but neither is a real offensive threat, and freshman Austin Kuemper is skilled, but still developing.

 

The Question Mark:  Obviously, will this new mix of players pay off quickly?  Asholu flirted with the NBA Draft in May, but wisely stayed in school.  However, he is used to being the star of his team.  We have discussed the problems of Woods and Joseph.  Brown has the ability to be the team’s top scorer from Day 1.  Mix them with players like Singler, Loyd, Sim, and the others who have worked to sustain the Oregon program, and it may take a while for this group to gel.  Altman is solid coach, and I expect him to get the team on the right track, but watch for some of the early games to be a bit messy.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Most of the non-conference schedule is pretty favorable, and hopefully the team has gelled come Pac-12 conference play.  If it has, Oregon should be in the Top 4 in the conference, 23-25 wins, 10-12 in conference.  All of that should have them safely in the NCAA Tournament, and this is a team that could win 2 games in the first weekend.

Oregon State

 

The Good:   Coach Craig Robinson is entering his 4^th season at the helm of Oregon State, and he will need to show rapid improvement this year if he hopes to continue his rebuilding efforts.  Luckily for him, he now has a full team of players he has recruited, and there are a few goods ones among the mix.  Leading the group is one of the Pac-12’s best in Jared Cunningham.  Cunningham is explosive and does a great job getting into the lane and drawing contact.  On the defensive end, his quick hands and feet give him lockdown defender potential.  Roberto Nelson will be starting his first full season with the Beavers, and should show more of what made him such a lethal high school scorer.   Joining them in the backcourt is Ahmad Starks, a small and quick point guard who can draw the defense while also being able to hit from long-range.  Anchoring the frontcourt is big Joe Burton, who is undersized, but a big space-eater.  While not much of a scoring threat, Burton sees the court well and anticipates where his teammates will be, and he uses his big body well to defend and rebound around the basket.  Forward Devon Collier is very athletic and can hit the mid-range jumper or take the ball strong to the basket.  Freshman Daniel Gomis is a good rebounder and shot-blocker and should give Robinson solid minutes.  Angus Brandt has good size and has the ability to play either face-up or back to the basket in the post.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The strength and scoring of this team is concentrated in the backcourt.  Cunningham, Nelson and Starks will need to be at the top of their game every night to keep this team in games.  The frontcourt has a lot of great size – 6 players over 6’9 – but there is very little production coming from this group.  Gomis will have an impact on the defensive end, and Brandt, who has international experience with the Australian National Team, could play a bigger role in the offense.  The bigger problem is that without offensive help on the inside, the already poor 3-point shooting won’t get better.  Nelson and Starks can both hit the three, but they force a lot of bad shots.

 

The Question Mark:  Where will scoring come from after Cunningham?  First place to look would be Roberto Nelson, who has the potential to be the top-flight scorer this team needs.  Starks is shifty, but his size will really hinder his ability to be a top scorer.  Collier is improving and can become a more versatile wing scorer, but he needs to be consistent.  Gomis may be one to watch for, just off his ability to grab offensive rebounds quickly and go right back up with them.

 

What Will March Bring?:  The team will definitely be better than last season, and with a lot of young talent, the future looks a little brighter.  Look for 15-16 wins this season, 5-7 in the Pac-12, and at least one big upset win.

Stanford

 

The Good:   Though leading scorer Jeremy Green passed up his final year at Stanford, Coach Johnny Dawkins has slowly started to build up the team’s talent.  Forward Josh Owens is a good athlete, and combined with a good shooting touch, makes him very effective around the basket.  He has bulked up this season and this should help him on the defensive end and rebounding.  Sophomores Anthony Brown and Dwight Powell both had very successful first seasons and will be counted on to take their game to the next level this season.  Brown is a versatile scorer, and can put up points quick from long-range.  Powell runs the floor well for his size and uses his quick leaping ability to score points around the basket and to block opponent’s shots.  Senior point guard Jarrett Mann is a very good leader, sees the court well, and does a good job pacing the team on both ends of the floor.   Freshman point guard Chasson Randle should also see a lot of minutes right away.  He is a good distributor, but he adds more of a scoring punch than Mann.  Joining them in the backcourt at times will be sophomore Aaron Bright, a small, quick point guard who can push the ball in a hurry and get to the rim.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The team has a lot of depth at the power forward and center positions, but they will need some of them to break out behind Owens and Powell.  Center Stefan Nastic has good size and developing skills, but is coming off a redshirt year due to injury.  John Gage needs to get stronger, or he will end up settling for jumpers.  The loss of Green, especially on offense, means both Brown and Powell will need to become a bigger part of the offense, and if the offense struggles, we may see a lot of Randle on the court.  Without Green, the team is just an average perimeter shooting team, though Brown and Gage have the ability to hit from long-range.

 

The Question Mark:  Is the team actually better without Jeremy Green?  It is tough to say goodbye to 17 points a game and almost 43% shooting from 3-point range, but Green’s play wasn’t really conducive to making a better team.  Yes, the season could have been worse without him, but with him moving on, the development of talented players like Brown, Powell and Randle should accelerate.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Dawkins will definitely have his team back on the right side of .500, but they are probably a year away from being back in the mix of things in the Pac-12.  17-19 wins is a possibility, with 7-9 of them in the Pac-12.  They may find themselves in NCAA Tournament bubble talk, but I wouldn’t expect to see them this year.

UCLA

 

The Good:   Ben Howland’s team won 23 games and made it to the 2^nd round of the NCAA Tournament, and he is hoping to build on that, even with the loss of Malcolm Lee and Trevor Honeycutt to the NBA.  The strength of the Bruins this year is in the frontcourt, where Reeves Nelson and Josh Smith form as intimidating a duo in the country.  Nelson uses his body well on the offensive end to clear out space and get his shot off.  He is a tenacious rebounder on both ends of the floor, and is starting to expand his mid-range game.  Smith, at over 300 pounds, has great footwork and nice touch around the rim.  Defensively, it is very tough for many players to get around him.  They are joined this season by North Carolina transfers Travis Wear and David Wear.  The Wears both possess multiple skill-sets and have great basketball IQs.  Their height lets them see the court well and easily get off jumpers or make tough passes.  Junior Brendan Lane provides good depth at forward with his rebounding and defensive ability.  The point guard duties will most likely be split between Lazeric Jones and Jerime Anderson, each providing a different style at the position.  Freshman guard Norman Powell is a streaky scorer who is still developing as an all-around player, but he will provide scoring off the bench.  Tyler Lamb is a versatile guard who should see his production go up with an increase in minutes and Howland can expect some offense from JUCO transfer De’end Parker.  Defensively, this is a Howland team, so I expect players who put in the effort to get their fair share of minutes.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The point guard position is far from steady, with Jones being inconsistent and Anderson, who is already suspended for the first 2 games this season, one more mistake from being gone.  Add to that, Anderson hasn’t come close to fulfilling his promise since coming to UCLA.  Perimeter shooting, which wasn’t strong to begin with, could be even weaker with the loss of Lee and Honeycutt.  Lamb should help in this area, as well as Parker, but they need to be consistent to free up Nelson and Smith.

 

The Question Mark:  Will Smith be in good enough shape to stay on the court?  Surprisingly light on his feet when he does play, the main burden the weight has on Smith is his ability to play long stretches of minutes.  As he starts to tire, he also starts to fall a step behind on defense, leading to bad fouls.  It will be important that Smith get himself down to at least 290 to increase his stamina.  If he can do this, UCLA should be in good shape themselves.

 

What Will March Bring?:  UCLA is still one of the top 4 teams in the Pac-12, and I expect them to be in the mix for the conference championship.  As part of a tough Maui Classic field, the Bruins can build some early momentum for the season.  I would expect them to win 22-24 games, with 11-13 coming in the Pac-12.  NCAA Tournament bound, I would expect them to make it to the second weekend this year, especially if Smith gets into better shape.

USC

 

The Good:   After a trip to the NCAA Tournament last season, coach Kevin O’Neill will be looking to rebuild his talent pool after losing Sasha Vucevic to the NBA, Alex Stephenson to graduation and Jio Fontan to a torn ACL.  With the loss of Fontan, the leadership of the team will fall to sophomore Maurice Jones, a small, quick guard with very good court awareness.  At 5’7, he has a quick release on his shot and has shown that he can hit from long-range.  The only other returning player who logged significant minutes last season is sophomore forward Garrett Jackson.  Jackson is an athletic wing who is still developing offensively, but did a good job as a perimeter defender last season.  JUCO transfer Greg Allen should play significant minutes immediately as one of the best shooters on the Trojans.  Adding more spark on the perimeter is Danilo Dragovic, another very good shooter with a good feel for the game.  Iowa transfer Aaron Fuller is a workhorse, playing tough defense and hitting the boards hard.  Freshman Byron Wesley is a versatile offensive player, strong enough to attack the rim, but also able to hit from 15-18 feet consistently.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Vucevic and Stephenson were the two best rebounders in the Pac-10 last season, while also combining for almost 27 points a game.  O’Neill has some good size to step into the frontcourt, but it is a very raw and inexperienced group.  Transfers James Blasczyk and Dewayne Dedmon are a pair of seven-footers with solid bodies, but little actual playing time under their belt.  Sophomore Curtis Washington played few minutes last season, but is athletic for his size and could eventually become a contributor.   The loss of Fontan is the real blow to this team, as he was to be not only their team leader, but the key to the offense.  Jones did start most of last season, so he at least is familiar with what his coach wants on the floor.

 

The Question Mark:  Where is the scoring going to come from?  Jones showed last season that he could score, but he is the only one of the returnees.  Allen and Fuller should contribute, but I think it may be the freshman Wesley who steps up and becomes that second main scoring option.  Of all the newcomers, he has the most refined offensive game.

 

What Will March Bring?:  With a huge personnel turnover and a brutal non-conference schedule, this could shape up to be one rough season for the Trojans.  10-12 wins may be the most this team could hope for, 4-6 coming in the Pac-12.

Utah

 

The Good:  New coach Larry Krystkowiak has his work cut out for him in his first season.  Leading scorer Will Clyburn decided to transfer, but the Utes still have some talent.  Point guard Josh Watkins is experienced and can both score and distribute well.  He has a strong body and uses it well to create space for himself.  JUCO Transfer Dijon Farr is very athletic and can make plays on both ends of the floor.  Freshman George Matthews is a versatile scorer who has the body to finish in traffic, as well as being able to hit the mid and long-range jumper.   7’3 David Foster is a menace in the middle, blocking and altering shots.  Junior Jason Washburn has great size and should improve greatly with Krystkowiak as his coach.

 

The Not-So-Good:  There are very few returnees from last season’s team, so the Utes are going to be going through some growing pains as the new players learn to gel.  5 of the top 6 leading scorers are gone, and other than Watkins, someone is going to need to step up and score.  Defensively, they have 2 solid bigs who can defend, but they need them to contribute a lot more on the offensive end.  Someone is going to need to step up in the backcourt, so the pressure is not on Watkins to do everything.  Chris Hines has experience and should be able to alleviate some of the playmaking duties from Watkins.

 

The Question Mark:  Can Utah compete in the Pac-12?  Yes, Utah has been to a National Championship game, but since then, the program has been very inconsistent, with a noticeable drop off in talent levels.  While being in a major conference should help in recruiting, are talented west coast players going to consider Utah as a top choice?  The hiring of former NBA player Krystkowiak should attract some decent big men, but I think it will be 4 or 5 years before the talent is raised enough for Utah to be a contender.

 

What Will March Bring?:  The non-conference slate is probably more difficult than this group can handle right now, with the conference schedule not getting any easier.  I think 10-12 wins would be successful for this group, and I would be surprised if they didn’t finish at the bottom of the conference.

Washington

 

The Good:  Coach Lorenzo Romar lost his top 3 scorers from last season, but he still has plenty of talent to help Washington keep pace in the Big 12.  Two sophomores – Terrence Ross and CJ Wilcox, along with junior Abdul Gaddy and freshman Tony Wroten form the core of this year’s Huskies squad.  Ross is a fantastic athlete who can hit jumpers from anywhere.  He runs the court well and can be a tough perimeter defender.  Wilcox is a similar player, though he is much better going to the basket right now.  Gaddy started last season much better than his disappointing freshman season, before a knee injury took him out in January.  He is a consummate point guard, seeing the court extremely well, breaking down defenses, and finding the open man.  Wroten has great size for a point guard, outmuscling defenders to get to the rim and either make a spectacular pass or finish strong.  Freshman Hikeem Stewart will get plenty of minutes based on his ability to score in bunches.  Aziz N’diaye gives the Huskies great size in the middle, though he is still developing as a player on both ends of the floor.  Senior Darnell Gant is a great all-around player, rebounding well on both ends of the floor, making smart passes, and scoring when he gets the chance.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The frontcourt is thin behind N’Diaye and Gant.  Redshirt freshman Desmond Simmons has added some muscle in the last year, but he is far from being a contributor.  Freshman Jernard Jerreau has great size, but doesn’t have the bulk to play in the post, and is more comfortable working on the perimeter.  Sharpshooter Scott Suggs will miss more than the first month of the season healing from a broken foot, and it is tough to determine when he will actually be healthy enough to work back into the rotation.  One thing this team will really need to watch for is not becoming dependent on hitting jumpers to score.  They have a lot of good shooters, but to be effective they need to get the ball into the post as well.

 

The Question Mark:  Who becomes the go-to guy?  Isaiah Thomas personified the role of go-to guy last season, and with his departure to the NBA, one of the 4 guards will get his shot.  Ross seems to be ideal, but he needs to use his athleticism to get to the rim more.  Wilcox does a good job shooting and getting to the rim, but he needs to be consistent this season.  Gaddy is a great set-up guy, but I think Wroten has the combination of ballahandling and shooting ability, the strength to take a hit, and the mentality of a go-to guy.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he assumes that role more than once this season.

 

What Will March Bring?:  There are some tough non-conference games, but I think this Washington team still has a chance to do very well this season.  If they can get any production out of the post, this team will be in contention for the Pac-12 title.  I see 21-23 wins, and a top 4 finish in the conference, leading to another NCAA appearance.

Washington State

 

The Good:  Ken Bone has done a quality job keeping up the momentum of former coach Tony Bennett with the Washington State program.  Klay Thompson was a lottery pick and DeAngelo Casto left to go play pro ball, but Bone has enough talent left to stay competitive this season.  Point guard Reggie Moore and shooting guard Faisal Aden will give the Cougars an experienced backcourt.  Moore is a steady point guard and solid defender.  Aden can be explosive on offense, but needs to be more consistent.  He has the ability to slash to the rim and step back and hit the 3.  Center Brock Motum provides a solid interior presence.  He is efficient around the rim and has the size to be a good defender.   Marcus Capers, Patrick Simon and Abe Lodwick provide support on the wing.  Freshmen Davonte Lacy and Greg Sequele are both high-motor, athletic players who can contribute immediately.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Behind Motum, the frontcourt is thin, and will clearly lack the strong, athletic Casto.  JUCO transfer DJ Shelton and senior Charlie Enquist can provide a few minutes here and there, but neither is consistent enough for regular minutes.  The freshman Sequele will help, but is more developed as a defender than a scorer right now.  The loss of Thompson also leaves the team short a go-to guy who can be depended on at the end of games.  This is a team that will need to be very patient on offense and find the right opportunities to take a shot.   The trio of Capers, Simon and Lodwick will all need to take their game to a new level on offense if this team is going to continue to win.

The Question Mark:  Who will step up as the 2^nd scorer on the team?  Aden proved last year that he can score, and should have the opportunity to do more of the same, but he will need another player to step up and take on some of the burden.  Moore can score at times, but it really isn’t his style of play, he does a good job getting points when the opportunity is there.  The answer may be in Motum, a traditional center who has developed well, but will need to become a bigger part of the offense this year.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Most of the non-conference schedule is winnable, but this team may not have enough firepower to be among the better Pac-12 teams.  I think 16-18 wins, 6-8 in conference seems about right.  Coach Bone is probably looking at another NIT bid.

That wraps up the 2011-2012 Pac-12 Preview – make sure to check back later this week for a look at the SEC this season.  Leave your comments, email me at ed@nbadraftblog.com and follow me on Twitter: @NBADraftBlog

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The Big 12 (consisting of only 10 teams) should be an interesting, but odd, conference to watch this season.  Texas A&M is leaving for the SEC, Texas has 6 freshmen and not much else, Kansas is talented, but thin.  Not to mention, Fred Hoiberg and his band of merry transfers at Iowa State, the tempers of Frank Martin and Billy Gillespie, and Lon Kruger trying to revive Oklahoma hoops.  The talent may be down across the board, but there are plenty of storylines to keep it worth tuning in for.  Here is the NBA Draft Blog Big 12 Conference Peview:

Overview

 

Player of the Year:  Perry Jones III, Baylor

Freshman of the Year: LeBryan Nash, Oklahoma State

Defensive Player of the Year: Quincy Acy, Baylor

 

Predicted finish

1. Baylor
2. Kansas
3. Texas A&M
4. Missouri
5. Oklahoma State
6. Texas
7. Kansas State
8. Iowa State
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas Tech

Baylor

 

The Good:  Coach Scott Drew returns one of the top frontcourts in the country, led by All-American candidate Perry Jones III.  Jones, who showed great flashes of athleticism on both ends of the floor, has the ability to be a game-changer with a versatile offense and speed, but he needs to be consistent.  He is joined up front by Quincy Acy, who is a strong defender and rebounder with the ability to score around the rim, and Anthony Jones who gives Drew great size on the wing, and another defender who can alter shots.  Add superstar freshman Quincy Miller to the group, and you have a group who could potentially dominate on both ends of the floor.  AJ Walton is a solid point guard who sees the floor well, avoids mistakes, and is a strong on-ball and help defender.  Cal transfer Gary Franklin (who is eligible for the 2^nd semester) and junior college transfer Pierre Jackson provide good depth at the point, while Brady Heslip and freshman Deuce Bello provide different looks at the shooting guard position.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Yes, LaceDarius Dunn took a lot of bad shots last season, but he was also the only player capable of scoring quickly and in bunches.  Bello may eventually get there with his explosiveness, and Heslip can hit the 3 consistently, but it will be tough to minimize the impact of Dunn’s loss.  Also, as a team, Baylor was dreadful from the free throw line, with 3 starters (Walton, Jones, and Acy) all shooting below 70% from the line.  It will be important for Jones to get that percentage up near 75% this season, or expect teams to just put him on the line.  Behind Jones in the middle, you have J’mison Morgan, who has shown very little in 3 college seasons considering the hype he had out of high school.

 

The Question Mark: Will Jones take that next step in his development?  Stats-wise, his freshman year was not that bad.  But it is frustrating when you see him put up 27 one game, and then less than that combined in the next two.  Part of it could be attributed to the dysfunction of the Baylor team last season, but this inconsistency was an issue for him coming out of high school as well.  He will need to come out strong after he sits out the remaining 5 games of his suspension, or people may start to grumble.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Coach Drew has a lot of talent here, but last season showed that could mean very little.  I do expect the team chemistry to be better with Dunn not looking to dominate the offense.  22-24 wins and Top 2 in the Big 12 should be expected, especially if Jones starts to live up to his potential. I wouldn’t be surprised by a deep NCAA Tournament run based on talent alone.

Iowa State

 

The Good:  You have to give Fred Hoiberg credit.  Realizing it may took a few years to attract top high school talent to Ames, he has lured a top-notch group of transfers to garner the team national attention.  Led by powerful Minnesota transfer Royce White, there is enough talent here to put Iowa State back near the middle of the Big 12.  At 6’7, White knows how to use his weight to create space around the rim, where he can use his nice touch or finish strong.  His size will also allow him to be physical which taller players in the post.  Joining him in the frontcourt is another big body, Southern Illinois transfer Anthony Booker.  Having Booker will allow White more space to operate around the lane, while also letting them split time covering post players.  Two transfers will also find plenty of time in the back court – Michigan State transfer Chris Allen and Penn State transfer Chris Babb.  Allen is athletic with a good long-range jumper, and has the experience of being a key member of two Final Four teams.  Babb will provide another quality shooter and a good perimeter defender.  They will be joined by last year’s 2^nd leading scorer and best 3-point threat Scott Christopherson, who will remind many of his head coach.  Sophomore Melvin Ejim had a very solid freshman season, giving Hoiberg an athletic wing who loves to crash the offensive glass.  Bubu Palo was a dependable backup to Diante Garrett last season and should get a shot at taking over the team this year.

 

The Not-So-Good:  This is still a program in transition, and a few of the players brought in, did not come with stellar off-the-court recommendations.  Add to that rising sophomore Calvin Godfrey being dismissed from the team due to an arrest for marijuana possession, which leaves the frontcourt thin.  By all accounts, White and Allen have not had any problems since enrolling at Iowa State, but this will always be something fans will keep an eye on.  There is not great depth at the point guard position behind Palo (Korie Lucious, another transfer, will be eligible next season.) and the depth on wing is young with freshmen Percy Gibson and Elgin Cook – both talented but inexperienced.

 

The Question Mark: Obviously, can Hoiberg mold this new group into a cohesive team?  The good thing is that players like Allen, Booker and Babb are experienced, which should make aware of what they need to do, but White has yet to play a game in college after leaving high school in 2009.  Hoiberg was able to coax 16 wins out of a team with less talent than this, so I think he has the temperament and personality to get the players to buy into the program.

 

What Will March Bring?:  This is as tough of a call as any.  With talent like Allen, White, Babb, Christopherson, and Ejim, matching 16 wins seems like it should be easy.  I’m thinking 18 wins seems about right, but they probably double their Big 12 record from 3 wins to 6 wins.  NIT bound, where they could make a deep run.

Kansas

 

The Good:  4 out of the 5 top scorers from last season are gone, including NBA Draft picks Marcus and Markieff Morris, and Josh Selby, but a good mix of experience and young talent will keep Coach Bill Self’s team in the mix of things near the top of the Big 12.  The team is led by point guard Tyshawn Taylor, an experienced leader.  Taylor sees the floor well, can execute the offense and has the quickness to get into the lane and create.  His main target will be junior Thomas Robinson, an explosive talent with a NBA body, who runs the floor well and can finish strong around the rim.  Joining Taylor in the backcourt are two versatile guards in Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford.  Both have the ability to get to the rim or hit the long-range jumper, and they both can guard either backcourt spot.  Guard Naadir Tharpe is extremely athletic and should get quality minutes in the backcourt.  Loyola Marymount transfer Kevin Young is an athletic wing who is great at crashing the boards.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The frontcourt is thin behind Robinson and they can have trouble competing against bigger teams.  Center Jeff Withey has great size and is skilled around the rim, he is just inexperienced.   Actually, outside of Tyshawn Taylor and the transfer Young, no one on the roster has averaged more than 15 minutes per game, so even the upperclassmen are not a very experienced group.  The recent news that Ben McLemore and Jamari Traylor will be ineligible this season makes a very thin bench that much worse.  Finally, as a team, the group has to become much more consistent shooters, from the free throw line to the 3-point line.

 

The Question Mark: Will Robinson be as effective while significantly increasing his playing time?  Part of what made Robinson so spectacular last season was that he could go full speed the whole time he was on the court, which was only about 15 minutes a game.  Now his role is going to change and he will become more of a focal point on offense and will have an increased defensive role.  It will be hard to expect him to play at the same speed he did last year.  His time will be better spent slowing the game down and learning to operate in the paint.  I think Coach Self will realize this as well, so look for Robinson to show a more mature offensive and defensive game this season.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Expectations will need to be tempered this year in Lawrence – a tough non-conference schedule could give them more losses than all of last season.  But they should be in contention for one of the top 3 spots in a weak conference.   I think 25 wins, 12 in the Big 12 would be better than expected but reasonable to achieve for this group.  If Robinson continues to improve at his current rate and the freshmen contribute more than expected, a Sweet 16 trip may be in the cards as well.

Kansas State

 

The Good:  Wildcat legend Jacob Pullen has moved on, but Coach Frank Martin has enough talent in Manhattan to stay competitive in the Big 12.  It starts with the backcourt trio of Rodney McGruder, Martavious Irving, and Will Spradling.  McGruder is the team’s best all-around player, using his strength well to create room for his perimeter shot on offense or for getting to the rim.  On the defensive end, his strength gives allows him to be a great rebounder for his size.  Irving also has a solid body, sees the floor well and limits his mistakes while running the offense.  Spradling is a great third option when another shooter is needed on the floor and a good perimeter defender.  Forward Jamar Samuels is a good athlete, uses his explosiveness well around the basket and is a good rebounder on both ends of the floor.  Former St. John’s player Omari Lawrence will provide depth in the backcourt, along with freshman Angel Hernandez, while fellow freshmen Adrian Diaz and Thomas Gipson should get significant minutes in a weak frontcourt.

 

The Not-So-Good:  As I said above, this is not a good frontcourt, especially with the losses of Curtis Kelly and Freddy Asprilla.  Jordan Henriquez is the most experienced big man, but he still has a lot of development to do on both sides of the floor.  He does have a good size and takes up space.  He will probably spend a lot of time alongside Gipson, who is a space-eater in his own right, but is still not much of an offensive threat.  The loss of Pullen leaves a void in the leadership department, which Martin needs to hope will be filled by McGruder and Irving.

 

The Question Mark: Has the recent peak in K-State hoops ended?  It was a nice little run under the leadership of Bob Huggins and then Frank Martin, but the well is starting to dry up talent wise and I’m not sure Martin is a good enough coach to rebound from a down year or two.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Luckily for Martin, the league is mix of very talented teams and some up and comers – his team falls right in the middle; some veteran talents who have played behind some good players.  20 wins isn’t out of the question, but I don’t see them winning more than 9-10 in the Big 12.  If they can get to .500 in the Big 12, they should be firmly on the NCAA bubble.

Missouri

 

The Good:  New coach Frank Haith inherits a veteran team with 6 returning players who averaged at least 17 minutes per game.  The group is led by the backcourt of Michael Dixon, Kim English, and Marcus Denmon.  Denmon is a versatile scorer, has great range on his jumper and is a tough defender, with the ability to play long stretches at top speed.  English does all the things you need to make his team better – he can score if needed, is a great passer and a tough perimeter defender.  Dixon is the perfect point guard to keep this fast-paced offense moving, getting down court quickly and seeing the floor well.  They are joined in the backcourt rotation by Matt Pressey and Phil Pressey. Phil played quality minutes at the point guard spot and could compete for the starting lineup this season.  Anchoring the frontcourt is Ricardo Ratliffe.  Ratliffe is a strong presence around the rim, but is athletic enough to draw his man to the perimeter and beat him.  Having played in former coach Mike Anderson’s system, these players are all in top shape with high motors, and will harass you baseline to baseline on defense.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The loss of Laurence Bowers for the year to a torn ACL will have a major impact.  The frontcourt was thin to begin with, having only Ratliffe and Bowers as quality players.  Center Steve Moore did see an increase in minutes last season and he will need to find a way to stay on the court against teams with dominant frontcourt players.  Redshirt freshman, Kadeem Green, could help, but hasn’t played since tearing his Achilles in his senior year of high school.  The decision of Louisville graduate George Gooden to not come to Missouri was a blow to begin with.  A standard line up could see 4 guards and Ratliffe getting the majority of the minutes.

 

The Question Mark: How bad will the loss of Bowers hurt?  Arguably, he could be the team’s best player, an athletic and strong forward who can score and defend.  However, this team that Mike Anderson built was always meant to revolve around the guards, and assuming Haith doesn’t tinker too much with the personnel, the Tigers should be able to stay in the top half of the conference.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Not to harp on it again, but a lot of where this team ends up in March is based on Haith not really messing with the style the team played over the last few seasons.  If he lets them play up-tempo, then you are looking at a 22-24 win team, and a NCAA bid.  The loss of Bowers will hurt more come post-season, so I would be surprised if we saw them play past the opening weekend.

Oklahoma

 

The Good:  New Coach Lon Kruger inherits a team that returns 5 of its top 6 scorers, all sophomores and juniors.  Forward Andrew Fitzgerald is very productive around the rim and has bulked up this off-season to make him a stronger defender down low.  The backcourt of Carl Blair and Steven Pledger are not spectacular, but they can be effective.  Blair sees the court well, can push the ball up the floor quickly and is a strong perimeter defender.  Pledger is a good perimeter shooter, but needs to become more consistent.  Cameron Clark is a versatile wing on both ends of the floor – he can attack the basket and hit the mid-range jumper and he has the ability to guard multiple positions.  Mississippi State transfer Romero Osby is an athletic forward who can attack the offensive boards.

 

The Not-So-Good:  While Fitzgerald and Osby have decent size, there is no real post option for the Sooners, so expect an up-tempo style of play.  Kruger recruited junior college transfer Casey Arent, who has good size and a strong body, but is still developing as a post player.  There could be some help in Tyler Neal, who is undersized, but isn’t afraid to mix it up down low.  Perimeter shooting is also an area which will need to be addressed.  Pledger and Clark have the ability to hit the mid and long-range jumper, but they need to become more consistent.  Defensively, the team as a whole has to do a better job keeping players from getting into the middle of the defense.

 

The Question Mark: Does Kruger have the magic to rebuild one more program?  Kansas State, Florida, Illinois and UNLV all rebounded as programs once Kruger took them over.  This may be his biggest challenge to date – the Kelvin Sampson fiasco followed by Jeff Capel’s failed effort have left the program in the worst shape in years.  Add to that the recent success of most of the conferences other teams, and it will be a long time before this program is competitive again.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Probably looking at another 12-14 win season, with 4-6 coming in the Big 12, but with a team full of sophomores and juniors in key roles, they could be poised to make a little noise next year.

Oklahoma State

 

The Good:  Head Coach Travis Ford is coming off what was seen by many as a disappointing season, but he has plenty to be excited about this year with the addition of McDonald’s All-American Le’Bryan Nash.  Nash is a freak athlete with a NBA body, who can score inside and out.  He is also relentless attacking the boards, though he needs to work on becoming a better perimeter defender.  Nash will be surrounded by plenty of experienced talent.  Keiton Page is a great 3-point shooter, though with a lack of many other scoring options, he tended to force too many bad shots last season.  The addition of Nash should help alleviate that.  JP Olukemi was a good addition to the squad last season, doing a great job attacking the rim and getting to the free throw line.  Darrell Williams is a very strong rebounder and defender who can give a bit of scoring also.  Markel Brown is a very good perimeter defender with a developing offensive game, and freshman point guard Cezar Guerrero can be a spectacular scorer and distributor, but needs to work on not always going for a highlight play.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The loss of Marshall Moses and Matt Pilgrim will be tough on the Cowboys, especially on the defensive end.  Ford has brought in 2 new big bodies – junior college transfer Phillip Jurik and Czech Marek Soucek.  Both players have good potential, but neither is as polished as they could be yet.  Soucek does have international experience, but will be 21 during the upcoming season, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to the NCAA.  Either way, it will be tough for them to make up the lost rebounding ability of Moses and Pilgrim.  The starting point guard at the beginning of last season, Fred Gulley, is back after shoulder surgery forced him to redshirt last season.  There is no telling how well he will come back, which may force Guerrero into a more prominent role immediately.  3 point shooting may be an issue if Page is forced into bad looks again this season.  Other than Nash, there aren’t many other solid deep threats.

 

The Question Mark:

 

What Will March Bring?:  Even with the addition of Nash, the non-conference schedule has the potential to be very tough.  Even if they go .500 in the Big 12, 18 wins may be the best this group can do, especially without an experienced big man.  I will say 18 wins, and probably 7-8 in conference, and most likely looking at playing in the both the pre and postseason NIT.

Texas

 

The Good:  Rick Barnes is going to need to do his best coaching job to date if he wants to guide Texas near the top of the Big 12 again.  Only one player, J’Covan Brown, returns who averaged more than 10 minutes per game, and the team will feature 6 freshmen, who all figure to play significant minutes.  Brown is a scorer, and though he is undersized for the shooting guard, he finds ways to create room for his shot.  The new point guard this season will be freshman Myck Kabongo.  A natural for the position, Kabongo sees the court extremely well, can play at any pace, and can score from the perimeter or off the dribble.  Freshman Sheldon McClellan is an athletic wing who finds ways to get to the basket.  Adding to the backcourt depth are freshmen Sterling Gibbs and Julien Lewis, two more terrific scorers, though Gibbs can also find some time at the point guard position.  Jonathan Holmes will make an impact immediately in the post for the Longhorns, with his ability to score with his back to the basket or facing up.   Freshmen Jaylen Bond is another good athlete who excels at crashing the offensive boards.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The loss of Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson has left the frontcourt in bad shape.  The returning players, Alexis Wangmene and Clint Chapman, have played few minutes and neither is highly skilled, though they can be physical.  Holmes and Bond will need to play a lot of minutes right away because the lack of any depth up front.  There is a lot of talent in the backcourt, but it may be tough for Barnes to find enough minutes for everybody, especially if he settles on a rotation early in the season.

 

The Question Mark: Can Kabongo be a team leader this early in his career?  Under normal circumstances, you would let a freshman gradually develop into a leadership role, but things will be different in Texas this season.  Luckily, Kabongo is not your typical freshman point guard, and he already plays with a maturity level way beyond his years.  If his teammates buy into his leadership early, this young team may gel very rapidly.

 

What Will March Bring?:  There is still enough talent, young as it is, to keep the streak of 20-win seasons alive, though there will probably be some hiccups in a tougher than average non-conference schedule.  Probably looking at 18-20 wins, 8-10 in the Big 12, and a spot on the NCAA bubble.

Texas A&M

 

The Good:  Mark Turgeon parlayed his success at Texas A&M into a job at Maryland, but he left new coach Billy Kennedy a lot of talent to start his tenure.  The frontcourt is one of the best in the Big 12, featuring Wooden Award semifinalist Khrys Middleton.  Middleton, a versatile offensive player, uses his length well to create shots and his athleticism to get to the rim, where he does a good job drawing contact and getting to the free-throw line.  He is joined up front by David Loubeau.  Loubeau uses his body well around the lane, and can finish strong or with an improving touch.  He also does a good job clearing out space and grabbing rebounds on both ends of the floor.  Kourtney Roberson will look to build on a good freshman season and should give Loubeau help defending the post.  Sophomores Keith David and Ray Turner should provide Kennedy with some depth against teams with big frontcourt players.  Point guard Dash Harris is a top-notch defender and does a great job getting the ball to his teammates in position for them to score easily.  Washington transfer Elston Turner will provide a quality deep threat for the Aggies, while Naji Hibbert can provide some scoring off the bench.  Freshmen guards Jamal Branch and Jordan Green will have a chance to earn quality minutes with their versatile abilities, and redshirt freshman Daniel Alexander, who was highly touted out of high school, could work his way into the rotation.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Defensively, outside of Harris, the Aggies are not very good, especially on the interior.  With some quality big men in the Big 12, the guards will need to become more active, either keeping the ball out on the perimeter or helping in the post quickly.  This includes everyone becoming more active on the glass, with leading rebounder from last season, Nathan Walkup, gone.  On the offensive end, perimeter shooting could be an issue, though the addition of Turner should help that.  Look for Kennedy to try and play up-tempo, putting the onus on Harris to get down the floor quickly and find his guys.

 

The Question Mark: Will Kennedy be able to keep up Turgeon’s momentum with the program?  97 wins and 4 NCAA appearances over the last 4 years for the Aggies under Turgeon, which was his entire tenure.  Kennedy is coming out of the Ohio Valley Conference, in which he did have some high quality seasons at Murray State.  It may be one thing if he was trying to rebuild a program, but there is always going to be a certain pressure when you succeed a highly regarded coach.  Kennedy has gotten off to a good start recruiting, and he does have a veteran squad, so it will be important for the Aggies to get off to a fast start this season.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Kennedy has enough talent here to get A&M to the 22-24 win mark again, especially with a non-conference schedule that has just a few tough matchups.  In their last Big 12 season, look for the Aggies to win 10-12 games and most likely be in the Top 3.  NCAA Tournament bound, with the Sweet 16 a definite possibility.

Texas Tech

 

The Good:  Billy Gillespie is back in Texas, and the people of Lubbock are hoping he can mimic the success he had in his previous jobs in the state.  With only 3 players left from last season’s squad, Gillespie will have a chance to mold this team from the beginning.  Senior Robert Lewandowski has good size, is active around the rim, and will give the Red Raiders a decent post presence.  Sophomores Jaye Crockett and Javarez Willis played a decent amount of minutes last season and both should adjust well to Gillespie’s defensive-minded style of play.  Of the newcomers, Jordan Tolbert may be the most ready to play, and will provide an inside-out post presence at the power forward spot.  Junior College transfer Jaron Nash is an explosive athlete who can get to the rim and finish strong.

 

The Not-So-Good:  As it has been know through the years, Gillespie is very tough to play for, and you may see a lot of turnover quickly in his roster over the first 2 seasons.  The guys who do play for him will give an effort every night, but right now it is still tough to pick out which newcomers will make an impact.  Kevin Wagner and Toddrick Gotcher will have the opportunity to earn a lot of minutes in the backcourt.

 

The Question Mark: Is it possible to make Texas Tech basketball viable again?  A legend like Bob Knight had minor success here, and his son Pat tried to make Lubbock a destination for players, but could only land a few.  Gillespie has done well at each of his stops, even the controversial time in Kentucky.  He knows the state of Texas well and if given the proper amount of time, he may get Texas Tech near the middle of the Big 12 pack again, but there is way too much work to be done to think beyond that.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Even with a very light non-conference schedule, 10 wins may be the ceiling for this group, with 2-3 coming in the Big 12.  It’s going to be a long year in Lubbock, and you don’t want to make Billy Gillespie angry.

That wraps up the 2011-2012 Big 12 Preview – make sure to check back later this week for a look at the Pac 12 this season.  Leave your comments, email me at ed@nbadraftblog.com and follow me on Twitter: @NBADraftBlog

 

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The Big 10 has shown a lot of improvement as a whole over the last few years, but it has been a consistent mix of Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan State near the top.  They will all be there again, but it is clearly the Buckeyes’ conference to lose.  There will be plenty of other storylines to follow though – will Northwestern finally get to the NCAA Tournament?  Can Michigan actually be a better team without Darius Morris?  Will Indiana’s rebuilding finally take the next step?  Let’s take a look at the Big 10:

Overview

 

Player of the Year:  Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

Freshman of the Year: Cody Zeller, Indiana

Defensive Player of the Year: Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin

 

Predicted finish

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Purdue
5. Wisconsin
6. Northwestern
7. Minnesota
8. Indiana
9. Illinois
10. Iowa
11. Nebraska
12. Penn State

Illinois

 

The Good:  Even with the loss of Dmetri McCamey, the backcourt should still be in good hands with the junior duo of Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson.  Both are very capable scorers and defenders, with good size and the ability to hit the long-range jumper.  The frontcourt suffered biggers losses with Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and Bill Cole all graduating, and Jereme Richmond making the ill-advised decision to declare for the NBA Draft.  They will be replaced by 7-footer Meyers Leonard, and a slew of talented freshmen – Nnanna Egwu, Mike Shaw, and Mychael Henry.  Leonard still needs to add some more strength, but showed great athleticism in limited minutes last season.  Egwu is raw, and also needs to bulk up, but he shows a great feel for the game and is very athletic.  Shaw and Henry also show great promise and should be good role players right away.  There is some decent backcourt depth in sophomore Crandall Head, Bradley transfer Sam Maniscalco and freshman Tracy Abrams.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Two major problems standout for the Illini: First, the frontcourt, while having talent, is very young and inexperienced.  They are also missing a physical presence like Davis provided.  Second, the backcourt, while having scoring ability, lacks a true point guard.  Both Paul and Richardson are capable, but this team is going to need them to focus on scoring.

 

The Question Mark:  Which guard will step up as the playmaker?  Both Paul and Richardson prefer shooting jumpers than attacking the basket, but one, or both, will need to become better at making the defense react.  The answer may be pairing the two of them with Maniscalco, who showed at Bradley that he can run an offense efficiently and distribute the basketball.

 

What Will March Bring?:  With a decent non-conference schedule, the Illini should be able to build up momentum heading towards 2012.  However, in a tough Big 10 this season, they may not get to .500 in conference.  Look for Coach Weber’s squad to get 18-20 wins, but miss out on the NCAA Tournament.

Indiana

 

The Good:  Tom Crean’s rebuilding project enters its 4^th season with arguably his best team yet.  Junior forward Christian Watford had a breakout season last year, leading the team in scoring and rebounding.  With the ability to play on the perimeter or take the ball down low, Watford’s versatility on both ends of the floor gives Crean may line-up options.  Joining him in the frontcourt are heralded freshman Cody Zeller, veteran power forward Tom Pritchard, and junior Derek Elston.  Zeller is highly-skilled in the post and move his feet very well.  It will be important for him to bulk up quickly to play the post in the Big 10.  The backcourt is in very good shape with guards Verdell Jones III, Victor Oladipo, Jordan Hulls, and a healthy Maurice Creek.  Jones and Oladipo are quick and do a great job getting into the lane.  Hulls is the best shooter of the group, and Creek will give them quality minutes at the shooting guard spot.  Add a great fundamentals coach to a talented group and the future is bright.

The Not-So-Good:  If Zeller struggles or gets into foul trouble, there is no reliable back-up option in the middle.  While the guards are good scorers, there is no true point guard who has emerged from the group.  Defensively, the team as a whole needs to do a better job keeping opposing players out of the lane.  Finally, if the team gets off to a bad start, will talk about Crean’s job become a distraction?

 

The Question Mark:  How will Zeller handle the hype?  Not only is he an Indiana native playing for his storied state university, but with Tom Crean’s rebuilding process still in progress, fans will probably get a bit antsy if there isn’t a big leap this year.  As soon as Zeller was signed, you could hear the chatter that he was the school’s savior?  Is he ready for all that goes along with that moniker?  With a talented group around him, I think he is.

 

What Will March Bring?:  I like this team a lot, and I think they are surely capable of 18 wins and possibly .500 in the Big 10.  They should be a NCAA bubble team, and that should be enough to tide the school over until next year’s Top 5 recruiting class.  I still think they steal a win or two they probably shouldn’t and are one of the last teams out of the Tournament.

Iowa

 

The Good:  Coach Fran McCaffery’s second season in Iowa has him returning most of his key players from last season, led by the backcourt duo of Matt Gatens and Bryce Cartwright.  Gatens is always a threat in the mid and long-range game, while Cartwright showed excellent court vision and passing on his way to leading the Big 10 in assists last season.  Melsahn Basabe is back to build on a terrific freshman season.  Extremely athletic, Basabe is a quality defender and uses his explosiveness to get some easy baskets on the offensive end.  Eric May and Roy Devyn Marble provide athleticism on the perimeter, while Zach McCabe can provide quality frontcourt minutes off the bench.  Freshman Josh Oglesby should get some court time with his ability to hit the 3.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The frontcourt is not very big and not very deep.  Basabe uses his speed and leaping ability to outplay much bigger players, but he still doesn’t have ideal size for a power forward.  The loss of Jarryd Cole will mean Basabe and McCabe will need to contribute more on the defensive boards.  Shot selection is important for the team as a whole, but it should be better in the 2^nd year of McCaffery’s system.

 

The Question Mark:  Will Basabe supplant Gatens as the go-to player for the Hawkeyes?  Basabe was easily the best player Iowa had during the Big 10 conference season, but consistency was an issue (5 games with more than 20 points, 8 games with 8 or less.)  While I expect him to fix that a bit this season, I still think the veteran Gatens will be the guy with the ball in his hands down the stretch of tight games.

 

What Will March Bring?:  They should definitely do better than last year’s 11-win season, but the Hawkeyes are still a year away from making a dent in the upper half of the Big 10.  Probably 15-16 wins this season, 6 or 7 of them coming in the Big 10.

Michigan

 

The Good:  There is reason for excitement in Ann Arbor, even with the loss of Darius Morris to the NBA.  Coach John Belien has done a great job adding talent each season, and this should be his best one yet.  Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jordan Morgan both had highly successful first seasons for the Wolverines last year.  Hardaway, who spent the summer with the US Under-19 team, is a consistent long-range jumper away from being one of the conference’s better scorers.  Add to that a high basketball IQ and solid defensive skills, Hardaway has what it takes to replace Morris.  Morgan has a strong body and has started to develop some good moves in the post.  He is still raw, but has great potential.  The team has a pair of solid veteran leaders in Stu Douglass and Zach Novak.  Sophomores Jon Horford and Evan Smotrycz will join Morgan in the frontcourt.  Horford, who has bulked up considerably since getting to Michigan, has the ability to play in the low or high post, while Smotrycz is more comfortable playing on the perimeter, where is size is a big advantage.  The backcourt is solidified by a pair of freshmen in Carlton Brundidge and Trey Burke, both who are excellent at creating scoring opportunities.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Even with the remaining talent, the loss of Morris can be a big one, as the amount of attention he received from opposing defenses made it easier on everyone else.  On the defensive end, Morgan and the other big men will need to do a better job forcing their man away from the basket and hitting the defensive boards.

 

The Question Mark:  Who will replace Morris at the point?  With a plethora of guards to choose from, Beilein has options here – the experience of Douglass, the dynamic freshman Burke, or does he go with Hardaway, who is much better when he has the ball in his hands.  Unfortunately, I think we will see some hybrid of these players, but in a close game, the ball will be in Hardaway’s hands.

 

What Will March Bring?:  There is enough talent here to be a Top 4 Big 10 team and to make it to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament.  If Hardaway and Morgan progress as they did last season, the Wolverines can definitely hit the 25 win mark.

Michigan State

 

The Good:  Coach Tom Izzo’s squad is looking to get back on track after an off-season (19 wins and a first round NCAA exit.)  He will need to do it with a basically young team, save for senior leader Draymond Green.  Green has been a workhorse for 3 years under Izzo, doing anything the team needed from him to win.  Green has developed into a decent perimeter shooter as well as high post passer, while Roe is an excellent defender, and finds ways to get himself involved in plays on both ends of the floor.  Keith Appling is the team’s best shooter, but with the loss of Kalin Lucas and Korey Lucious, he may be called on to become more of a distributor.  He will have help in the backcourt from Valparaiso transfer Brandon Wood.  Wood is an excellent scorer, but most likely won’t get as many shots as he did at Valpo.  Freshman Branden Dawson is strong and active on both ends of the floor, and should be a future star for the Spartans.

 

The Not-So-Good:  With the graduation of Lucas and the dismissal of Lucious, the team lacks a true point guard.  Both Appling and Wood are more scorers and freshman Travis Trice will need to become a better defender before he gets quality minutes from Izzo.  The sudden decision by Delvon Roe to end his playing career last week due to a degenerative knee condition, leaves the team with one less leader.  The transfer of Garrick Sherman leaves the Spartans without an experienced big man.  Derrick Nix garnered some back-up minutes last season, but needs to get in better shape to stay on the floor.  When he is on the floor, he shows great skill and uses his wide body well on both ends of the floor.  His back-up will be Adreian Payne, who can be an effective shot-blocker, but is still raw on the offensive end.

 

The Question Mark:  Does Izzo have the program back on track?  The dismissals of Chris Allen and Korey Lucious were distractions and it showed on last year’s team.  But Izzo is one of the best in the business, and he is still bringing in big talent.  While this season may not be up to MSU standards, they will still be near the top of the conference.

 

What Will March Bring?:  As I just stated above, I wouldn’t expect for the Spartans to rebound completely after last season, but they will be in much better shape come tournament time.  Figure they are good for 23-25 wins and a Top 4 Big 10 finish, and possibly a chance to steal a NCAA Tournament game or two.

Minnesota

 

The Good:  The starting frontcourt may be one of the best in the Big 10, led by one of the country’s top players, Trevor Mbakwe.  Mbakwe, whose constant motor has him involved on most plays on both ends of the court, is good for a double-double almost every night.  He is joined by center Ralph Sampson III and small forward Rodney Williams.  Sampson has improved as a low-post player, but he still needs to be more aggressive around the rim.  Williams has yet to become the player the Gophers thought they were getting out of high school, but he is very athletic and if he makes better decisions, he could improve immensely.  Austin Hollins showed great court awareness in limited minutes last season.

 

The Not-So-Good:   With the graduation of Al Nolen and Blake Hoffarber, as well as the suspensions and ultimate transfer of Devoe Joseph, the backcourt is in flux.   Austin Hollins could be joined in the backcourt by freshman Andre Hollins.  Andre is more of a scorer than distributor, but he has great quickness and can get into the defense.  Same can be said of fellow freshman Joe Coleman.  Also, the transfer of Colten Iversen will hurt the depth of the frontcourt.

 

The Question Mark:  Where will the scoring come from?  There is only so much Mbakwe can do, and without a true point guard, Sampson may have a hard time getting the ball where he needs to be effective.  Rodney Williams will need to step up this season if this team is to have any chance of being successful this season.

 

What Will March Bring?:  A fairly easy non-conference schedule could give Coach Tubby Smith the chance to find the right mix in the back court to give this team a chance in the Big 10.  If he does that, Minnesota could win 20-22 games, but I think only 6-8 will come in-conference, leaving them most likely on the outside of the NCAA Tournament this year.

Nebraska

 

The Good:  Coach Doc Sadler will enter the Big 10 this season with the large majority of his rotation intact, led by center Jorge Brian Diaz.  Diaz had a good sophomore season, showing improvement across the board.  At 6’11 with a good frame, he uses his body well to create space and get good shots.  If he can improve his touch, he could do very well in the Big 10.  The backcourt of Brandon Richardson and Toney McCray is a good one.  Richardson is an excellent on-ball defender and is capable of controlling the offense.  McCray is the team’s best deep threat and adds good size on the wing.  Brandon Ubel is developing as a post player and could make a difference with his ability to score around the basket.  Freshman wing David Rivers is very athletic and will get quality minutes based on his ability to guard multiple positions.

 

The Not-So-Good:  While there is some talent, it is not a very deep team.  Behind Diaz, there are two more huge bodies, Christopher Niemann and Andre Almeida.  Almeida is the more experienced of the two, but neither has the skill of Diaz.  All of the frontcourt players will need to do a better job rebounding.  The loss of do-everything Lance Jeter will also be felt, though Caleb Walker has a similar skill set.

 

The Question Mark:  How will the Huskers adjust to life in the Big 10?  Actually, I think the Husker’s style of play is a much better fit in the Big 10 than it was in the Big 12.  Sadler’s methodical offense and preaching of tough defense should help the Huskers compete with a lot of the Big 10 teams immediately.

 

What Will March Bring?:  I think Nebraska will be hard-pressed to match last year’s 19 wins.  I think 15-16 wins is realistic, possibly 5 or 6 coming in the Big 10.  Steal a win or two, and they could see the NIT.

Northwestern

 

The Good:  Coach Bill Carmody returns most of the core of last year’s 20 win team.  Forward John Shurna is one of the most consistent scorers in the Big 10.  He has good size on the perimeter, can hit from long-range, and is skilled enough to get into the lane.  Junior Drew Crawford had a solid season last year, providing versatile scoring as well as great on-ball defense.  Center Luka Mirkovic is another good defender, though his offensive game is more perimeter based.  Alex Marcotullio showed that he is capable of running the offense and he is a good enough shooter to keep defenses honest.  JerShon Cobb adds depth on the wings, though he needs to become a more consistent shooter.  Freshman Tre Demps will provide a good back-up at the point guard position.

The Not-So-Good:  The loss of Michael Thompson will be felt more for his scoring ability than his point guard skills.  The lack of a solid low-post presence does hurt, though Northwestern’s offense doesn’t rely on having a low-post scorer.  There is not much depth on the bench and the team’s style of play is dependent on controlling tempo.

 

The Question Mark:  Is there a 3^rd scorer to go with Shurna and Crawford?  Mirkovic would seem to be a good third option, but a lot of the offense runs through him on the high post.  Marcotullio is more of a distributor than scorer.  Cobb, if he can consistently hit the mid and long-range jumper, could step up as the 3^rd option.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Is this the year the Wildcats get to the NCAA Tournament? I think it is.  While the non-conference schedule isn’t easy, there are a lot of winnable games, and if they can get to 10 conference wins, I think a Top 5 Big 10 finish will get them a bid.

Ohio State

 

The Good:  Last year’s team was considered good enough to be a National Champion, and there is still a lot of talent left, starting with Player of the Year candidate Jared Sullinger.  Sullinger who is a fantastic scorer and rebounder has also been developing his mid-range jumper to make him that much more of a threat.  The other returning starter from last year, William Buford, is a skilled mid and long-range shooter and a solid defender.  Point guard Aaron Craft showed great quickness on both ends of the floor and excellent court vision.  Deshaun Thomas can score in many ways and is excellent in the open floor.  Jordan Sibert and Lenzelle Smith Jr. provide great depth at the guard positions.  Add to this, heralded freshmen Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, and Sam Thompson, and you have one of the most talented teams in the country.  Williams should make an impact immediately around the rim, freeing up Sullinger to play inside and out.

The Not-So-Good:  This is a young team, with Buford the only upperclassman among the main rotation.  The loss of leaders David Lighty, Jon Diebler and Dallas Lauderdale could have an impact in close games.  Also, freshman LaQuinton Ross did not qualify to play this season, though some have said he may try to qualify in time for the second semester.  Ross would have done a good job stretching the defense much in the way Diebler did for Sullinger.  Defensively, the loss of Lighty, who could guard multiple positions will hurt.

 

The Question Mark:  Is Craft ready to assert himself as a leader?  It will be important for Craft, as the starting point guard now, to put controlling the team on both ends of the floor as his priority.  Everyone appreciates the flashy plays he can make, but for this team to go far, he will need to show that he can control the pace of the game as well.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Ohio State should be in position to win the Big 10 and get a #1 seed again in the NCAA Tournament.  They have to be considered one of the frontrunners for the National Title, but again, this is a young team, and unless they mature throughout the season, they can see themselves upset again before the Final Four.

Penn State

 

The Good:  New coach Patrick Chambers comes to a team which lost almost all of its major contributors last season.  There is some talent here though.  Point guard Tim Frazier is very quick, a good defender, and knows how to distribute the ball.  Sophomores Jermaine Marshall and Billy Oliver gained valuable experience last season and should improve with more playing time this season.  Sasa Borovnjak returns from an ACL injury and should give the Nittany Lions a physical presence in the paint.  Freshmen Patrick Ackerman and Ross Travis should gain significant minutes right away.  Travis will be counted on to be a slasher and scorer, while Ackerman gives another big presence in the paint.

The Not-So-Good:  The loss of 4 of the top 5 players from last season means that a lot of points and rebounds will need to come from elsewhere.  Frazier will be a good leader on the floor, but it may be well into the season before Chambers settles on a comfortable rotation.

 

The Question Mark:  Will Chambers be able to make people care about Penn State basketball?  Coming off a successful stint as head coach of Boston University, Chambers has the respect of his peers and the dynamic personality to get players to work hard for him.  But this is still Penn State, and football has always come first.  Chambers can build something here, but people will need to be patient.

 

What Will March Bring?:  A tough non-conference schedule followed by a conference schedule in one of the top conferences is not the recipe for a big season.  It will definitely help the team in the coming seasons, but for this year, 11-13 wins may be the best you can expect.

Purdue

 

The Good:  Usually the loss of your 2 best players would be a major cause of concern, but it shouldn’t be for Coach Matt Painter this season.  He has plenty of talent back, including the return of Robbie Hummel.  Hummel who missed the last season and a half due to 2 knee injuries is one of the top players in the country when healthy.  He can score inside and out, is a strong defender and a good leader.  Point guard Lewis Jackson does a great job controlling the offense and using his size and quickness to get into the defense.  Ryne Smith and DJ Byrd give the team two wing options who can stretch the defense with their jumpers.  Add Kelsey Barlow, who is a strong ballhandler and defender, and you have a very deep backcourt.  Anthony Johnson is back after redshirting last year to provide scoring off the bench.  Travis Carroll will provide good defense and rebounding in the post.  Freshmen Jacob Lawson and Donnie Hale are raw, but tough, and one of them should work their way into the rotation.

The Not-So-Good:  Even though JaJuan Johnson wasn’t a true post player, he did give the Boilermakers a legitimate option on the blocks.  Right now, Hummel is the only developed post player, but he is better off when he can work in and out.  Again, outside of Hummel, there are no proven scorers to replace Johnson and E’Twaun Moore. Jackson’s size makes it tough for him, Byrd and Smith are one-dimensional scorers.  Barlow has the best shot of stepping up his game to the next level.

 

The Question Mark:  Will Hummel stay healthy and finish off his career the right way?  I am just going to leave this as a yes.  Hummel deserves to finish off the great career he has had in style.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Last year’s 26 win season won’t happen again, but this is a team capable of 20 wins.  Look for a Top 5 Big 10 finish, a NCAA Tournament bid and the chance to win a game or two if Hummel plays to form.

Wisconsin

 

The Good:  Even with the loss of senior leaders Jon Leuer, Keaton Nankivil, and Tim Jarmusz, Coach Boy Ryan has one of the best guards in the country in Jordan Taylor to lean on.  Taylor proved to not only be an explosive scorer, but he showed he can take over games when necessary.  Having Josh Gasser in the backcourt with him will allow Taylor to focus more on scoring than distributing, but he is a good point guard in his own right.  Mike Bruesewitz is a high energy player who finds a way to get involved in every play.  Ryan Evans is an athletic wing who gives Ryan a slasher on offense.  Jared Berggren is skilled big man who can play inside and out.  Freshman Jarrod Uthoff should get immediate minutes with his long frame and ability to knock down the mid-range jumper.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Leuer was more than a dependable player, his competitive drive fueled the team.  He and Nankivil were also the best Badgers on the glass.  The remaining frontcourt players are skilled, but they need to bulk up to handle the rigors of the Big 10.  Also, Gasser and Evans will both need to become more dependable perimeter shooters in order to keep the court spread.  The Badgers play tough team defense, but it is not an extremely athletic group, so they need to control the pace of play more than most teams.

 

The Question Mark:  Who emerges as the team’s second scorer? Taylor will not be able to handle the scoring load alone.  Gasser and Evans can score, but need to become better shooters.  Brusewitz will get his points, but he is not capable of big numbers every night.  Berggren has a game similar to Leuer’s and the team will probably look to him to start producing more.

 

What Will March Bring?:  While I don’t see them matching last year’s 25 wins, this is still a team capable of 20.  They should finish in the top half of conference and will likely get themselves another NCAA bid.

That wraps up the 2011-2012 Big 10 Preview – make sure to check back later this week for a look at the Big 12 this season.  Leave your comments, email me at ed@nbadraftblog.com and follow me on Twitter: @NBADraftBlog

 

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As has been the case in recent years, the ACC is once again a very top-heavy league, with 2 dominant teams (North Carolina and Duke), 6 teams all around .500 and 4 teams struggling.  The good news is that a slew of new coaches are starting to rejuvenate a lot of the programs which had settled at average.

Overview

 

Player of the Year:  Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

Freshman of the Year: Austin Rivers, Duke

Defensive Player of the Year: John Henson, North Carolina

 

Predicted finish

1. North Carolina
2. Duke
3. Virginia Tech
4. Virginia
5. Florida State
6. Maryland
7. North Carolina State
8. Miami
9. Clemson
10. Boston College
11. Georgia Tech
12. Wake Forest

Boston College

 

The Good:  With 11 newcomers (9 freshmen and 2 transfers), Coach Steve Donahue will have the opportunity to build the program the way he wants.  Guards Gabriel Moton and Danny Rubin gained some valuable experience in their freshmen seasons last year, and Rubin showed the ability to hit from long-range.  Freshman Ryan Anderson is a skilled big-man who will be asked to step-in immediately and be a big contributor.  Freshman center KC Caudill has great size and good scoring ability around the lane and will give the Eagles a big body to defend against some very strong frontcourts in the ACC.

The Not-So-Good:  It’s never easy to lose your 5 top scorers, and it’s worse when one of them was 1^st round NBA pick Reggie Jackson.  With 11 new players, rest assured that there will be growing pains.  Leading rebounders Joe Trapani and Corey Raji are also gone, so the young big men will need to play physical from the get-go.

The Question Mark:  Can transfer Deirunas Visockas stay healthy enough to give the Eagles a strong outside shooter?  Visockas, who only played 31 games at Lafayette in 4 years due to injuries, has the ability to stretch the defense and with the young big men getting adjusted to college ball, any help they can get from the perimeter will make it easier.

 

What Will March Bring?:  I wouldn’t expect much this season, and the post-season may be a stretch, but as the new players start to gel as a team, there is enough talent to avoid the bottom of the ACC, and plenty to have people thinking about the future.

Clemson

 

The Good:  Coach Brad Brownell is another who will need to make do without some of his top players from last year’s NCAA Tournament team.  Unlike, BC though, there is still some left over talent from that squad, starting with point guard Andre Young and forwards Milton Jennings and Devin Booker.  Young is lightning quick and a fantastic defender.  He has improved as a shooter, but his greatest strength is still breaking down defenses.  Jennings is long and athletic, and does a great job wreaking havoc on the offensive boards.  Booker brings some toughness to the frontline and showed a lot of improvement as an offensive player last year.  Tanner Smith brings leadership and smart play when he is on the floor.  2 athletic freshmen forwards – Bernard Sullivan and KJ McDaniels will contribute solid minutes right away and should provide some much needed scoring.

The Not-So-Good:  The loss of Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant hurts not only from a scoring perspective, but from a leadership one as well.  A real low-post presence also is needed to compete in the ACC this year.  Booker does a good job, but it undersized, and 7’2 Catilin Baciu has yet to make an impact in 3 seasons.  Perimeter shooting is also something that the Tigers need to address this season.

The Question Mark:  Can Andre Young step up as both a distributor and a scorer this season?  The loss of Stitt and Grant took along almost 27 points a game between them, and while the freshmen class has some potential scorers, Young will be counted on to lead the team early in the season.

 

What Will March Bring?:  While Clemson will be competitive, I don’t think this group has another NCAA tournament bid in them this season.  Enough talent to see the NIT, and possibly get to 16-18 wins if the freshmen mature quickly.

Duke

 

The Good:  This is Duke, so you know there is plenty of talent.  The backcourt alone may be the best group of guards in the country.  It starts with returning guards Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry, and Tyler Thornton.  Add to that the stellar freshmen Austin Rivers and Quinn Cook, and you have a complete backcourt.  All five are capable of running the offense, but each brings their own individual talents to the team.  Curry is the best shooter on the team and will always draw attention on the perimeter.  Dawkins and Thornton are both athletic and do a good job getting into the defense.  Rivers is a fantastic playmaker, who just needs to learn a little patience.  Cook is the best pure point guard on the team, and once he is fully healthy, will be a great distributor and defender.  2 other freshmen, Alex Murphy and Michael Gbinije, are both athletic wings who can provide some scoring off the bench.

The Not-So-Good:  While Duke has 4 players listed over 6’10, the group as a whole is very underwhelming.  Mason Plumlee has a great deal of promise as a rebounder and defender, but can be an offensive liability.  Same can be said of his brother Miles Plumlee, though he isn’t as good a defender.  Marshall Plumlee is a better offensive player than his brothers, but needs to bulk up to compete in the ACC.  Ryan Kelly is too soft to play on the interior, so he settles for shooting perimeter jumpers.  With some very talented frontcourts on their schedule, this group can be a liability.

The Question Mark:  Can Coach K control Austin Rivers?  No one doubts either Krzyzewski’s coaching ability or Rivers’ talent.  But, if the Asia trip was any indication, Rivers is still a long way from being a typical Duke “team” player.

 

What Will March Bring?:  There is more than enough talent for this team to win 30 games and make another Final Four appearance for Coach K.  But the underwhelming frontcourt will probably prevent them from beating out North Carolina for the ACC title, and depending on what kind of Tournament draw they get, an opponent with a talented frontcourt can really do damage.

Florida State

 

The Good:  Even with the loss of defensive stalwarts Chris Singleton and Derwin Kitchen, the Seminoles will still be a very good defensive team, especially with a trio of strong, experienced frontcourt players in Jon Kreft, Bernard James, and Xavier Gibson.  James has the potential to be the breakout star of the group with his ability to rebound and block shots.  Coach Leonard Hamilton also has a trio of perimeter shooters who can help stretch the defense in Deividas Dulkys, Michael Snaer, and Ian Miller.  Two heralded freshmen will also give the team a boost on the offensive end in Antwan Space and Terry Whisnant.  Graduate student transfer from Arkansas, Jeff Peterson, will give the Seminoles a reliable ballhandler who can control the offense.

The Not-So-Good:  As good as they are defensively, the Seminoles can have some serious scoring droughts.  It’s entirely possible that other than Snaer, their two best scorers may be the freshmen Space and Whisnant.  The lack of reliable low-post scoring plagued them last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was the same this season.  Also, in order for them to win, they really need to dominate the pace of the game.  If it gets up-tempo, then chances are they are going to fall behind quick.

The Question Mark:  As I stated above – where will the scoring come from? Snaer definitely has the potential to score quick and in bunches, but needs to be more consistent.  James has great athleticism, but hasn’t proven himself as a scorer.  Gibson is skilled as on offensive player, but needs to assert himself more.

 

What Will March Bring?:  This could be a close call for the Seminoles when it comes to the NCAA Tournament this season.  The defense will be there, but I don’t see it carrying them all season long.  Offense will need to come from somewhere.  I’m guessing about 18 wins and one of the last teams in the Tournament.

Georgia Tech

 

The Good:  New Head Coach Brian Gregory will have his hands full after Iman Shumpert declared early for the NBA Draft and Brian Oliver transferred to Seton Hall.  Glen Rice, Jr. will be the go-to guy this year for the Yellow Jackets.  A versatile player who can score, rebound and distribute the ball, Rice is just a consistent jumper away from being a top ACC player.  Joining Rice in the backcourt will Mfon Udofia, a solid point guard who is capable of running the offense and is an above-average defender.  While not much of a scorer, he does a good job getting the ball to his teammates.  Center Daniel Miller showed some flashes on both ends of the floor in his sophomore year.  He has great size and will need to hold down the lane for this undersized Georgia Tech squad.  Freshman forward Julian Royal is a skilled scorer around the basket, with the ability to hit the mid-range jumper.

 

The Not-So-Good:  Perimeter shooting is a problem for the Yellow Jackets with sophomore guard Jason Morris being the only viable deep threat.  The frontcourt will also need to be more aggressive on defense, especially rebounding.  Last year, the 2 leading rebounders were both guards.  There isn’t a lot of depth on the bench, so the primary rotation players will need to be effective and do what they can to stay on the court.

The Question Mark:  After Rice, who is going to score for Tech?  Udofia is the 2^nd leading returning scorer at less than 7 points a game, but is not really a good shooter.  Morris has good size at the shooting guard position, and with more shot attempts could become a decent 2^nd option.  There is a good chance that the freshman Royal becomes one of the teams top scorers this season.

 

What Will March Bring?:  This is a young team getting adjusted to a new coach, so I wouldn’t expect Year 1 to go very smoothly for Gregory.  Last season’s 13 wins would be good for this group, so my best guess is between 10 and 13 wins this season, but reason to be hopeful in the future.

Maryland

 

The Good:  New coach Mark Turgeon has already made waves on the recruiting trail for next season, but this season he is going to need to make do with a roster missing NBA Draft pick Jordan Williams, along with 3 more of the team’s top 5 scorers from last season.  The good news is that the 2^nd leading scorer, sophomore Terrell Stoglin is back and should improve on a very good first season.  A quick point guard with a developing shooting touch, Stoglin will do a very good job running the Maryland offense.  He will be joined in the backcourt by a trio of shooting guards who are all capable of scoring in bunches and playing tough defense.  Sean Mosley is more of a slasher than shooter, but when he gets into a defense, he does a great job opening up space for others.  Pe’Shon Howard is capable of playing either guard position and started to show his scoring ability in the 2^nd half of last season.  Freshman Nick Faust can be a star in this conference with great size and the ability to score in a variety of ways based on the mismatches he creates.

The Not-So-Good:  The frontcourt leaves a lot to be desired, especially after Williams left school to go pro and Haukur Palsson decided to play pro ball in Europe.  James Padgett is tough, but under-sized, and needs to be more consistent to stay on the floor.  Berend Weijs and Ashton Pankey are inexperienced and need to get tougher to play in the ACC.  Without solid frontcourt play, the guards may find it tough to get the openings they need to create shots.

The Question Mark:  Alex Len.  The Terps added the 7’1 Ukranian recently, but not many are sure what kind of impact he will have.  He is a skilled big man, but he lacks strength and is probably a year away from being a contributor to the team.  If he adjusts quickly, it may mean a few more wins.

 

What Will March Bring?:  I wouldn’t expect too much this year from Maryland.  While the backcourt looks very good, the frontcourt will most likely have a very rough season.  Probably a middle of the pack conference finish, 17-19 wins and a borderline NCAA team.

Miami

 

The Good:  New coach Jim Larranaga has an experienced backcourt duo to help him implement his new offense.  Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott are both excellent ballhandlers, passers and long-range shooters.  With the frontcourt woes (discussed below), Both Grant and Scott will need to find a way to keep the offense moving without a real interior threat.  Freshman Bishop Daniels will be an exciting player for the Hurricanes, with the ability to get to the rim and finish in spectacular fashion and the ability to stretch the defense with his shooting.  There is good size on the wings with Garrious Adams and Rion Brown, though the team will need them to become more consistent on both ends of the floor.

 

The Not-So-Good:  With Reggie Johnson out until January rehabbing from a knee injury, the Canes were hoping Julian Gamble could help fill the void, but he tore his ACL and is out for the season.  Johnson, who has had conditioning issues before, can hopefully come back in good enough shape to get near his double-double averages.  6’10 Florida transfer Kenny Kadji is now eligible, but he doesn’t have the game experience of Gamble.  Overall, there is not a lot of experience on the bench, so the young players will need to step up and contribute.

The Question Mark:  Will there be carryover from the football scandal that has enveloped the Hurricane football program.  Already, the scandal has implicated former coach Frank Haith, as well as senior DeQuan Jones.  While they are only allegations at this point, will it become a distraction come basketball season, and if so, how does Larranaga control it.

 

What Will March Bring?: If Johnson comes back healthy in January, there is a possibility that Miami can get near .500 in ACC play.  That might not be enough to get them a Tournament bid this year, especially with some tough non-conference games in December.  Most likely this is a 16-18 win team, if Johnson comes back in condition to play.  If not, more likely in the 12-14 win range.

North Carolina

 

The Good:  You can start almost anywhere with the good on this team.  Point guard Kendall Marshall led the team to a second-half resurgence last season after Larry Drew II abruptly left the team.  Marshall does a great job getting his teammates the ball in the best position for them to score, can get into the lane and draw defenders, and is dangerous in the open court.  No one benefitted more from Marshall’s play than Harrison Barnes.  With Marshall drawing defenders and seeing the floor well, Barnes got the types of looks he wasn’t getting with Drew.  While Barnes is an excellent shooter, look for him to attack the basket more this season.  The frontcourt duo of Tyler Zeller and John Henson have improved on both ends of the floor, though Zeller is the more polished offensive player, and Henson is the type of defensive player who can change an opponent’s offensive game plan.  Dexter Strickland and Reggie Bullock provide good depth at the guard position, though they need to become more consistent shooters.  Freshmen James McAdoo and PJ Hairston will contribute plenty skill-wise on both ends of the floor, and McAdoo may find himself in the starting lineup on plenty of occasions.

 

The Not-So-Good:  For a very good scoring team, it is surprising how mediocre they are as a team from the free-throw line.  The loss of Leslie McDonald for the season to an ACL injury will hurt from a depth and experience point of view, though not as much if Hairston comes through early on in his career.  Low-post depth can also be an issue if Zeller or Henson get hurt or in foul trouble, but again, McAdoo can possibly help here.

 

The Question Mark:  Will Barnes put together the kind of season everyone expected last season?  Even after some very good games in the 2^nd half of last season, people still seemed to be disappointed with Barnes’ performance considering the hype surrounding him.  It will be interesting to see how people react if he doesn’t put up the numbers they expect from him.

 

What Will March Bring?:  This is certainly a Final Four caliber team, and possibly a National Championship team as well.  They will have to be considered one of the top 2 or 3 favorites, and barring any major injury problems or other issues, I expect them to win over 30 games and be at least in the Final Four.

North Carolina State

 

The Good:   Though new coach Mark Gottfried has lost Tracy Smith to graduation and point guard Ryan Harrow to graduation, he does have some talent to work with in his first season, starting with sophomore CJ Leslie.  Leslie, an explosive forward, is capable of a double-double on many nights, and should become the go-to scorer with Smith gone.  Helping stretch the defense to give Leslie room is the Wolfpack’s top shooter, Scott Wood.  Wood has fantastic range and is a very good decision-maker with the ball.  Guard Lorenzo Brown is very capable as both a distributor and scorer, though he needs to become a more consistent perimeter shooter.  Freshman forward Tyler Harris, the younger brother of 1^st round NBA pick Tobias, has the ability to make an impact right away with his skill level and versatile scoring.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The frontcourt is undersized, though 7’1 Jordan Vandenberg could help if developed more on the offensive end.  Richard Howell is strong, but at only 6’8, will have trouble with most big men. Same with 6’9 DeShawn Painter, who is athletic, but doesn’t have great strength.  Perimeter shooting can be an issue with Wood and Harris being the only reliable deep threats.

 

The Question Mark:  How will Mark Gottfried do having been out of coaching for a few years?  While no one denies that Gottfried knows the game, even a few years away can make him rusty, particularly dealing with a new group of players.  If Gottfried can get the team to buy into him and his plan, State can surprise some teams.

 

What Will March Bring?:  Even without Smith, I think they will improve on last year’s 15 win season.  Certainly not NCAA Tournament-level, but I think 18 wins is possible and a trip to the NIT.

Virginia

 

The Good:   Coach Tony Bennett’s 3^rd season should continue the upward trend since he took over the program.  Leading the way is powerhouse Mike Scott, who was granted a medical hardship after only playing 10 games last season.  Before he was injured, he was averaging a double-double for the Cavaliers.  Strong enough to battle with a lot of big men, even though he is 6’8, Scott is also a surprisingly good shooter, with a variety of low post moves and nice touch out to 15 feet.  The backcourt is also in good hands with sophomores Joe Harris and KT Harrell and senior point guard Sammy Zeglinski.  Harris showed great range on his jumper last season, leading the Cavs in 3-pointers made.  With excellent size on the wing, he has little trouble getting good looks.  Harrell does a great job attacking the rim and is very good at finding open spots to hit his mid-range jumper.  Zeglinski is not spectacular, but he is efficient and has experience running the offense.  Junior Jontel Evans is also very good at running the offense and is an excellent on-ball defender.  Center Assane Sene is a very good shot blocker and his size give Scott more room to operate around the basket.  Freshmen Malcolm Brogdon and Paul Jesperson will provide energy and scoring off the bench.

 

The Not-So-Good:  This is not a very athletic team and they rely on discipline and control on both ends of the floor.  If they can’t control the pace of the game, then there is a chance they will fall behind very quickly and this isn’t a team that scores points quick enough to make up big deficits.  Defensively, they play tough, but again, the athleticism of other teams can be too much for this team.

 

The Question Mark:  Will Mike Scott come back 100%?  If he does, he can be one of the top players in the conference, with the ability to keep Virginia in games.  If not, the team may be forced to do most of their scoring from the perimeter, which isn’t always the best way to go.

 

What Will March Bring?:  This will be Bennett’s best team yet at UVA and with a lot of winnable non-conference games, if they can get to .500 in the ACC, I have a feeling they may find themselves in the NCAA Tournament.  They can’t afford to lose any of the games they should win though.  Look at them to have 19-21 wins this season.

Virginia Tech

 

The Good:  Though Coach Seth Greenberg has lost his go-to guy in Malcolm Delaney and reliable Jeff Allen, this is a Hokie team which will be a tough game for anyone come February and March.  Point guard Erick Green is back and will be counted on to not only lead the team, but pick up some of the scoring lost from Delaney and Allen.  He has good size and is quick to the basket and in the open court, he just needs to develop a better mid and long-range jumper to keep teams off-balance.  Dorenzo Hudson is back after receiving a medical hardship last season, and he should find himself again as a key component for this Tech squad.  Hudson is a physical player and uses his strength well to fight his way to the rim.  He is also a very good perimeter defender.  Senior Victor Davila is a skilled big man, but he needs to be more aggressive on both ends of the floor.  The freshman class may be the best in Hokie history, led by forward Dorian Finney-Smith.  Finney-Smith is very athletic and able to score in a variety of ways.  CJ Barksdale is also an athletic scorer who has added plenty of muscle to help him compete right away with ACC power forwards.  Guards Marquis Rankin and Robert Brown will be the Hokie’s backcourt of the future, giving them good defense and plenty of scoring ability.

 

The Not-So-Good:  The loss of Allen leaves this team very vulnerable on the boards, especially on the defensive end.  Davila will need to step up and be more aggressive on the glass, or he may find himself sitting in place of Barksdale.  Perimeter shooting can be an issue as well with the loss of the reliable Delaney.  Finally, the lack of a true big man could hurt them, especially come ACC season.

 

The Question Mark:  Who will step up as the go-to guy in Delaney’s place.  There are a few options, with Green and Hudson both options, but by the end of the year, it is possible that Finney-Smith will show everyone what the hype was about.

 

What Will March Bring?: Another season and most likely another case where the Hokies are one of the last teams out of the NCAA Tournament.  They have added some quality non-conference games to their schedule, but they will need to make sure they win at least 9 ACC games, which will only happen if the heralded freshmen mature quickly.  I guess they will win 19-21 games, and will get a Tournament bid this season.

Wake Forest

 

The Good:  Unfortunately, there isn’t much to put in this section, as Coach Jeff Bzdelik just can’t seem to catch a break.  Travis McKie is the star of this team, and may be on e of the best players in the ACC.  Extremely athletic and versatile on both ends of the floor, McKie will be counted on to make this team competitive.  Point guard CJ Harris is a natural leader, with great court vision and the ability to break down defenses.  He should be joined in the backcourt by Tony Chennault.  Chennault is another very good point guard, which should allow Harris more freedom to score.  There is some good size on the interior with senior Ty Walker and sophomore Carson Desrosiers, both seven-footers with strong bodies.  Freshmen Daniel Green and Chase Fischer will have the opportunity for quality minutes immediately.

The Not-So-Good:  Off-the-court troubles have caused the Wake program to lose some quality players. The above mentioned Ty Walker will miss half the season due to an off-court incident, and Melvin Tabb and JT Terrell were both dismissed from the program following off-season arrests.  This has depleted even more the talent that Coach Bzdelik has to work with.  They will need to figure out a way to make sure McKie has the ball in his hands as much as possible, but with the lack of a real low-post threat, look for teams to play the perimeter tight.

 

The Question Mark:  When will things start to turn around at Wake?  There is some very good talent here, just not enough of it, and I don’t see Bzdelik to be a guy who can rebuild a program.  It may be a few more years of misery and a new coach who will finally right this ship.

 

What Will March Bring?:  14 wins may be the ceiling for this group, and 1 or 2 ACC wins is a definite possibility.  March will bring a merciful end to the season.

 

That wraps up the 2011-2012 ACC Preview – make sure to check back next week for a look at the Big 10 this season.  Leave your comments, email me at ed@nbadraftblog.comand follow me on Twitter: @NBADraftBlog

 

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With NCAA rules allowing college basketball teams the opportunity to partake in international tours every 4 years, more and more programs are using this to not only get the opportunity to learn more about their players, but to give the players the opportunity to experience new cultures and people.  This summer alone, teams played in Italy (Illinois, Iowa State), Netherlands (Mississippi State, Villanova), Brazil (Northern Iowa, USC), Canada (Baylor), and the Bahamas (Creighton, Louisville.)  One of the most interesting trips of all was a 2-week, 4-game trip to China and Dubai by the Duke Blue Devils.


 

What made this trip an even greater experience for the current Duke players is that they were joined by some famous Duke alumni, including Grant Hill, Kyrie Irving, and Nolan Smith.   The alumni, all dealing with the NBA lockout, went along on the trip to provide moral support, and to hopefully help shape the next great Duke team.  I had the opportunity recently to discuss the trip with Nolan, both the experience for him and for the team.

While many people point to the fact that teams get to practice for 10 days before any of these trips, which is certainly an advantage for the upcoming season (See Mike DeCourcy’s great article on the advantage of foreign trips here), there is much more to these trips than playing basketball.  “The opportunity to play against kids in different countries is a big advantage”, says Smith.  “Beyond that, the cultural opportunities, meeting people you normally wouldn’t meet, seeing how much people love the game in different countries are a huge part of these trips.”

First up, the team headed to China, where they played games in Kunshan, Beijing and Shanghai.  “It was an amazing place, great cities, so many people”, said Smith.  Among the sites the team visited were the Silk Markets and the Great Wall of China.  “It is a very different world over there, but it was good to be the ones looking confused at what was going on.”

And while all three games had their competitive moments, Duke managed to win all three games by double digits.  Yet, Smith came away impressed with the Chinese players.  “They were a very talented team, and you will probably see some of them in the draft one day.  There is a lot of size and a lot of talent.”  While the NBA influence has picked up in China since the year Yao Ming was made the #1 draft pick, Smith saw firsthand that influence.  “They watch so much NBA over there, they spend a lot of time imitating the moves they see, and it has made them better players.”

From China, the team headed to Dubai to take on the United Arab Emirates National Team.  Many have this image of Dubai as a lavish place, and Smith says it’s all true.  “It is definitely what you imagine.  They have a lot of money there, a lot of tall buildings.  The construction alone is amazing.  Our hotel was a actually a 7-star hotel.”

Duke was able to handle the UAE team easily, but Smith saw a lot to take from the game.  “It was a great place to finish the trip.  The fans were amazing; it was just a great atmosphere for the guys to play in.  The players are getting better also by watching the game more and more.”  It’s true that basketball has become a global game, even Smith was surprised by some of what he saw.  “The fans recognized me and I haven’t even played in the NBA yet.  It was great meeting them.”

For the current Blue Devils, Smith so many positives comes out of this trip for them.  “They are a very talented team, and I think they found leadership for this upcoming year from this trip.  Seth (Curry), Andre Dawkins and Ryan Kelly all stepped up and took control of the team.  Put that together with the all the talented freshmen and they should have a very good year.”

And how about Coach K, what did he learn from this?  “Coach (Krzyzewski) learned a lot about his players.  It is an adjustment without myself, Kyle (Singler) and Kyrie (Irving) not there this year.  But, by getting these games in early, he’s gotten a jump start on his master plan.  And, I know he will be watching the tape from these games over and over before the season.”

I’m sure most will expect another great season from Duke, and with the added advantage of extra practice time in August, could find them in the Final 4 once again.  Thank you to Nolan for providing some insight into the trip and the team itself.

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It’s not often that anyone gets to discuss NBA prospects from St. Bonaventure, but they have not only a real prospect this season, but Andrew Nicholson can find himself in the first round of the 2012 NBA Draft.  Having spent many nights fighting double teams, Nicholson has developed great toughness and a willingness to lead his team to victory, both qualities that NBA teams love in their draftees.  Can Nicholson become a good enough all-around player to vault into the first round? Let’s take a closer look at Andrew Nicholson:

Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure - Senior

Forward -  6'9, 225

(2010-2011 Stats) 20.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 57.1% FG, 71.1% FT

Offense

Post Skills- Nicholson has developed into a very strong post player, displaying a nice repertoire of moves and great touch around the basket.  He is comfortable setting up on either block, uses his lower body to seal off the defender and is comfortable making his move in either direction.  He has long arms allowing him to get most shots off easily against the defense, though he does need to add some bulk to back his man down easier – while he seals his man well, he gets pushed away from the lane too easily.  Most impressive is that there is usually very little wasted movement when he gets the ball and no unnecessary dribbles.  He needs to develop a better face-up game, as well as get more experience in pick and roll situations.

Footwork- Nicholson has excellent footwork, very fluid movements and the foot-speed to get around defenders in the post.  Most important, he does a good job with the amount of steps he makes on a move, preferring to take long strides once he seals his man off, especially on his very effective drop step.  On the perimeter, he doesn’t have the same fluidness, though he has improved.  Oddly enough, he does a great job navigating help defenders when in the post, but he loses control when he encounters help when driving from the perimeter.  However, he does have good quickness for his size and I expect him to show more improvement this year from the perimeter.

 

Ballhandling/Hands/Penetration- Nicholson is a good ballhandler for his size, keeping his dribbles low and close to his body.  Much more comfortable going to his right hand, he showed great improvement last season with the use of his left.  The one thing he needs to watch out for his awareness of the help defenders when he has his back to the basket.  He will make his move not knowing where the help will be coming from and be in the position to be stripped.  On the perimeter, he still does a good job controlling his dribble, but needs to get more confident going to his left hand.  Nicholson has excellent hands, can handle tough passes and always presents a good target to the passer.  As I mentioned earlier, he can lose to tend control on penetration when he runs into the help defenders.  Other than that, he does a good job at 6’9 finding ways to get past his man, though he needs to work on making better decisions once he makes the initial move.  He has become more versatile, showing the ability to pull up and hit a mid-range jumper, but he needs to look more at taking his move all the way to the rim.

 

Perimeter Shooting- Nicholson has become a decent mid-range shooter, and has even tried to expand his range out further.  When left open, he will knock down the mid-range jumper consistently.  When he is covered well, he does a good job using head and ball fakes to create space, and he has improved on hitting the jumper off the dribble, though certainly not up to NBA-level yet.  His form is very good – good lift and extension, plus follow-through.  His release time needs to get a bit quicker.  NBA defenders should be able to recover quick enough to force a bad shot.  As of now, he could be a very good option off a pick and pop, he just needs to get his shot off quicker.

Rebounding/Passing- While a very good rebounder, Nicholson isn’t a great offensive rebounder.  Mainly, it is because a lot of his moves take him away from the basket.  While he has the ability to not go directly at the rim and still score, it doesn’t put him in the best position for rebounds.  When he does get position, he does a very good job extending to secure the ball.  He also is very good at getting off good shots of the rebound and generally makes good decisions on whether to shoot or get the ball back out.  Passing, especially out of the post, is one area where he really could improve.  Part of it is, as his team’s only real offensive threat, he is subjected to a lot of double teams.  However, he needs to do a better job anticipating them and locating the open teammate.

 

Free Throw Shooting - Nicholson can stand to become a better free throw shooter, especially since he does a great job getting to the free throw line.  His mechanics are fine, though you can definitely see him start to miss more as the game goes on.  He almost doubled the amount of times he went to the line in his junior season, so he knows how to draw contact and finish.  If he can get to near 80% with his free throws, he will be tough to contain.

Defense

Post Defense- Nicholson is an average defensive post player, showing very good moments, but not quite ready to defend at the NBA level.  He positions himself well, but he needs to get more physical, especially with his lower body to force his man off the block.  He anticipates well, and does a good job denying the post, as well as fronting it.  However, his footwork is only average, and he is susceptible to quick moves, especially drop-steps.  He does see the court well and does a good job stepping in as a help defender.  If he does get more physical, he should be able to defend the power forward position well at the NBA level.

Perimeter Defense- Nicholson has made improvement guarding outside the lane over the last few years, but he still has significant issues he needs to work on to be able to do it well at the next level.  He positions himself well between his man and the basket well, and he does a good job keeping his hands and feet active.  While his footwork is fluid on the offensive end, it isn’t as good on the defensive side.  When defending on the pick and roll, he is often slow to hedge and then slow to recover.  He also has to watch a tendency to fall for head and ball fakes easily, as he doesn’t have the speed to recover.  He does close on shooters well and uses his long arms to disrupt jump shots.

Rebounding/Blocking- Nicholson is a very good defensive rebounder, using his body well to block out his man and going after the missed shot strong.  He secures the ball high and looks for his outlet man quickly.  He may have issues at the NBA level having the same success unless he gets a bit stronger.  Nicholson can be an effective shot blocker.  He has good timing and gets great extension.  However, he can be a bit slow to react to the shot, so he does a good job just playing tough defense and not picking up bad fouls by going after shots he won’t get to.

Summary & Intangibles

Athleticism – Above Average

BB IQ - High

 

Nicholson is a very good NBA prospect, but his offense is ahead of his defense right now, and if he can make those defensive adjustments this well, he will be a great get for a NBA team.  He has the ability to step in right away and play quality minutes, and with a few years experience facing double teams every night should give him the toughness necessary to handle the NCAA season.  I think if he plays as well as last season, he could be a high second round pick.  If he improves in the areas detailed above, teams will gladly take him at the end of the first round.

 

Next week, make sure to check back as I start a month of conference previews, starting with the ACC next Tuesday.  Leave your comments below, follow me on Twitter - @NBADraftBlog or email me at ed@nbadraftblog.com

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