Sweet 16 weekend is upon us and it’s time to start breaking down what some key players need to do to give their team the best shot of winning and making it to next weekend.

Louisville – Russ Smith will be Russ Smith, but how he handles the control aspect will go a long way to whether Louisville lets Oregon hang around with a chance in this game. Gorgui Dieng should find plenty of opportunities to find scoring against Oregon’s mismashed frontcourt. Peyton Siva will need to set the tempo on the defensive end, looking to create scoring chances when possible. Chane Behanan, Luke Hancock and Wayne Blackshear need to be patient and find scoring in the gaps.

Oregon – A balanced attack has been Oregon’s M.O. all season, but they need someone to step up as they look to take a deeper run. The prime candidates are freshmen Damyean Dotson and Dominic Artis. Artis is getting closer to 100% after an injury and Dotson’s explosiveness can play at Louisville’s tempo.  Big men Arsalan Kazemi, Tony Woods, and Waverly Austin will need to play much more physical than they are used to, and they will need to make sure and keep the Cardinals from crashing the boards. EJ Singler provides a steady influence, and he may need to step in if things start to get away from the Ducks.

Kansas – Jeff Withey has been having an excellent tournament so far, but he could be in for a major test with a lot of the high screening action Michigan is likely to throw his way to try and lure him from the basket.  Ben McLemore has taken a lot of criticism for his tendency to disappear at times for long stretches. That can change tonight against Oregon’s perimeter defense. Travis Releford will have his hands full with multiple assignments on the defensive end. Elijah Johnson needs to control the game on both ends of the floor for the Jayhawks and try to not let Michigan get into a rhythm.

Michigan – Trey Burke will likely keep the Michigan offense running well, but he will not be able to do this alone. Tim Hardaway Jr. needs to continue his good play of late, and freshmen Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III will need to be aggressive and not settle early on. Mitch McGary will need to try different things to keep Withey occupied and hope to keep him away from protecting the rim.

Duke – The senior trio of Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and Seth Curry will need to make their mark early on in this game.  Plumlee will need to contend with the physical play of Derrick Nix. The Spartans may not have a true answer for Kelly, so he needs to look to get into a rhythm early on.  Curry needs to pick his spots, and with a little patience, he will find them.  Quinn Cook has done a very good job keeping the offense running and he will need to make sure he deals with the screens well on the defensive end.  Rasheed Sulaimon was aggressive against Creighton, but the same opportunities may not be there. Pick and choose your spots. 

Michigan State – Keith Appling has had his struggles this season, but there is no time for it now. Get the Spartans into their offense quickly and get the ball to guys where they can make plays.  Adreian Payne will need to look and establish himself early around the basket before he looks to make plays on the perimeter. Derrick Nix will have to push Plumlee away from the basket on the defensive end, while looking to go right at him on offense to try and get the big man in foul trouble.  Gary Harris may be the difference if he can get good looks early and get his confidence up.

Florida – Can Kenny Boynton control himself? Shot-selection is key and his history has not been great. If he picks the right spots, he should find some easy points. Patric Young and Erik Murphy can dominate the lane area on offense, but they need to pay attention to constant movement of Florida Gulf Coast on the defensive end.  Scotty Wilbekin has played good defense this season, but he has to be aware of big gaps FGCU will create and make sure he doesn’t get caught without help.

Florida Gulf Coast – Just enjoy the ride!

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Sweet 16 weekend is upon us and it’s time to start breaking down what some key players need to do to give their team the best shot of winning and making it to next weekend. First up are the Thursday games in the East and West regions. Tomorrow I will preview the South and Midwest.

Miami – With the loss of Reggie Johnson, Miami will need the Julian Gamble and Kenny Kadji to not only handle his post scoring/defensive duties, but they need to use their bodies to create the space that the guards need to get to the basket.  Maybe even more important, Shane Larkin needs to not look to take on more than he already does with the loss of Johnson. Stick to the game plan and the usual scoring opportunities should be available.

Marquette – Vander Blue has been the major story through the 1^st 2 rounds, including the game-winner against Davidson and 29 points against Butler. Miami has had a few days to prepare, so look for them to be creative in defending Blue. This means Junior Cadougan needs to look to establish other options early and make sure to get Blue involved, but in the natural flow of the game.

Arizona – Ohio State may be the most methodical team that Arizona has seen this season, and this will likely give them a lot of problems. The Wildcats are just not a fundamentally sound group of players. Mark Lyons and Nick Johnson can do a lot to help alleviate this by finding opportunities to play their pace.  The battle will be physical in the lane, which also doesn’t work to Arizona’s advantage, so somehow the Wildcats will need to establish their game plan first and hope it sticks.

Ohio State – This is all about Aaron Craft. Craft’s biggest asset is his ability to control the game on both ends of the floor. He can’t let Arizona try to force him away from the team’s gameplan. Deshaun Thomas should have a tough matchup with Solomon Hill, but Thomas finds ways to get his points. Who will be the 3^rd player to step up for the Buckeyes?

Indiana – The length of the Syracuse zone could be a problem, but Indiana has the weapons to handle it. Victor Oladipo and Yogi Ferrell should look to find their way into the middle of the zone to create opportunities on the perimeter or for Cody Zeller down low.  Zeller will need to step up and crash the offensive boards at every opportunity. The zone will give them plenty of gaps.  Also, any of the Indiana forwards can find some space in the high post and look to work some high-low with Zeller or other baseline cutters.

Syracuse – Michael Carter-Williams has had a good NCAA Tournament so far, but his control issues may be challenged here by Oladipo’s defense.  Brandon Triche needs to revert back to his 1^st half of the season form and become almost a 2^nd point guard out there.  James Southerland will have his opportunities for the 3-point shot, but he can’t force it. CJ Fair needs to be aggressive and find gaps quickly to get to the basket.

La Salle – The guard trio of Ramon Galloway, Tyreek Duren and Tyrone Garland needs to avoid getting sucked into the physical guard play of Wichita State. Push the ball when they have the opportunities, but don’t force the issue. Steve Zack may get some minutes and his size and his ability to facilitate on offense should help give them the openings they need to get to the basket.

Wichita State – Cleanthony Early has continued to improve throughout the season, and it will be tough for La Salle to matchup with his athleticism at his size. Carl Hall has to go out and play his normal physical game in the lane, and allow Early and Malcolm Armstead to get to the basket. Move the ball quickly and find the 3-point opportunities when they present themselves.

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Photo: AP/Julie Jacobson

Name:     Anthony Marshall       Age:   22     School: UNLV

Height: 6’3   Weight: 200   Projected Position:  PG/SG           

2012-13 Stats:

10.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 5.8 apg, 1.3 spg, 2.7 tpg (33.9 minutes per game)

47.2 FG%, 67.4 FT%, 36.9 3FG%, 2.1:1 A/TO

57.9 TS%, 54.7 eFG%, 17.1 USG%, 32.9 AST%

SKILLS & ATHLETIC BREAKDOWN

Offense

Perimeter Shooting

Marshall is an average perimeter shooter.  Most of the time, he does a good job getting square to the basket, but his release point can be low. This can cause him to not get ideal arc on his shot.  He can hit from long-range when he has space, but the low release point means he needs a good amount of time and space to get the shot off. He is much better when he can use a dribble or two to get into his shot.  He uses screens well as a ballhandler to create room for his shot, but he needs to watch rushing the shot or falling away from the basket.  He moves well without the ball, but he needs to come tighter off of screens ready to shoot.  He uses his dribble well to create space and if you backpedal on him, he will shoot.  I would like to see him look to use this ability more in the mid-range area.  Shot selection has improved and he doesn’t force many bad jumpers, but because he takes extra time from long-range, defenders can close quicker on him, forcing him to try and adjust. 

Penetration/Post Play

Marshall doesn’t have a very quick first step, but he uses his dribble well to create space and get defenders off-balance.  He does a good job going to both his left and his right, though he will still look to finish around the basket with his left hand on both sides of the rim. He does a good job keeping his head up as he tries to weave through the defense and he has improved his ability to find open teammates if help comes to stop him.  He is creative in finding ways to get shots off around the rim, though the results are not always pretty. He is uses his strength well to make room for his shot.  A key area he needs to work on his getting a consistent floater/short jumper so he doesn’t end up getting stuck if the help defense is ready to stop him.

Marshall uses his strength well to isolate and post-up smaller guards and he is able to create close shots or create space for his teammates.  He is able to do this on either side of the basket and he is creative in finding space for his shot.    

Ballhandling

Marshall is an above-average ballhandler, able to use both hands well and doing a very good job protecting the ball.   He has a good crossover and a decent change of pace dribble which allow him to create space and get defenders off-balance.  He has improved how he handles pressure and is quick to get the ball out of potential traps.  Marshall needs to remember to keep control and to anticipate where he will be able to go off the dribble and what potential options should open up if he looks to penetrate.      

Passing Skills

Marshall has above-average court vision and can be a good passer.  Marshall keeps his head up, especially when going to the basket, and he is able to find teammates, usually around the basket, if the help converges.  He has to watch over-penetrating in the lane and getting caught without a good passing option.  He needs to do a better job making reads when coming off of screens.  UNLV didn’t feature the pick-and-roll often, if at all, most nights, so seeing whether Marshall can find the balance between making the right read and keeping his aggressiveness will be important to his development. One other area Marshall needs to improve is in finding his teammates quicker. He will often recognize openings on the court, but he needs to get the ball out sooner. 

Free Throw Shooting

Marshall is an average free throw shooter with a consistent routine at the line.  He stops for a split second at the top of his motion before he releases the ball, but it doesn’t seem to affect his shot much.  The release point is low, as with his jumper, so it could have a “line drive” effect. Marshall does a good job getting to the line in relation to the amount of shots he takes. His key will be to convert more often.   

Defense

Perimeter Defense (On/Off Ball)

Marshall does a good job positioning himself well on the ballhandler, but he needs to improve his lateral movement. He can be slow to anticipate and ends up chasing instead of moving with the ball.  He is capable of pressuring the ballhandler, and he can be a very physical defender if necessary.   Marshall needs to do a better job reading and getting over the top of screens against shooters. Also, Marshall needs to work on being able to position himself in ways that he can direct the ballhandler’s action.   Off the ball, Marshall generally positions himself well, though he can get caught watching the ball too much and this can get him turned around and unable to stay with his man or help if needed.  He does a good job looking to jump or disrupt passing lanes but needs to watch falling for pass fakes.   He also needs to work on navigating through screens off the ball, making sure not to let his man get a lot of room and finding ways to get through screens in the lane area.  He picks his spots well when he looks to step into the lane and help or to double-team in certain instances.  His defensive awareness needs improvement, especially reading the whole court on the defensive end.  He closes well on shooters, but he needs to do a better job not falling for shot fakes.

Rebounding

Marshall rebounds well for his size, doing a strong job anticipating missed shots and looking to beat people to the spot, though he isn’t afraid to get in among the bigger players to try and get the ball. Marshall’s ability to rebound the ball allows him to start the team in transition quickly.

Transition

Marshall can be very good in transition, both pushing the ball up court himself and running the wings.  As the ballhandler on the break, Marshall gets the ball up court quickly, and looks to get space to get to the basket.  One area he can improve is his ability to draw the defense and find open teammates. If he gets the ball on the wing, he is good at being aggressive and going straight to the basket.

Intangibles/Summary

Marshall did a very good job taking over the point guard duties full-time this season, but his greatest strength is still as a scorer. He is strong and creative in the lane area, and his ability to draw fouls would be a benefit if he hit more of his free throws. Defensively, he has to tighten up, both on and off the ball, but he has the ability to be a good physical defender if he improves his lateral movement and awareness.  He understands how to run in transition effectively and he still has some room to grow as a point guard 

Draft Value:  Late 2^nd – #52-60 to Undrafted

Marshall has very good physical tools, but he needs to still develop some key parts to his game. He showed a lot by handling his point guards duties well this year and there will certainly be teams interested in seeing how he matches up against others in his class. Even if he isn’t drafted, I wouldn’t count him out

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The NCAA Tournament kicks off in full on Thursday, so I will just give some thoughts on some prospects from each region before each weekend. These are not meant to be scouting reports or evaluations, just some thoughts on how the play of certain pro prospects can affect their team’s ability to advance. 

Next up is the West where Gonzaga is the top seed.  (See the Midwest Region here)

Kelly Olynyk

Olynyk has come back from his redshirt season to become one of the best offensive players in the nation. A 7-footer who can score in different places, he helps spread the court for the Zags' offense.  Olynyk’s key is going to be stepping it up on the defensive end to help the Zags deal with some physical teams, including potential match-ups with Wisconsin and Pittsburgh.  While neither has a great post scorer, they do have big men who crash the boards and help facilitate the offense.

Jared Berggren

Berggren is almost the opposite of Olynyk.  A top-level defender, Berggren is not often a major factor on the offensive end.  If Wisconsin wants to advance in the Tournament, Berggren will have to try and establish himself as an offensive option to help free up space for the perimeter shooters.  If he can be a solid contributor on offense to go with his lane protection on defense, Wisconsin should be able to establish their tempo.

Marshall Henderson

Love him or hate him, he provides excitement.  However, with a first-round match-up with Wisconsin coming up, Henderson could be facing the toughest defense he has seen this year.  The perimeter shot isn’t always going to be there, so Henderson will need to be creative and, if possible, try not to force the action. The Badgers won’t be flustered by his actions, so it may be up to Henderson to be the one to adjust his game.

Solomon Hill

Leadership is one of the keys to making a deep tourney run, even more so when you have a lot of young players in the rotation. Hill is a good scorer and defender, but what he brings to the Wildcats is top-shelf leadership abilities. With a tough Belmont team in the first round, Hill will need to make sure his team stays focused and he needs to be willing to step in if things aren’t going as planned.

Alex Kirk

After a strong game against San Diego State, Kirk was held at bay in the Mountain West final against UNLV.  Kirk’s ability to play inside and out on offense is key to creating the spacing which allows Tony Snell and Kendall Williams to operate.  While Harvard doesn’t have the size to impact Kirk without freeing up the perimeter, a potential 2^nd round match-up with Arizona could be an issue.  Kirk needs to use his size and strength to establish the basket area, and then he can worry about heading to the perimeter to open up the floor.

Wesley Saunders

Harvard entered the season reeling from ineligibility issues, but the Harvard team rallied behind freshman point guard Siyani Chambers and leading scorer Saunders.   Though Saunders is a bit undersized at the 3, he is quick and fearless going to the basket, and he will need to attack the seams in the New Mexico defense early and often to give Harvard a real chance here.  His ability to draw and finish through contact may cause some personnel issues for a New Mexico team that isn’t deep with big men.

Check back as we go through each region leading up to Thursday.

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The NCAA Tournament kicks off in full on Thursday, so I will just give some thoughts on some prospects from each region before each weekend. These are not meant to be scouting reports or evaluations, just some thoughts on how the play of certain pro prospects can affect their team’s ability to advance. 

I’ll start things out in the Midwest where Louisville is the top seed.

Russ Smith

While Smith is not the only, or best, pro prospect on the #1 seed Louisville squad, his ability to create chaos on the defensive end is often the impetus to many Cardinal runs.  The key for Smith is going to be trying to avoid creating the same chaos on the offensive end.  Smith has great speed, is fearless going to the basket, and is capable of knocking down open jumpers.  With some tough defenses scattered throughout the bracket, Louisville is going to need Smith to somehow still be “Russ Smith” but much more controlled.

Colton Iverson

The Colorado State senior performed admirably in a semi-final loss to UNLV in the Mountain West Tournament, scoring 24 points and grabbing 16 rebounds.  A first round date with Missouri and Alex Oriahki is coming, and Iverson can set the tone for the Rams’ tournament hopes on how he goes after Oriahki in the paint and rebounds against a strong rebounding team.

Le’Bryan Nash

While Nash showed more of the athleticism and explosiveness that was expected last season, the addition of Marcus Smart has boosted his confidence and given him someone who knows how to get him the ball. Nash’s issue is he still seems to disappear for long stretches of play, and often those coincide with things going badly for the Cowboys. In an elimination scenario, Oklahoma State is going to need Nash to bring all of his abilities out and do whatever the team needs for wins.

Adonis Thomas

See Le’Bryan Nash

Keith Appling

In a stretch of 3 losses to Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan, Appling played some of the worst games of his college career.  With the NCAA Tournament being a lot about controlling the floor and the tempo, Appling will be shouldered with leading the charge for the Spartans on both ends of the floor.  Michigan State’s offense relies on getting into sets quickly and finding the gaps. Appling has had trouble with both this season and he will need to fix this for Michigan State to make a real deep run.

Doug McDermott

We all know the ways that McDermott can score, which is pretty much all of them, but with a potential Duke matchup on the horizon, McDermott is going to need to step up his defensive game while keeping his offense at the same high level.   Defense is going to be the next step in McDermott’s development any way, may as well let the tournament show what he can do.

 Mason Plumlee

Plumlee’s 1^st half of the season was among, if not the best, of any player in college basketball, but the injury to Ryan Kelly suddenly closed the court on Plumlee and he found it difficult to operate. Kelly is back, but we have yet to really see the early season Plumlee.  I expect Duke to go to Plumlee early in these tournament games to establish the inside game.  If Plumlee doesn’t get it done, the perimeter game may suffer as a result.

Check back as we go through each region leading up to Thursday, and after each weekend's games.

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