The NBA Draft Blog Conference Previews continue with Part II of our look at the Pac 10. If you haven’t checked out Part I yet (Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, and Oregon State), click here.

 

In Part II, we take a look at two of the best in the conference – Stanford and Washington, a rebuilding power in UCLA, a sleeper squad in Washington State, and a USC program looking to recover from the damage Tim Floyd caused.

 

Stanford

 

The Good: Add Stanford to the list of teams here who lost their leading scorer, though life without Landry Fields will not be that bad for the Cardinal. Jeremy Green is an excellent long-range shooter with consistent form and a quick release. He needs to improve his first step to the basket and should add some muscle to allow him to take a few shots on his way. He is a very good defender, and can guard either guard position if needed. Without Fields, I am interested in seeing how Green handles being the focus of the defense. Another player who can be a difference maker is freshman Dwight Powell, a long, lean shot blocker. He has good footwork for his size (6’10) and has a soft touch around the rim. He will need to work hard at adding some bulk to play in the post. He will be especially hindered on the defensive end where he is just not strong enough yet to keep players out of the lane, though his shot-blocking ability may make them think twice. He will be joined in the frontcourt by returning starter Jack Trotter, a big man who works effectively in the high post with his strong passing skills and good court vision. Jarrett Mann is a capable point guard, doing a good job running the offense and pressuring the ball. He is not much of a scoring threat, but he can finish when he gets into the lane. Freshman Anthony Brown may be a year or so away from becoming an impact player, he has the scoring skills to demand immediate playing time. Once he bulks up and can finish strong, he will be a monster scorer in the Pac 10.

 

The Not-So-Good: Perimeter shooting, aside from Green, will be an issue. The Freshman Brown will provide some help, but they will need him to step up consistently to take pressure off of Green. Another potential issue is the lack of a bruising big man – the Cardinal’s group is skilled but lacking toughness. Powell can be intimidating though he still lacks the toughness to be a defensive force. Trotter is a battler, and freshmen John Gage and Stefan Nastic will provide some depth down low.

 

The Question Mark: Can Green become the go-to guy with Landry Fields gone? Green put up very good scoring numbers last season, but he often found himself with good shots from the attention Fields drew. As I said earlier, Green will need to improve his moves to the basket, especially his first step, if he wants to become the multi-faceted scorer that the Cardinal need him to be.

 

What Will March Bring?: Coach Dawkins has a young team, but they are very talented and should pick up some quality wins along the way. Most likely 22-25 wins and a NCAA Tournament bid for this group – 2^nd in the Pac 10.

 

UCLA

 

The Good: After a run of Final Four appearances under Ben Howland, the Bruins have stalled the last couple of years. I think this year that they will find their way back into the Tournament once again. Malcom Lee can play either guard position, though he is still much more effective in the open court rather than the halfcourt. He does a good job breaking down defenders, though his shot selection can use work, as well as his jumper. He is a good defender, especially pressuring the ball, but his effort can be consistent. Reeves Nelson had a successful freshman year, and will provide some much needed toughness down low. I would like to see him expand his offensive game out to 10-12 feet this season. On the defensive end, he needs to be more aggressive, especially going after rebounds and contesting shots.  Tyler Honeycutt is an athletic swingman with a great first step and the ability to finish strong.  He plays tough defense and can guard multiple positions.  Freshman Josh Smith is a monster for an 18 yr old at 6’10, 305 pounds. If he can control his weight and improve his conditioning, he can be one of the top big men in the country. He is extremely skilled on offense, using his body well to shield defenders, good hands and a nice touch. He needs to develop more moves in the post, but he seems to adjust quickly. Defensively, he moves well for his size, but his lack of leaping ability doesn’t make him a huge block threat. Tyler Lamb, a freshman shooting guard, has the ability to be a game changer eventually for the Bruins. He can score and defend, plays well in both fast-paced and slower offenses, and is a good rebounder for a guard. He will need to add some strength to get to the basket, and become more consistent with his jumper. Jerime Anderson is a solid point guard who provides good experience at the position.

 

The Not-So-Good: One of the reasons the results haven’t been up to par recently was inconsistent play, especially on the defensive end. The addition of Smith should give them the anchor they need in the middle to allow the perimeter players to pressure the ball. The frontcourt is thin behind Smith, and inexperienced. They will be in much better shape next season when the Wear twins become eligible. The loss of Michael Roll behind the three-point line is big, and Lee will need to become a better perimeter shooter. Lamb and fellow freshman Matt Carlino also will need to show that they can consistently hit the long-range jumper.

 

The Question Mark: What can UCLA expect out of Josh Smith this season? Smith is a huge presence, and just him being out on the court is a huge upgrade for the Bruins. However, the adjustment to the rigors of the NCAA level may be tough unless he loses weight. His stamina will most likely limit him to a maximum of 20 minutes for at least the first half of the season. Though in those 20 minutes, he can be capable of excellent production on both ends of the floor. No matter how much he plays, the Bruins are a better team with him on the floor.

 

What Will March Bring?: I think the Bruins become one of the first beneficiaries of the expansion to 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament. They are probably a 18-20 win team, with a couple of big wins and Josh Smith has a great chance at being Pac-10 Freshman of the Year if he can stay on the court.

 

 

USC

 

The Good: Coach Kevin O’Neill is still in the process of rebuilding the program after the debacle that was Tim Floyd. He will have some talent this season, though it is mostly young and untested. There are 2 returning starters to help school the new players – Alex Stepheson and Nikola Vucevic. Stepheson is a strong post defender and excellent rebounder. While he isn’t particularly skilled on offense, he does have the ability to finish in traffic. Vucevic is a good post scorer and has the ability to step out to 15 feet and knock down the jumper. He also uses his length well to rebound and alter shots. Three newcomers will help add some much needed talent to the backcourt. Freshmen Bryce Jones and Maurice Jones should provide the Trojans with stability in the backcourt for the next few years. Bryce Jones is at his best in transition, though he does have excellent slashing ability in the halfcourt. He needs to become a more consistent perimeter shooter. Maurice Jones is a lightning quick point guard with fantastic athletic ability. He is near unstoppable in transition and does a good job getting to the rim and finishing. The third newcomer may be the best - Fordham transfer Jio Fontan. Fontan, who will be eligible for the 2^nd semester, is an excellent all-around guard, with the ability to penetrate, score and make excellent decisions. From the moment he gets on the court, he should control the Trojans offense and play tough ball defense.

 

The Not-So-Good: Scoring was at a premium for this team last season, and losing leading scorer Dwight Lewis doesn’t help matters. Perimeter shooting, especially three-point range, could be the biggest weakness. One of the guards will need to provide at least the hint of a threat from outside to help keep the defense honest. Free-throw shooting was also a problem last season, though some of the culprits are now gone. There are also depth issues in the frontcourt behind Stepheson and Vucevic. Freshman Curtis Washington could provide some minutes, though he is still a work-in-progress on both ends of the floor.

 

The Question Mark: Will O’Neill be able to rebuild this program? The damage caused by Tim Floyd’s lack of oversight and the OJ Mayo scandal were a serious blow to a program which was on its way up. Enter O’Neill, who’s no-nonsense approach will not be for everyone, but it should produce a program which is judged on wins and losses and not on bad press. That being said, it will be at least a few years, maybe more, before we see the USC program back near the top of the conference.

 

What Will March Bring?: Another rough season for the Trojans, though with some additional talent, O’Neill may be on the right track here. Most likely 12-15 wins at most this year.

 

 

Washington

 

The Good: While last year’s team leader, Quincy Pondexter, has moved on to the NBA, there is plenty to still be excited about for Huskies fans. Guards Isaiah Thomas and Abdul Gaddy are back for Washington, as well as forward Justin Holiday. Thomas, who is listed at a generous 5’9, finds ways to get to the rim and can be dangerous in the open court. Of course, his lack of size makes it tough for him to operate on the perimeter, but he can nail the open jumper. Gaddy did not have the freshman year that many expected out of him, especially shooting-wise. I expect him to be much more confident on the court this season and to show more of the Gaddy we saw in high school. Defensively, both players do a good job pressuring the ball, but are susceptible to perimeter shooters. Holiday is an excellent defender and rebounder who uses his long arms to disrupt shots and passing lanes. Freshman Terrence Ross could provide a spark for the team on offense, though he needs to work on getting stronger. He will provide excellent scoring from the wing, including great range on his jumper. Venoy Overton provides excellent depth in the backcourt and is capable of guarding multiple positions.

 

The Not-So-Good: There is not a lot of depth in the frontcourt. Senior Matt Bryan-Amaning does a decent job, though undersized in the post. He will be joined by Junior College transfer Aziz N’Diaye will provide a solid presence in the middle, especially on the defensive end. Any offensive production they will get will be a bonus at this stage. After those two, there isn’t much to get excited about. The pace will be critical for this team, as the guards are much better in transition than they are in half-court sets. Thomas and Gaddy will need to be instigators on both ends of the floor.

 

The Question Mark: Who will step up as a leader in Pondexter’s place. Pondexter showed as a senior that he would do whatever he could to help his team win, and now that onus will fall on Thomas. Thomas is incredibly brash, but he can provide tough defense and big shots when needed. What he needs to do is make sure that his effort level is consistently high to keep his teammates behind him.

 

What Will March Bring?: The Huskies are the favorites to win the Pac-10 and I would be surprised if they didn’t win it. They are most likely a 23-25 win team and should get a good NCAA Tournament seed, though how far they get depends on the maturation of Thomas and Gaddy.

 

 

Washington State

 

The Good: Head Coach Ken Bone returns an experienced starting group who will provide a tough match-up to most teams in the conference. Junior Klay Thompson is one of the conference’s best and provides the Cougars with the ability to score anywhere on the court. He is also a tough defender and showed the ability to guard multiple positions. Reggie Moore is an excellent distributor and can also get into the lane and finish. Defensively, he is a solid on-ball defender, though he sometimes loses his man easily off of screens. DeAngelo Casto is a strong presence in the post on both ends of the floor. He has good hands and can finish in traffic, though he does need to improve his free throw shooting. Marcus Capers is a strong defender and provides another solid ballhandler in the backcourt. The bench should get some solid minutes out of Brock Motum and Charlie Enquist, along with newcomers Patrick Simon and Faisal Aden.

 

The Not-So-Good: The main issue the team had last season was a lot of times they went through stretches where they just seemed to watch Thompson do what he does and the focus just didn’t seem to be there. The defensive intensity needs to become more of a priority this season, especially around the lane, where the Cougars are undersized. Road games were a problem last season, but I am expecting an improvement with this experienced group.

 

The Question Mark: How much better can Klay Thompson get? Thompson showed last season that he could be both a jump shooter and a slasher. If he can become more consistent from 3, he will be tough for any defender to stop. He showed his toughness last season, often finding himself guarding players around he post and holding his own. The important thing is his attitude – he wants to keep getting better and he will.

 

What Will March Bring?: I like this team a lot, and they are legit post player away from being a dangerous team. However, that lack of a true post presence may come back to bite them. They will definitely improve over last season’s win totals – 20 sounds about right for this group and they will certainly be in contention for a NCAA Tournament bid. Thompson is a mid-late first rounder if he comes out next season.

 

 

That wraps up our look at the Pac 10. Make sure to check back tomorrow for Part I of the SEC Preview, including looks at Florida and Kentucky. As always, leave your comments, feel free to contact me, and follow NBA Draft Blog on Twitter - @NBADraftBlog

 

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The NBA Draft Blog Conference Season Previews continue with a look at a conference that has gone through some rough times recently – the Pac 10. With long-time stalwarts Arizona and UCLA having atypical seasons, it was up to Washington to show the nation that the conference still had talent. This year though, Arizona and UCLA are both improved, Stanford and Washington still have talent, as does Arizona State. Rebuilding is going on at USC, Cal and Oregon, while Oregon State and Washington State are going to be tough teams to play.

Part I will look at Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon and Oregon State.

 

 

Arizona

 

The Good: Coach Sean Miller has been tasked with one of the toughest jobs in college basketball – rebuilding the storied Arizona program. His first season, as expected, was full of many ups and downs, but things will look much better this season, and in the foreseeable future. This season, Miller returns 4 out of 5 starters, including sophomore stud Derrick Williams. Williams is a very strong and athletic forward, with excellent post and finishing skills. While he mainly operates around the rim, look for him to start to stretch his game a bit with a short-to-mid-range jumper. He is an excellent rebounder, though he is still picking up defensive skills he needs to improve, such as not falling for head fakes and standing his ground in the post. Shooting guard Kyle Fogg is the one of the Wildcats’ main perimeter threats, along with forward Jamelle Horne, and is a good perimeter defender. Look for him to show some more playmaking skills this year with the departure of Nic Wise. Horne is another athletic forward who can create shots and has a nice stroke from 3. He does a great job on the defensive end, anticipating shots and passes, and grabbing boards and blocking shots. Solomon Hill is the fourth returnee and he is an effective slasher and rebounder, with the ability to finish in traffic. Lamont Jones will most likely take over Wise’s point guard spot and should do what he does best, creating plays and breaking down defenses. The bench has good depth with Brandon Lavender and Kyryl Natyazkho putting in solid minutes last season. They will be joined by newcomers Daniel Bejarano, Jesse Perry, and Jordin Mayes. Bejarano will give the Wildcats another shooter to help stretch defenses.

 

The Not-So-Good: This is still a young team, with 1 senior and a few juniors. It will be extremely telling if we see this group making the same mistakes they made last season. Post play can be an issue against teams with strong, and big, front lines. The only 2 players taller than 6’8 are Natayazhko and Alex Jacobson, neither who are strong post defenders. Finally, losing an experienced point guard like Nic Wise leaves the Wildcats with inexperience at the position. The pressure will be on Jones to show immediately that he can control the offense for the team.

 

The Question Mark: Will Miller adjust the Wildcats’ offense due to inexperience at the point? This is an extremely athletic group, and they will play at their best in an up-tempo system. Look for Miller to have the team get out and run at every opportunity, with multiple players pushing the ball up. 2 quick guards and a group of wings who can finish strong will make the Wildcats a tough group to stop in transition.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: A trip back to the NCAA Tournament is a strong possibility, along with 20+ wins – of course it is all dependent on the continued development of Williams and the other young players. If Williams plays as expected, he should be a first rounder next year if he comes out.

 

 

Arizona State

 

 

The Good: There are a lot of new faces in Tempe for Coach Herb Sendek – there are 11 newcomers on the roster this season. Luckily, 3 of the players returning were starters last season, including the team’s 2 leading scorers – Rihards Kuksiks and Ty Abbott. Kuksiks is one of the best shooters in the country, though his game has been very one-dimensional. He does stretch the floor however, and that is extremely important in Sendek’s offense. Abbott is also a very good shooter, though he is much better than Kuksiks at creating his own shot. Jamelle McMillan will assume the point guard spot from the departed Derek Glasser. McMillan is a natural leader and playmaker, seeing the court well and making smart passes. He is also a tough on-ball defender, with good lateral movement. Freshman Keala King could make an impact immediately on the wing, with excellent athletic ability and the skills to work in isolation. Center Rusian Pateev is capable of playing in the high and low posts, and has a very good shot.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: Obviously the amount of newcomers on the team is disconcerting, though there is plenty of experience among the starters. Coach Sendek will probably need to do a lot of experimenting to test the new players to see where they fit in the rotation and how they respond to certain situations. While Pateev is a decent offensive player, he struggles on defense, especially against quicker post players. Freshman Jordan Bachynski could eventually overtake him if he shows what he is capable of on the defensive end. Sendek is known for a very deliberate style of play, but he has stated that he may pick up the tempo, though it is yet to be seen how this group handles the adjustment.

 

 

The Question Mark: Who is going to step up and provide bench production? Guard Trent Lockett showed that he is capable of giving quality minutes off the bench, but it is the frontcourt which may cause concern. Freshman Kyle Cain and JC Transfer Carrick Felix will need to show that they can play within Sendek’s offense immediately to help shore up the forward position.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: Unless the newcomers get off to an amazing start, it could be a tough season for the Sun Devils. Luckily, the experienced starters will make sure it is not a disaster of a season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up as a .500 team this year. Abbott and Kuksiks should get looks from NBA teams next summer, though I am not sure they are ready for that level.

 

 

California

 

 

The Good: Besides Oregon, no team has a bigger rebuilding job than the Cal Golden Bears. Gone are Pac-10 Player of the Year Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher, Theo Robertson, and Jamal Boykin. Combined this group accounted for around 60 points and 20 rebounds a day. While the remaining players don’t cause much excitement, the group of freshmen that Coach Mike Montgomery has brought in should keep Cal near the top of the Pac-10 in the upcoming years. Led by guards Gary Franklin, Allen Crabbe and Alex Rossi, the Cal recruiting class may be the best in the Pac-10. Franklin is a score-first point guard, though his court vision and passing are under-rated. Franklin has a nice shot from the perimeter, and has the ability to beat defenders quickly off the dribble. He still needs to improve his decision-making, which should come with experience. Rossi is an excellent perimeter shooter, can shoot off the dribble or off a screen, and has slowly improved his ability to find holes in the defense. He has good size and needs to work on using it to his advantage. Crabbe has very similar skills to Rossi, though he needs to work on getting stronger. Crabbe is the better defender, and has the potential to guard either guard position. Jorge Gutierrez returns and was effective at times as a second point guard on the floor.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: The frontline is thin with Harper Kamp returning from sitting out the year for knee surgery, Bak Bak who missed the second half of last season due to academics, and Markhur Sanders-Frison as the lone returnees. Freshman Richard Solomon and transfer Robert Thurman will need to provide help on both ends of the floor to keep the Bears competitive in a the Pac 10 this year. The largest team improvement will need to be on defense and rebounding, so look for Montgomery to focus on that and have his team play a style that emphasizes this.

 

The Question Mark: There are a lot of things we could put here, but I think the biggest question is going to be how Kamp plays this season? While it may seem odd to focus on a player who has averaged about 4 points and 3 rebounds for his career, Kamp is the kind of big man who will make the rest of the team better. He has very good court vision and knows how to find open teammates for easy shots. Also, he has the skills to be an effective scorer around the lane and has proved his toughness over the years.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: There is talent here, but they are young, and there will be growing pains. Montgomery will get the best out of them though, and I have a tough time seeing them with less than 14-15 wins.

 

 

Oregon

 

 

The Good: Talking about rebuilding jobs, Dana Altman is in for quite a test. He does have some talent to start with this season, including a few returning starters. Malcom Armstead is the leading returning scorer and one of the most disruptive defenders in the conference. With Tajuan Porter gone, Armstead will be the Ducks go-to shooter, though he doesn’t have Porter’s range. Forward Jeremy Jacob is an effective scorer in the post, though undersized, and has no problem mixing it up for rebounds. EJ Singler is a good all-around player, with the ability to score, rebound and pass, though he needs to shore up his perimeter defense. Freshman point guard Johnathan Loyd will battle for minutes immediately with his lightning speed and his ability to make plays on both ends of the floor.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: There isn’t a lot of depth here and the talent level needs some improvement, especially among the big men. Newcomer Martin Seifirth could help, though he is more of a project at this level. Perimeter shooting needs to become more consistent, though with no inside presence, open looks may be at a premium. Look for Singler to be used in different positions this season to maximize his productivity.

 

The Question Mark: Again, a lot of questions, but what people want to know is will Altman be able to turn the program around? Short answer is yes. Altman is an excellent coach and recruiter, and is well respected by the basketball community. Oregon is still a Pac 10 school with significant resources. The fan base will need to be patient, which I know is tough after the last few seasons, but this will take a few years to pull off.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: An early start on off-season recruiting. 10-12 wins seems most likely, though a good chance we see a breakout year from Singler.

 

 

Oregon State

 

 

The Good: Coach Craig Robinson has done a good job getting the Oregon State program on solid footing and will look to take the next step to winning program this season. There is still work to do, but things are certainly looking up. It starts with last year’s leading scorer Calvin Haynes. Haynes is a decent shooter, though is very good at finding holes in the defense. He showed improved ability from deep last season, though his shot selection still needs work. He is paired in the backcourt with Jared Cunningham, who is not much of a scorer but plays very tough defense. Joe Burton is an undersized post player, though he is very tough and a good rebounder for his size. He has a wide body and should look to use it in the post more this season. Omari Johnson and Daniel Deane provide more size and strength to the improving frontcourt, though neither is very good on the offensive end. Freshman Devon Collier may be the most talented forward on the team, though his play is very inconsistent. Fellow freshman Ahmad Starks will provide some speed in the backcourt and the ability to score in traffic.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: Scoring is an issue for this team, though part of that is due to a very deliberate offensive style. There aren’t many perimeter shooters on the team, so the team relies on various cut and screen techniques to get to the rim. Defensively, the team improved over the course of the season, though they are still susceptible to getting beat up and down the court by quicker teams. There will also need to be a focus on rebounding, as they are often overmatched at forward and center.

 

The Question Mark: Besides Haynes, where is the scoring going to come from? I am not sure there is much of an answer for this. If guard Roberto Nelson ever becomes eligible, he would surely help, but for now, the team will need to try and grab buckets wherever it can.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: If the defense stays consistent, this team should finish around the same as last season – 14-16 win range.

 

 

That’s it for Par I our look at the Pac 10. Make sure to check back tomorrow for the Part II, including Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington and Washington State. As always, leave your comments, feel free to contact me - ed (at) nbadraftblog (.) com, and follow NBA Draft Blog on Twitter - @NBADraftBlog

 

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The NBA Draft Blog Conference Season Previews continue with a trip out west to the Mountain West Conference. With BYU and Utah leaving after this season, it will be interesting to see the other teams make moves this season to try and establish themselves as power teams in the new-look conference. Like last season, the best of this conference includes BYU, UNLV and New Mexico, but San Diego State and its super sophomore Kahwi Leonard look to crash the group at the top. Colorado State should also show some improvement and could be one of those teams which establishes itself in the future as a conference power. Air Force, TCU, and Wyoming will struggle, but could be competitive, and Utah has reloaded with a lot of talent, but expect to have a year of adjustment.

 

 

Air Force

 

 

The Good: Coach Jeff Reynolds will look to rebound after injuries put on damper on last season. Unfortunately, the amount of talent returning will not be enough to compete in the Mountain West. Senior guard Evan Washington is the team’s best returning player and one of the best all-around talents in the conference. He is strong, sees the court well, can get to the rim and plays tough defense. Washington is joined by fellow returnees Tom Fow, Todd Fletcher, and Michael Lyons. Fow is the Falcons’ lone real long-range threat, while Fletcher and Lyons are tough defenders. Overall, the team as a whole plays excellent defense, though they are usually at an athletic disadvantage.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: It’s just not a talented team outside of Washington. While they are tough defensively, they have a lot of trouble scoring points, and are at a severe disadvantage on the boards. It is key for the Falcons to control the tempo in any game that the play – there are very few teams that they can compete against in a fast-paced game.

 

 

The Question Mark: There are not a lot of specific questions here, it is more of a general query - what do the Falcons need to do to be competitive against the growin talent levels in the league?  In the past, it has always been a combination of determination with strong execution, but the talent discrepensy may be too much now for them to overcome.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: A merciful end to the season. Another 10 win season is a strong possibility, though its possible they may win a couple of more, but not much more than that.

 

 

BYU

 

 

The Good: Coach Dave Rose will benefit from the return of All-American candidate Jimmer Fredette, a prolific, but streaky, scorer. Fredette is capable of scoring from the perimeter or by taking the ball strong to the basket. Fredette is also a capable playmaker, as well a decent rebounder. Defensively, he has some issues guarding out on the perimeter, but he does anticipate the ball well. Also returning is backcourt mate Jackson Emery. Emery does a great job spreading the floor with his three-point shooting, while playing very tough defense on the other end. Returning in the frontcourt is junior Noah Hartsock, the team’s leading rebounder. Hartsock is a capable finisher around the rim and provides tough defense down low. Hartsock will be joined in the frontcourt by Brandon Davies. The bench will be anchored by the Collinsworth brothers, Kyle and Chris. Chris has great size and is capable of scoring inside and out, while Kyle is a fantastic shooter who can guard multiple positions. All of these players run the court well, perfect pieces in Coach Rose’s up-tempo offense.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: The team doesn’t have a reliable post presence, which makes them even more reliant on transition baskets and perimeter shooting. As the loss to Kansas State in the NCAA Tournament showed, if the shots aren’t falling, they have very limited options to get points. One other thing the Cougars need to be wary of is a tendency to sit around and watch Fredette try and do everything. With Jonathan Tavernari and Tyler Haws gone this season, there will be a lot of extra shots available, and it will be to BYU’s advantage to have a another reliable scorer.

 

 

The Question Mark:  How good can Fredette be?  I know I am in the minority, but I think Fredette is as good as he is going to get.  Yes, he is scorer, but his ball-handling skills and his defense are merely average.  Part of the allure to Fredette last season was the surprise he became on a national level, though a closer look at his game doesn't show a lot that distinguishes him from other players.  I will say, he seems to be one of the toughest guards I have seen, and when he is heading to the rim, you shouldn't get in his way.  I just think that Fredette fans should prepare for a let down in terms of what he accomplishes this season

 

 

What Will March Bring?: Most likely the Mountain West Champions, though unless a 2^nd reliable scorer steps up to join Fredette, an early exit is most likely. Fredette will be given All-American consideration, and may sneak in as a third-teamer. Look for him also to be a 2^nd round pick in next year’s draft.

 

 

Colorado State

 

 

The Good: Coach Tim Miles returns an experienced group, including 4 players who started at least 30 games last season. In the backcourt, the Rams return sophomore Dorian Green and senior Adam Nigon. Both are capable perimeter scorers, and actually they are similar in almost all ways. Green is a better playmaker, while Nigon is a much stronger defender. Andy Ogide and Travis Franklin return up front and both seniors provide valuable experience. Ogide is long and athletic, is active around the basket and is very good at securing rebounds. Franklin is a strong wing who is very effective at getting to the rim, either in half-court or in transition. At the center position, Miles has two very talented, but still developing, players in Trevor Williams and Chad Calcaterra. Look for both to show significant improvement over the course of the season.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: As I just mentioned above, the big men are both very raw, and will be learning on the job at this level. While they both should improve, there are going to be rough nights. Williams sat out last season developing physically and should be prepared for the rigors of NCAA ball. Another issue the Rams need to watch for are turnovers, especially from the guards. Last season was Green’s first, and I would expect him to cut down on his mistakes this season. If he doesn’t, the Rams are lacking for other playmaking options. Bench production could be a problem, with Greg Smith the only player to contribute statistically off the bench. It will be important for Smith to contribute again, along with his brother, freshman Dwight Smith, and sophomore Pierce Hornug.

 

 

The Question Mark: Who will be the go-to player for the Rams? There is a fair amount of talent on this team, yet there is no one who stands out. When games were close last season, there never seemed to be that one guy the team could count on to get that final shot. Look for Dorian Green to step up in his second year and be that man. He has excellent playmaking ability and is quick enough to take his man off the dribble. Decision-making will be key in his development, but by the end of last season, he had showed significant improvement in this area.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: They should improve on last years 16-16 record, though not by much. Look for 18-19 wins and a middle of the conference finish in the MWC.

 

 

New Mexico

 

 

The Good: There could be a bit of a let down for the Lobos this season with the loss of team leaders Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez. This is not to say that Coach Steve Alford doesn’t have talent this season. Point guard Dairese Gary does a great job setting the pace for the team, and there aren’t many better in the conference at getting into the lane and drawing contact. While he doesn’t have the size and strength of Hobson, he is much quicker and is a capable playmaker. Also returning in the backcourt is two-year starter Phillip McDonald, an athletic shooting guard who is capable of scoring in bunches. He will be counted on to become a much better perimeter defender this season, as he has the length to be disruptive. Forward AJ Hardeman is an athletic power forward who does a great job running the floor. The Lobos will need him to be more aggressive on the glass this season. Alford has a group of newcomers who should keep New Mexico competitive this season and beyond, starting with transfers Emmanuel Negedu and Drew Gordon. Negedu is an athletic forward capable of scoring inside and out, but has a history of heart issues. Gordon, a transfer from UCLA, is an extremely good post player but did not live up to huge expectations at his prior school. Gordon should be a big time player once he becomes eligible for the second semester. Freshmen Alex Kirk was a top-rated high school center and will bring a fairly polished game to the Lobos, though he still needs to add some bulk to his frame. Tony Snell and Kendall Williams will bring energy and scoring off the bench.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: The void left by Hobson and Martinez, both in scoring and on the boards, will need to be filled by someone. Gary and McDonald should up their scoring averages, and a healthy Negedu will certainly contribute. The rebounding situation is more of a concern, with the remaining players needing to become much tougher and active on boards to make this a non-issue. Gordon will certainly help once he is eligible, and Kirk could provide valuable minutes down low. Hobson and Martinez also functioned as the team leaders and the team seemed to follow as they played. The returnees will need to step and up and show the leadership abilities to replace them, especially Gary.

 

 

The Question Mark: Will Gordon play up to his expectations? Gordon has the physical abilities and skills to dominate the MWC, though his play at UCLA was very inconsistent. Part of that can be blamed on his former coach’s system, which didn’t play well to Gordon’s strengths. If he comes in and plays with a chip on his shoulder, he could be the difference maker for this New Mexico team and could provide them with the go-to presence which will be lacking without Hobson. If he doesn’t and just goes through the motions, he will still contribute, but his lackluster play could affect the rest of the team.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: Certainly they should be a NCAA team, and if Gordon and Negedu play up to the hype, they can win the conference and even win a game or two in the Tournament. I’d say 23-25 wins is a safe bet for this group.

 

 

San Diego State

 

 

The Good: Coach Steve Fisher has assembled an impressive group of talent, starting with star sophomore Kawhi Leonard. Leonard, who averaged a double-double as a freshman, is a bit undersized at 6’7, but is one of the toughest players in college basketball. He has a knack for scoring around the rim and drawing fouls. Hopefully, he has improved his mid-range game over the summer. If so, he will be one of the best players in the country this year. He is joined in the frontcourt by the super-athletic Malcom Thomas, a rebounding and shot-blocking force. His ability down low makes it easier for Leonard to operate on the blocks. Point guard DJ Gay is a decent playmaker, handles pressure well, and is a good enough perimeter shooter to make teams pay who double in the post. Gay is also a catalyst on the defensive end with his quick hands and feet. Billy White provide some more toughness down low, does a great job on the offensive boards and is strong enough to finish in traffic. Freshmen guards LaBradford Franklin and Jamaal Franklin will provide good depth in the backcourt.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: Teams will be gunning for Leonard this season, and while I have no doubts he will handle his own, the rest of the team will need to step up to ensure that defenses just don’t swarm him. This is especially true on the perimeter, where the team will need another shooter to pair with Gay as a kickout on doubles in the post. Chase Tapely could be that guy, but it will be up to him to show he can do it consistently. Also, depth in the frontcourt can be a potential issue, with senior Brian Carlwell the only really experienced option up front.

 

 

The Question Mark: Can the Aztecs live up to the lofty expectations? Coach Fisher has his team on the edge of a national breakthrough, with many sources having them as a pre-season Top 25 team. As I stated above, teams will be gunning to shut down Leonard this season, so the rest of the team will need to raise their games. Fisher is a very good coach, who knows how to get the most out of his players, but the expectations combined with the rising talent level in the MWC, may lead to a let down.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: They are certainly one of the top 3 teams in the Mountain West, and with that should certainly be in line for the NCAA Tournament and a pretty good seed. We are looking at 22-25 wins, and a good chance that Leonard bolts for the NBA, where he would certainly be a first round pick.

 

 

TCU

 

 

The Good: Coach Jim Christian is doing what he can to keep up with the influx of talent into the MWC. The good for this team starts with the experienced backcourt in Ronnie Moss and Greg Hill. Moss is an excellent playmaker and scorer for the Horned Frogs. He does a great job keeping the offense moving, is capable of getting to the rim or pulling back for a jumper, and he also plays tough on-ball defense. Hill has the ability to score quickly and often, though he still needs to work on getting the best shot possible. Hill is also a capable defender who anticipates well and can be disruptive. Serbian power forward Nikola Cerina has the ability to draw the defense out and get to the rim, though he needs to become more aggressive down low. Sophomore wing Garlon Green is very athletic and runs the floor very well. He needs to become a more consistent shooter, but he has the ability to be another scoring option. Freshman Amric Fields is polished enough to contribute on both ends of the floor right away.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: Rebounding is an issue for the Horned Frogs, and the loss of leading rebounder Zvonko Buljan isn’t going to help that. With the lack of a strong interior presence, this will need to be a rebound by committee situation, where all five players on the court will need to hit the glass, especially with the plethora of strong rebounding teams in the conference. This lack of strong interior plays stretches to overall defense, where Coach Christian will either need to look at the use of zone defenses, or he will need to risk with double teams from his guards.

 

 

The Question Mark: See “The Not-So-Good” above. How will TCU deal without the lack of any interior defense?

 

 

What Will March Bring?: This could be a long year for Coach Christian, with the rest of the Mountain West improving and his team stuck in neutral. This is a 13-15 win team tops, though Ronnie Moss has a great shot at being First Team All-Conference.

 

 

UNLV

 

 

The Good: Now that the fate of Tre’von Willis is known – suspended for three games – it is easier to dissect the Rebels’ chances this season. Willis is a smooth scoring guard who often makes it look easy getting to the rim. He’s not afraid of contact, and can finish in traffic. While he runs the wings well in transition, he is much better when he pushes the ball up. Defensively, he is a skilled on-ball defender, though he can be inconsistent guarding the perimeter. Joining him as returning starters are point guard Oscar Bellfield and small forward Chace Stanback. Bellfield is an excellent distributor, knows how to get his teammates the ball in the right place, and can get to the basket in transition. He is a very good on-ball defender and can be a nuisance the whole length of the court. Stanback was once a heralded UCLA recruit and last season started to show some promise. He is extremely athletic with fantastic leaping ability. He goes strong to the basket and doesn’t shy away from contact. He needs to improve his perimeter shot, especially the 16-18 foot range. He also should work on becoming more aggressive on the defensive end, especially using his leaping ability to block shots. Kendall Wallace and Derrick Jasper provide nice depth in the backcourt, with Wallace being one of the Rebels top perimeter threats. Kansas transfer Quintrell Thomas is now eligible and will provide support on the interior and he is also very good at running the floor.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: The frontcourt depth could be better, especially strong forwards who can battle in the post. Outside of Thomas, there is freshman Carlos Lopez, who needs to get stronger, and Brice Massamba, who is strong, but raw. Three point shooting is a minor issue, and one that can be fixed – shot selection will be key. Willis, especially, has issues with jacking up ill-advised shots from deep.

 

 

The Question Mark: Will there be any residual effect from the Willis situation? While we know the outcome now, it was a cloud over the program all summer, and brought UNLV in the basketball headlines for the wrong reason. There should be no effect internally within the program – Coach Kruger has a good handle on his team. The issue will be when the Rebels hit the road. Opposing crowds are tough any time, but when you have a player who gets in the news for an arrest, the crowds can be brutal. How the team, and especially Willis, handles it will go a long way to how they do this season.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: This is easily a 20 win team, and could finish anywhere from 2^nd to 5^th in the conference. I see them finishing 4^th and getting one of the last bids to the NCAA Tournament. If he has a season comparable to last season, Willis could be a later first-early 2^nd round pick in next year’s draft.

 

 

Utah

 

 

The Good: Coach Jim Boylen will have a young squad for the program’s last go-round as a member of the Mountain West. Five of last year’s top six scorers are gone, along with a large percentage of other important stats. The only returning starters are giant 7’3 center David Foster and sophomore wing Shawn Glover. Foster is about what you would expect out of a 7-3 center. He is a very good shot-blocker, though he needs to become much stronger to become a factor on the boards. Glover showed some potential in limited minutes last season as a slasher/playmaker. He needs to become a more consistent shooter to be a factor this season. Defensively, he can guard multiple positions, though he needs to improve his coverage away from the ball. Senior Jay Watkins has great size and is very athletic, though he isn’t much of a shooter. He does do a great job on the offensive glass, and is a good finisher around the rim. Sophomore seven-footer Jason Washburn showed improvement by the end of last season, though he needs to become stronger and more aggressive, especially on the defensive end.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: As we said already, this is a very young team, with one senior and an incoming class of eight newcomers. This though will be a great opportunity for Boylen to get the team ready for its move to the Pac-10 next season. Expect to see some rough patches, especially early, as newcomers are brought into the mix. Defensively, the team will need to be tough on the perimeter as they have some good size on the interior.

 

 

The Question Mark: Will any of the newcomers have an impact this season?

With 8 new players, odds are that one of them will become an important part of the season. Looking at this group, forward Dominique Lee and junior college transfer Antonio DiMaria are both athletic enough and skilled enough to be contributors on the offensive end. Defensively, guard Preston Guiot has the ability to be a lock-down defender for the Utes.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: Lots of experience for the move to the Pac-10 next season. Look for possibly 16-17 wins at most, but a group that will be competitive immediately in the Pac-10.

 

 

Wyoming

 

 

The Good: The best part about this season for Coach Heath Schroyer is the return of Afam Muojeke from last season’s knee surgery. Muojeke has great size on the wing, is capable of going strong to the rim, posting up his man, or stepping out and hitting the long-range jumper. It will be interesting to see how his movements are once he is on the court, but even at 85-90%, he is the star of this Cowboys team. Joining him in the frontcourt is returning big man Djibril Thiam, a lean post player who has shown improvement with his footwork and his touch around the basket. Defensively, he is still not strong enough to effectively guard post players, though his long arms do help to alter shots. Sophomore guard Desmar Jackson stepped up in Muojeke’s absence last season and proved to be an effective scorer. Center Adam Waddell provided strong rebounding and defense down low, though he should get more looks on the offensive end. Jaydee Luster returns at the point guard position and proved to be an adequate playmaker last season.

The Not-So-Good: Shooting is a major issue outside of Muojeke. Coach Schroyer has brought in a trio of guards to help alleviate that problem. Junior College transfers Luke Martinez and Francisco Cruz hopefully will contribute immediately here. Also rebounding has been an issue, with the big men tending not to be aggressive enough. Thiam especially will need to improve at getting position under the boards and going after the ball.

 

 

The Question Mark: How effective will Muojeke be coming off of knee surgery? Muojeke is a great little-known talent, and he plays with an aggressiveness that makes him a dangerous scorer at any time. Coming off the surgery, he may tend to be less aggressive, which could severely affect his scoring prowess. Hopefully, after some adjustment early on, the Muojeke we knew from pre-injury comes out. If so, the Mountain West fans should be in for a treat.

 

 

What Will March Bring?: There should be some improvement over last season’s 10 wins, especially if Muojeke comes back full strength. However, the talent level is still not up to the rest of the conference. I think we are looking at 13-15 wins this year.

 

 

That’s it for our look at the Mountain West Conference. Make sure to check back tomorrow for the Part I of our look at the revitalized Pac 10. As always, leave your comments, feel free to contact me, and follow NBA Draft Blog on Twitter - @NBADraftBlog

 

 

 

The preview of Conference USA continues with Part II and a look at Southern Miss, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, UCF and UTEP. It’s an interesting group of teams, with Southern Miss and UTEP possible NCAA teams, along with Tulsa and UAB. Also, we have two of the most polarizing coaches in the NCAA in Larry Eustachy of Southern Miss and Tim Floyd of UTEP, along with Mike Davis, who has made a nice place for himself at UAB.

 

If you haven't checked out Part I - go here now.

 

 

 

Southern Mississippi

 

 

 

The Good: Larry Eustachy has slowly built up the Southern Miss basketball program over the last 6 years and this may be the year they break through into the top of Conference USA. Led by senior Gary Flowers, the Golden Eagles will be a tough-minded defensive team. Flowers is strongly built, has a great defensive presence, knows how to use his body on both ends of the floor, and can finish. He plays with an intensity which carries over to the rest of the team. Joining Flowers are fellow returnees in the frontcourt Sai’Quon Stone and Maurice Bolden. Stone is one of those players who seems to be involved in every play on both ends. He does a great job as an offensive rebounder and getting to the rim and drawing fouls. Bolden has a great size, though he definitely needs to get stronger. He moves well, has good footwork and a soft touch, but he has trouble with physical opponents. Angelo Johnson handles point guard duties and does a very good job setting the proper pace for Coach Eustachy. Johnson is strong, but quick, and handles pressure well. While he has the ability to hit long-range jumpers, he often forces bad shots. Josimary Ayarza provides some depth along the frontline and has potential has both a scorer and a rebounder. RL Horton provides a nice change of pace to Johnson in the backcourt.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: The team just doesn’t score. They win almost solely based on their defense, which is fine if you can control the tempo. Also, the team is sorely lacking a go-to scorer to rely on in close games. While Flowers is an excellent player, he doesn’t have the scoring ability to be counted on in crunch time. And while there is some depth on the team, the bench has not been very productive.

 

 

 

The Question Mark: How good can Gary Flowers be? Flowers made an impressive debut after coming over from junior college. At times, he seems to score and rebound with ease, no matter who is defending him. Defensively, he can guard multiple positions and is strong enough to battle down low. However, I’m not sure how much better he will be. I look forward to see how he responds now that people are getting to know who he is.

 

 

What Will March Bring: If there is a team that could surprise and upset Memphis for the league crown, it could be this Southern Miss crew. A good mix of experience, talent and coaching and Southern Miss should make a trip to the NCAA’s this season. Let’s call them one of the last teams in at this point.

 

 

 

Tulane

 

 

The Good: New head coach Ed Conroy will have his hands full trying to invigorate the Tulane basketball program. Last year’s returning scorer, Kris Richard, is back to lead the team. Richard is a strong shooting guard with the ability to get to the rim or to knock down mid-range jumpers consistently. He is also a good perimeter defender and has the ability to grab a good amount of rebounds. He will be joined in the backcourt by Kendall Timmons, another slasher with a great first step and the ability to finish at the rim. David Booker and Aaron Holmes return in an undersized frontcourt. Booker has good strength and can finish, he just is very consistent on both ends of the floor. Two freshmen, Kevin Brown and Jonathan Frye, will help provide the Green Wave with some much needed perimeter shooting help.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: This team can’t shoot – not from mid-range, not from long-range. Part of the problem lies with the fact that shooters weren’t able to get good looks in the old offense. I am sure Coach Conroy will find a way to spring the shooters. Rebounding is another major issue, caused by the teams largest issue – no size. Sophomore Kelth Cameron and freshman Kevin Thomas are the only players taller than 6’8, and neither of them is ready to contribute more than a couple of minutes.

 

 

The Question Mark: How does Conroy, a known coaching disciplinarian, deal with a team that played with little discipline last season? Conroy will not put up with much nonsense, even if it means sitting all of his starters. That being said, I’m hoping this group responds to him, because if they do they will become a decent team.

 

 

What Will March Bring: It’s going to be a tough first year for Conroy – most likely between 8 and 10 wins, with real improvement to start coming in 2011-12.

 

 

Tulsa

 

 

The Good: With the graduation of team leaders Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh, it now falls to Justin Hurtt to take over the team. Hurtt is an excellent long-range shooter and does a good job without the ball, making strong cuts to the basket and drawing contact. An excellent free-throw shooter, Hurtt will need to be more aggressive going to the basket with the ball if he is to continue getting points from the line. Defensively, he is not a great ball defender, but he does a good job anticipating missed shot and getting in position for rebounds. He does a good job filling lanes in transition, though I would like to see how he does running the break for the team. Taking over for Jordan in the middle will be Steven Idlet, a solid big man who did an excellent job coming off the bench last season. While not as skilled as Jordan, he is very good at rebounding and setting screens. He could become a legitimate post scorer with a little improvement of his footwork. Joining him in the frontcourt is Joe Richard, a returning starter who is a tough defender and good rebounder. Freshmen Blondy Baruti and Jordan Clarkson are skilled enough to contribute immediately.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: Replacing Ben Uzoh is a tough task, and it will most likely be left in the hands of either sophomore Donte Medder or junior Glenn Andrews, who is returning from a medical redshirt for a knee injury. Neither has the toughness or court vision of Uzoh, though Andrews, if he is fully recovered, can grow into that type of player. Medder is a good shooter, and could provide help in the backcourt at either position.

 

The Question Mark: Is Hurtt capable of being the go-to player for Tulsa? Absolutely he can, if someone takes control of the point guard position and gets Hurtt the ball in positions where he can do the most damage. Hurtt is a good enough ballhandler that he could run the offense, but it may hurt his ability to score.

 

 

What Will March Bring: I’m not going to rule out the NCAA Tournament just yet, though a lot will be determined by how Idlet handles being the main man in the post now, and how the point guard competition shakes out. I’m looking at 18 wins minimum, at least 8 in Conference USA – though that may not be enough this year to get them in.

 

 

UAB

 

 

The Good: While the loss of leading scorer and rebounder Elijah Milsap will be felt, Coach Mike Davis has a solid system, with good players in place, to keep UAB near the top of Conference USA. Led by the backcourt of Jamarr Sanders and Aaron Johnson, the Blazers should have little problem adjusting to life without Milsap. Sanders is the Blazers’ main perimeter threat, but he also has the ability to put the ball on the floor and use his strong frame to get to the hoop. Defensively, he can improve his lateral movement, though he does do a good job disrupting passing lanes. Johnson is the team’s catalyst on both ends of the floor. On offense, he does a great job breaking down defenses and finding holes to get to the basket. On defense, he is pest to anyone he is guarding, and does a very good job getting the ball with his quick hands. Cameron Moore will be the main man in the middle this season, and hopefully has come back with some added muscle. He has talent, can finish well around the rim and runs the floor well. He needs to get stronger in order to defend better in the post, but he has good instincts for the ball. Davis will also have a pair of freshmen who will be very good players right away in Quincy Taylor and Preston Purifoy.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: The frontcourt is thin with little size behind Moore. Seven-foot Junior College transfer Beas Hamga and redshirt freshman Anthony Criswell are both unproven and will need to improve quickly to have an impact. Perimeter shooting is also an issue for the Blazers, with Sanders being the only real long distance threat on the team. The two freshmen may be able to help with that, but it is yet to be seen.

 

 

The Question Mark: Can one player replace Elijah Milsap? Last season, Milsap seemed to do everything for UAB – scoring, ballhandling, rebounding. It could take 3 or 4 players to replace his production, especially on the boards if Moore and his backups don’t step up their production. Scoring should be a little easier to replace with Sanders and Johnson capable of scoring more than they have, and possibly someone like Ovie Soko stepping up and showing what they can do.

 

What Will March Bring: It should be an interesting season for Coach Davis, and definitely an adjustment period. They will certainly be on the bubble for a NCAA Tournament bid, probably 18 or 19 wins.

 

 

 

Central Florida (UCF)

 

 

The Good: Possibly the best thing that has happened to the UCF program this season is the hiring of former Florida assistant Donnie Jones as the new Head Coach. Jones should be able to attract some very good talent to Central Florida. For now, he has an experienced group to help get his career there off on the right foot. Almost every player who provided important minutes last season is back this year, led by the backcourt of Isaac Sosa and AJ Rompza. Sosa, the team’s leading returning scorer, is an outstanding shooter, especially from 3-pont range. Rompza is the team’s playmaker, and is a fantastic on-ball defender. The frontline will return Keith Clanton, AJ Tyler, and David Diakite. Tyler has excellent footwork and nice touch around the lane. He could stand to add some muscle to his frame, but he plays stronger than he looks. Clanton is a powerful sophomore who is a strong rebounder and finisher, and a much improved defender. Marcus Jordan is capable of playing either guard position and is a good passer with some scoring ability. The team has some solid depth on the bench with PJ Gaynor, Taylor Young, and freshman Isaiah Sykes.

 

The Not-So-Good: While there is a solid group of players, there is no one player who can rise above the rest of the team and take over when necessary. Rebounding is also an issue, with Tyler and Clanton the only consistent rebounders. Seven-foot Michigan State transfer Tom Herzog is eligible, though his impact is yet to be seen. With the lack of true size up front, it will be important for the guards to crash the glass to help out. On the offensive end, the team will has little room for error and must execute the offense consistently in order to stay in games.

 

The Question Mark: How will the team adjust to Coach Jones’ new up-tempo style of play? The guard-heavy group should flourish in the new system, though I am most interested in seeing how Clanton handles the new system, as it doesn’t seem to play to his strengths. If Clanton is able to score in this system, he could be a future Conference USA Player of the Year.

 

 

What Will March Bring: This is definitely a team that will improve. A veteran group plus a new coach and system should add a few wins to last year’s total. I really think this is a 20 win team and should be in contention for a NCAA Tournament bid, though at this point I think they will fall a bit short. Look for them to be in the 2012 Tournament.

 

 

 

UTEP

 

The Good: Tim Floyd is now in charge and a lot of the talent is gone, but UTEP still has the potential to be a dangerous team. Led by explosive guard Randy Culpepper, the Miners will look to run often. Culpepper is extremely quick, can find his way to the rim and finishes well for his size. He also has good range on his jumper, though his size prevents him from getting many clean looks. He isn’t much of a distributor, and he will need to improve that to even have a shot at the next level. Jeremy Williams is another explosive athlete who has the ability to get out in transition and finish strong at the hoop. He can create his own shot, can step pick and hit the 3 and chooses his shots well. He needs to tighten up his defense a bit, often leaving his man with too much room to operate. Julyan Stone is a shooting guard with point guard skills. He sees the court extremely well, makes smart passes and plays under control. He doesn’t look often to score, which should change in the Floyd offense. Defensively, he matches up well guarding the wings, and is an excellent off-ball defender. Giant Claude Britten will be counted on for defending the post and keeping opponents of the glass.

 

The Not-So-Good: The loss of Caracter and Moultrie will be missed on the offensive end, where Britten and Harris are not of the same skill set. Harris could eventually grow into a legit post option, but Britten is more of a space-eater. The bench is not particularly deep, and the talent has not contributed major minutes. Myron Strong and Tyler Tafoya will provide minutes in the backcourt, while Harris and two other freshmen, John Bohannon and Michael Haynes, will try to provide a spark in the frontcourt. As you can see, it’s a big drop in talent after the top 6 players.

 

The Question Mark: What does Tim Floyd bring to this program? Floyd has a lot of experience, at both the NBA and NCAA levels, but has been a lightning rod for controversy everywhere he goes. There is little chance that Floyd will let the story be the team instead of himself, and, unless there has been a change in Floyd’s ways, the Athletic Director should be prepared for a visit from the NCAA. However, he still knows the game well and should have his team prepared to win.

 

What Will March Bring: Over 20 wins, probably 2^nd or 3^rd in the conference, and Randy Culpepper as Conference USA Player of the Year. I wouldn’t be surprised if this group pulls off a win or two once they get to the tournament.

 

 

 

That wraps up our look at Conference USA. Make sure to check back tomorrow for a preview of the Mountain West Conference. As always, leave your comments, feel free to contact me, and follow NBA Draft Blog on Twitter - @NBADraftBlog

 

 

The NBA Draft Blog Conference Season Previews continue with Part I of our look at Conference USA. Memphis has the talent to compete with most of the country’s best teams, but UTEP and Southern Mississippi will challenge. Marshall and East Carolina have new coaches looking to help those programs move up in the league, while SMU and Rice are already going through their renewals with Matt Doherty and Ben Braun. Tulsa and UAB will still be tough teams to play, while Tulane and Central Florida look to make something positive happen this season.

Part I will look at East Carolina, Houston, Marshall, Memphis, Rice, and SMU, while Part II tomorrow will look at Southern Miss, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, Central Florida and UTEP.

 

East Carolina

 

 

The Good: Jeff Lebo takes over the Pirates this season and he will look to make big strides immediately with 6 of the top 7 scorers from last season returning. Led by point guard Brock Young and big man Darrius Morrow, ECU has strong scorers up top and in the post. Morrow is excellent at breaking down the defense and getting to the rim, though he is extremely erratic and needs to improve his shot selection. Morrow is very efficient with the ball, though he needs to work on going stronger to the basket. Also, Morrow needs to become a better rebounder on the defensive end, and hopefully has come back this season with some added muscle. The player I want to see is Jamar Abrams, an athletic wing with a great first step and the ability to knock down jumpers with a hand in his face. He also has the ability to be a disruptive defender, though he needs to not fall for ball and head fakes as much as he has in the past. DaQuan Joyner has the strength to be an effective rebounder against taller players and he is effective finishing around the basket.

 

 

The Not-So-Good: Three point shooting is a major issue that ECU will need to address this season. Not only do they have very few pure shooters, but the looks from 3 have not been very good. Abrams is probably the best shooter, but he needs to improve his shot selection. Defense is also an issue that Lebo will need to address, especially on the perimeter, where opponents have been able to get too many good looks at the basket.

 

The Question Mark: How will new coach Lebo handle a veteran group with a history of losing? Though Lebo’s job at Auburn was hardly distinguished, he does have a history of reviving programs. Is it too late for this group of players, and will the turnaround really start when Lebo brings in his own players? My view is that Lebo is experienced enough to not try and overcoach this group, let them do what they do well and try and tighten up some of the deficiencies.

What Will March Bring?: I definitely think we will see an improvement on last year’s 10-win season, most likely 14-16, but still a far way from from a NCAA bid. I think if Abrams can make some of the improvements I mentioned earlier, he should at least get a camp invite from a NBA team next season.

 

 

 

Houston

 

The Good: After a NCAA appearance last season, head coach Tom Penders retired and leading scorers Aubrey Coleman and Kelvin Lewis graduated. However, thinks are not bleak for new coach James Dickey. Maurice McNeil is extremely athletic and very active on the court. An excellent offensive rebounder, he also does a very good job finishing in traffic. While not a great defender, he does have good shot-blocking ability. He could be joined up front by big Kendrick Washington, another strong rebounder with the ability to finish. The Cougars also have an exciting newcomer in freshman Joseph Young, a lethal shooter with ridiculous range. He also has a great head for the game and once he adjusts to the NCAA level, he should assert himself as one of the top scorers in the league.

 

The Not-So-Good: The point guard position can be an issue this season with the transfer of Desmond Wade to Fairfield. Zamal Nixon may get first shot at assuming the job, though he didn’t show much in limited time last season. Defensively, the team will need to be much tougher at preventing penetration from the guards to prevent an already undersized frontline from picking up needless fouls.

 

The Question Mark: How does the program adjust to the loss of a great coach in Penders and a prolific scorer like Coleman? Obviously, Coach Dickey is well respected within the league for his coaching ability, but he has been away from the sidelines for a few years, and it’s been a decade since he has run a program. Cougar fans shouldn’t be concerned with the direction of the program under Dickey. While he may not be the name that Penders was, he is both a good coach and recruiter, and he will keep the team competitive. Replacing Coleman is a tougher question, though Young may be able to make up a bit of the scoring. Most likely, there will be a shift in the offensive strategy to adjust here.

What Will March Bring?: While they will still be a good team, they are nowhere the team that put together a late run to win Conference USA. I would say they end up with 16 or so wins, and be near .500 in the conference.

 

 

Marshall

 

 

The Good: While the Herd have lost Hassan Whiteside to the NBA and leading scorer Tyler Wilkerson to graduation, things may be looking up at Marshall. Probably the best move for this upcoming season was the hiring of Pitt assistant Tom Herrion as head coach. Herrion has been successful as both a head coach at Charleston and as an assistant at Virginia and Pitt, where he proved himself as a coach and a recruiter. This is a move that will pay off immediately. One that won’t is the signing of heralded guard Justin Coleman, who is sitting out the year after failing to qualify at Louisville. Either way, Herrion will have a good backcourt to help steady the ship this season. Guards Damier Pitts and Shaquille Johnson are both capable scorers and defenders. Pitts is a solid point guard, makes good decisions and knows when to use his speed to get to the basket. Johnson is more of a slasher than a shooter, but he is also a good passer in his own right and makes it tough to pressure the Herd. Herrion will also have a trio of experienced wings in Tirrell Baines, Dago Pena, and Antonio Hayman to provide depth and help on the boards.

 

The Not-So-Good: Losing the 7-2 Whiteside and the wide-bodied Wilkerson will leave the Herd thin on the frontline. Nigel Spikes and Junior College transfer Aundra Williams will provide some size, but they are unproven and neither is known for solid interior defense. Along with this, expect rebounds to be tough to come by, which will make the perimeter defense that much more important this season. One other are of concern will be perimeter shooting, especially from 3, where the team wasn’t great before, and lost the one guy who was semi-reliable from deep (Chris Lutz). Pitts can shoot, though he may have a tough time getting looks without the post presence of last season.

 

The Question Mark: Can Herrion turn Marshall into a top mid-major program? The talent level is rising in Conference USA, and Herrion has a solid history of bringing in high-level players. However, many top players may not see Marshall as a “destination” school. I have a feeling Herrion will change this, and keeping Coleman in West Virginia was a great start. If he is able to land another high-level prospect for next season, it may be the jump start he needs to turn Marshall into the class of Conference USA.

What Will March Bring?: An expected season of adjustment here. Marshall will certainly not come close to last year’s 24 wins. But Herrion will find ways to keep them competitive. I would fee comfortable saying somewhere between 12 and 14 wins this year, with a major jump expected in 2011-12 with the eligibility of Coleman and a slew of high-major transfers eligible.

 

 

 

Memphis

 

 

The Good: It hasn’t taken long for Josh Pastner to reassure those who were concerned over the departure of John Calipari last year. Though Elliot Williams has moved on to the NBA, Pastner has plenty of very good returning players to pair with a top-notch recruiting class. Junior Wesley Witherspoon had a breakout year last season, and may be in for an even better season this year. Witherspoon is an extremely athletic wing who can slash to the rim or hit the 3, and he is also an excellent finisher in transition. He will be joined in the frontcourt with fellow returnees Will Coleman and Angel Garcia. Coleman is a strong defender and rebounder, does a great job blocking shots, and can finish around the rim. Garcia finally made into the court near the end of last season after eligibility issues and a torn ACL kept him out of action. Garcia has excellent size, uses his body well in the post and can either go strong to the basket or hit an open look from the perimeter. The backcourt will most likely be led by two freshmen – point guard Joe Jackson and Will Barton. Jackson is a fantastic scorer, able to get to the rim or hit the perimeter jumper. He still needs to work on becoming more of a distributor, but that should come in time. Barton is a long, athletic wing who can score in transition or within a half-court set. He will need to get stronger to survive at the NCAA level, and he needs to become a much better defender, but he has All-American potential. Pastner will also have plenty of depth with incoming freshmen Jelan Kendrick, Tarik Black and Hippolyte Tsafack.

 

The Not-So-Good: As you can see above, there is not a lot of major issues with this group. The biggest problem will be a combination of playing time for all of this talent, combined with integrating such a large group of newcomers with the remnants of last year’s team. As a team, rebounding was a concern last season, but hopefully that will be fixed with a full season of Garcia and the addition of Tsafack.

 

The Question Mark: With the loss of Williams and Willie Kemp, will Jackson be able to become the distributor and playmaker they need them to be? Like I said above, the guy can score with the best of them, but Memphis has scorers. To be as good a team as they can be, Memphis will need to rely on Jackson to set everything up.

What Will March Bring?: I would be stunned if Memphis didn’t win Conference USA by a couple of games, as well as pick up a 4 or 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There is a possibility that Witherspoon could impress enough to come out of school early, but I’m not sold yet. Memphis could be even stronger next season.

 

 

 

Rice

 

The Good: Coach Ben Braun has done a good job starting to revive a dormant Rice basketball program. Now with a couple of his recruit classes in, look for the Owls to show some improvement this season. 5 of the top 6 scorers from last season are back, led by Tamir Jackson and Arsalan Kazemi. Jackson is the team’s leading returning scorer and playmaker. I will not particularly quick, he knows how to find holes in the defense and he sees the court well. Kazemi is deceptively strong and a good athlete. He needs to increase his court awareness, relying mainly on instinct in his play. Trey Stanton provides decent size in the middle, though his play is inconsistent and often plays a lot smaller than 6’10. Connor Frizzelle and Lucas Kuipers provide decent shooting from the wing. Freshman Omar Oraby is a project, but he’s 7’1 and will give depth along the front.

 

The Not-So-Good: This is not a very athletic team and must rely on execution in the half-court to score points. Also, there has not been a lot of bench production, which needs to improve to take the next step up the conference ladder. Finally, rebounding must be a priority, especially among the frontcourt players. Too often last season they weren’t active going after missed shots.

The Question Mark: Who will step up and become a dominant player on the team? Last season, there was too much deferral on who was going to take charge when the team needs it. My guess, if it does happen, it will be Jackson as the playmaker, though he has yet to show the ability to be the man.

What Will March Bring: While there will be some improvement, especially within the conference, it will be another year before Rice has a chance to break the top half of the league. 14 or 15 wins seems to be the best case for this group.

 

 

 

SMU

 

 

The Good: Coach Matt Doherty has done a good job attracting talent to a SMU program which needed an overhaul. This year’s group is led by senior Papa Dia, an active player around the rim who at times grabs every rebound in sight. Dia is also a very active defender, who does a great job as a help defender in the lane. Dia will be joined in the frontcourt by Robert Nyakundi, an athletic wing who has the ability to hit the long-range shot. If he was to attack the basket more, he could have a great season. Justin Haynes is a slasher who earns his time with strong play on the defensive end. Haynes has the ability to harass the best shooters into bad shots. Mike Walker should assume the point guard role this season and will look to show some of the potential of his limited minutes.

 

The Not-So-Good: The loss of Derrick Williams will be tough as he was the leading scorer and playmaker. If Walker doesn’t get the job done at the point, the man could become Rodney Clinkscales, a quick guard who does a great job getting into the lane, though his decision making still needs improvement. Defensively, the team lacks a real post presence to defend against back-to-the basket centers. Dia is serviceable, but his strength lies in being active, not using his body. Freshman Leslee Smith and Ricmonds Vilde will provide help on the boards, though neither is ready to contribute much on offense.

 

The Question Mark: Will the loss of Williams and Mouhammed Faye halt the progress that the program has made? While those are both big losses, Doherty is bringing in talent that fits his style of play. With the transition comes some tough patches, and this team will have a few of those. If Walker or Clinkscales can become a leader it should allow Dia and Nyakundi to play to their strengths, but that is a big if. Next season should be better with some good recruits already signed and some good transfer becoming eligible.

What Will March Bring: Most likely will be an early March for the Mustangs. 10-12 wins, though on the right day, Dia and Nyakundi could spur an upset.

 

 

That wraps up Part I of the look at Conference USA. Make sure to check back tomorrow for the Part II. As always, leave your comments, feel free to contact me, and follow NBA Draft Blog on Twitter - @NBADraftBlog

 

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