Time to kick off the full scouting reports for the 2013 NBA Draft, starting with the seniors first.  Leading off is a National Player of the Year candidate, a former National Champion, and one of the best big men in the country - Duke's Mason Plumlee.

Name:       Mason Plumlee     Age:   22     School: Duke

Height: 6’10   Weight: 235   Projected Position:         PF/C     

2012-13 Stats (As of  1/18/13):

17.5 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.6 bpg, 2.8 tpg (33.6 minutes per game)

62.1 FG%, 65.0 FT%, 63.8 TS%, 10.6 OREB%, 26.1 DREB%, 18.9 TREB%

SKILLS & ATHLETIC BREAKDOWN

Offense

Post Play

One of Plumlee’s biggest areas of improvement since last season, Plumlee has turned himself into a legitimate low-post scoring threat.  Plumlee has done a solid job looking to establish position on the blocks, and is capable of going over either shoulder to make his move to the basket, though he is much stronger and more fluid going over his left shoulder to his right hand.  Along with his improved positioning, he has become more aggressive in demanding the ball when he has his defender sealed.  He has a couple of go-to moves, including short jump hooks in the lane off of 2 dribbles, and a solid face-up move about 10 feet out where he can take a few quick dribbles to the basket.  Plumlee does need to do a better job holding his position once he establishes it on the blocks, and not let himself get pushed away from the basket.  Getting lower and using his lower body to anchor his spot as close to the basket as possible will allow him to make more power moves around the basket.  Plumlee is a solid screener on the perimeter and he can be a quality option going to the basket in pick-and-roll sets.

Footwork

Another area of improvement for Plumlee, Plumlee’s movements are a lot more fluid and with purpose.  He adjusts well to how he is being defended in the post, and looks to move quickly to avoid overplays and denial attempts.  As noted, he is much stronger, and confident, going over his left shoulder, but he is capable of going over either shoulder, taking 2 quick dribbles and shooting a short hook.  He has also shown a decent baseline dropstep, and the ability to face up and either go strong to the basket, or if the defense adjusts, use a nice spin move to create separation.  He is far from a finished product, and at times he can revert to hesitating too much if faced with a strong post defender.  Also, Plumlee needs to work on movements that bring him strong to the basket instead of 5-8 feet away.    

Ballhandling

Plumlee is an average ballhandler for his size, doing a good job minimizing the amount of dribbles he takes, and looking to keep the ball low and shielded from the defender.  He is much more comfortable with his right hand than his left, and you really don’t want him taking more than 2-3 dribbles when being guarded. 

Shooting

Here we come to one of the areas where Plumlee still needs some real work.  I’m not talking necessarily about a short or mid-range jumper, though eventually he will need to expand his offensive game a bit.  Plumlee is able to use both hands around the basket, but he needs to works on shooting the ball as opposed to pushing it towards the basket, especially on his short jump hooks.  A lot of his misses have come because he hits the rim straight on from the lane.  Just add some follow-through and a little arc and he could turn some of the misses into makes.  When he gets to the basket, he does a good job going up strong and finishing with a two-handed dunk.  One place he has improved is in his ability to use angles off the backboard to hit shots from just outside the lane area, allowing him to draw defenders away from the basket.

Rebounding

Plumlee has a good nose for the ball in offensive rebounding situations, and he does a good job establishing position around the basket to put himself in position for a tip or an easy 2^nd chance shot.  He likely would have more offensive rebounding opportunities if the Blue Devils didn’t take as many long perimeter jumpers, which usually have longer rebounds.     

Passing Skills

Plumlee has good court vision, especially out of the low post, and he knows almost instinctively where his open men will be after the defense helps against him.  For the most part, he makes strong passes to the perimeter, and on target enough to allow his teammate to get a quick shot off.  He has also shown the ability to make passes off the face-up and dribble to the basket, making sure he draws the help defender over to him.  Where Plumlee needs to work is on anticipating the need to make a pass, especially against double-teams on the low blocks.  He should also work on being able to spot weak-side cutters for easy shots around the basket.

Free Throw Shooting

There is no doubt that Plumlee has become a better free throw shooter this year, but that doesn’t mean the fixes he made are long-term solutions.  Plumlee’s biggest issue is that he doesn’t shoot the ball as much as he looks to aim the ball right into the hoop. This may have brought Plumlee some early success this season, and may continue to do so in the future, but without shooting the ball, including arc and follow-through, he reduces his margin of error if he is slightly off to almost nothing.  His shot either will go straight in or miss – not much chance for a good bounce.  What does this mean long term? Probably not a lot.  The game has gotten use to big men who can’t hit free throws, but Plumlee could possibly leave a lot of points on the table, since he does a very good job drawing contact and getting to the line. 

Defense

Post Defense

Plumlee has always been an above-average post defender, but he has shown that he is capable of handling many types of post players this season.  He positions himself well in the post, and he uses his upper body to put pressure on the offensive player.  He can deny the post when needed, but prefers to on the player’s dominant side, forcing them to go long around him if they want to make a move into the lane.  He needs to work on using his lower body better to anchor his position, and using it to force his man away from the basket.  His footwork has improved, but he can still be a step slow against quicker offensive players, and his lack of foot speed combined with his preference to shadow towards the inside shoulder leaves him susceptible to dropsteps along the baseline.  When his man faces up, he does a good job not coming out too far and making his man have to score from the perimeter.  Plumlee also does a very good job hedging out on high pick-and-rolls, forcing the ballhandler to take a wide path around, though he needs to work on being quicker spotting and recovering to his man after he sets the screen.  In general, Plumlee has very good defensive awareness, and you can see him throughout the game directing the perimeter defenders to screens and other movements by the offense.

Perimeter Defense

Plumlee realizes that he doesn’t have the foot speed and lateral quickness to defend smaller, quicker players on the perimeter, so instead, he makes sure to position himself in a way which allows him to prevent getting beat off a first-step while also allowing him to close on a perimeter shot.  If he is caught out in space, a decent ballhandler should be able to beat him with a few dribbles, so Plumlee will likely find himself choosing to protect the basket and give up the jumper. 

Help Defense/Shot Blocking

Plumlee isn’t necessarily known for his ability to block shots, and with good reason; he isn’t great at it.  He can be slow to react to shots and the timing of his extension could use some fine-tuning.  However, he is very good as a weakside and basket help defender, and he uses his length well enough to alter opposing shots.  He has also done a good job not picking up fouls by staying grounded on shot-fakes and not going after shots he know he can’t get to without fouling.

Rebounding

Plumlee can be very good on the defensive boards, but with some improvements, he can be even better.  He is very good at understanding where he should be positioned for rebounds depending on the shot, and he is quick to get to the ball after the miss.  He does a good job going strong after the miss, extending his arms to get the ball up high, and securing it.  However, he needs to do a better job looking to box out or put a body on someone before he goes after the ball.  What he gets away with now at the college level, will likely not work as well at the NBA level.  Once he secures the rebound, he has also become a very sound outlet passer, seeing the floor well and knowing when he can take a risk throwing out over the top in transition.  

Transition

Plumlee runs the floor well on the offensive break and he is capable of getting out in front of the defense and finishing, or coming in as a secondary option.  He goes strong to the rim and can finish through contact.  He is a competent enough ballhandler that he can take the ball off the dribble for short bursts, or he can elevate well enough to handle passes around the basket.

Plumlee does a very good job hustling back on transition defense and is very good at finding angles to disrupt fast break chances when he has a play.

Summary

Plumlee is an odd case of a senior who has had significant minutes for a few years now, but is now really starting to develop his complete skill-set.  When it comes to the draft, this puts him in some ways almost like a freshman or sophomore, where you are trying to figure out where his potential really lies.  As noted above, he still has some skill development to do, but he is strong and athletic, and has shown that he can continue to add the skills necessary to be a low-post presence at the NBA level.  While I don’t think he is going to get too much better than he is now, there is room for improvement, and he does enough already to be able to step in and give a tam solid minutes.  He will make almost any team better next season.

Draft Value:  1^st Round: Late Lottery-Mid 1^st  (#9-17)

Plumlee provides a solid mix of an established big man who can defend and rebound with a still progressing offensive game.  Maturity and leadership skills to join any organization.

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The development of the big man in basketball, especially at the college level, is always given a large amount of attention.  A mix of skill and potential, a good big man can instantly turn a team around, even at the NBA level.  The downside to this can be the length of the development process, which can vary greatly for all players, but even more so for 6’10, 6’11, 7’0 teenagers who are still learning to adjust to their size. 

Zeke Marshall, the 6^th ranked center and 43^rd overall player in the Class of 2009 according to Rivals.com, made a somewhat surprising choice when he turned down offers from schools in power conferences such as the ACC and Big East, to play for Akron in the Mid-American Conference. 

Looking back, Marshall is still comfortable with his decision.  “I wanted to come here and help take them to another level,” said Marshall after a recent practice.  “I liked the school and was comfortable with Coach (Keith) Dambrot. I have no regrets about coming here.”

On January 2, Marshall eclipsed the 1,000 point mark in his career, only the 40^th player in Akron history to reach that mark.  He is also 5 blocked shots away from becoming the most prolific swatter in MAC history.   Earlier this season, Marshall shattered the Puerto Rico Tip-Off block record with 13.  Currently, Marshall is the team’s leading scorer and 2^nd leading rebounder, while also being in the Top 10 in the nation in field goal percentage (66.7) and blocks per game (3.4).  Marshall has credited his development to helping him get to this point.

“Over the last few years, I think my whole game has improved,” said Marshall.  “I have been able to refine my skills on defense, but my offense has taken the biggest jump.  I am a lot more confident when I step on the floor.”

It wasn’t always an easy path for Marshall.  “I know there were a lot of expectations on me,” Marshall explained.  “Being 7-foot, I expected to do well, and I started to pressure myself a lot.” 

Akron Assistant Coach Charles Thomas, a college star at Eastern Michigan and a former NBA player, has had a close-up view of how Marshall has progressed as both a person and a player.  “His first two seasons were a very gradual progression,” said Thomas.  “He is always very hard on himself, and always wants positive results.  He would dwell on mistakes.  Now, if something doesn’t go right, he focuses on the next play.”

Marshall realizes this too, and he knows that even though he has come a long way, he is far from a finished product.  “The most important thing for me to continue to improve my game and my mindset,” said Marshall.  “I watch the NBA and I know how hard it is to get there.  I’ve had some flashes, and I just need to keep it going and be consistent on a nightly basis.”

As an NBA fan, Marshall has had the opportunity to watch a lot of players who he hopes to emulate as he continues his career.  “I look at someone like Marcus Camby,” said Marshall. “When he was Defensive Player of the Year with Denver, he held down that defense, he was almost all they had. I watch Tim Duncan also. He just goes out there and does whatever his team needs him to do every night.”

Marshall still has a lot he wants to accomplish in the last few months of his college career.  “The ultimate goal would be to get to the NCAA Tournament and the Final Four,” said Marshall.  “We just need to keep working hard and having the determination to get where we need to be.”  Marshall has his own personal goals for the end of his senior season.  “I want to keep getting stronger and nastier out on the floor.”

Thomas acknowledges how vital Marshall is to those goals.  “We rely a lot on Zeke, especially on the defensive end,” said Thomas.  “If he doesn’t play defense as well as he does, the team can’t go out and do everything else it wants to.”

He knows the road ahead of him is still long, but he isn’t short on motivation.  “I want to excel at whatever I do,” explained Marshall.  “Anything you do will always be more fun when you’re good at it.”  Of course, there are always different motivations – Marshall discussed wanting to prove critics wrong and wanting to live a comfortable life – but he the biggest motivation comes from within.  “I want it,” declared Marshall.  “I want to keep playing at the highest level and be the best I can be.”

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Photo: James Snook/USA Today Sports

Tonight’s Matchups

Arizona at Oregon

 Arizona has had a remarkable run to 14-0, with a lot of luck thrown in.  I don’t see that lasting much longer, and most will see that while this team is good, they aren’t among the country’s best.  Mark Lyons isn’t the point guard the team had hoped, but he is one of their leaders, and he is the guy you want with the ball in a close game.  The tough part is he isn’t getting the looks he needs to score consistently when he is looking to distribute as well.  Solomon Hill is starting to find his groove, playing with the grit and strength that marked the first few years of his career.  His ability to score inside and out, as well as guard multiple positions, allows Sean Miller flexibility with his lineup.  Nick Johnson may be the best playmaker the team has on the floor for long periods of time, and long-term, he may turn into a solid point guard.  Kevin Parrom may not log a ton of minutes, but he gets the job done on both ends when he is on the floor.  I’ve mentioned it before here, but Arizona’s freshmen bigs, Kaleb Tarczewski, Grant Jerrett, and Brandon Ashley, just aren’t ready for the minutes they get.  Unfortunately, without a good point guard to get them the ball where they need to, their development will continue to be stunted.

Oregon has gotten off to a quick start based on a fairly easy non-conference schedule, and had trouble for most of the game against Oregon State in their PAC-12 opener.  Dana Altman’s team is fairly balanced, but they also really don’t have anyone capable of taking over a game.  The freshman backcourt of Dominic Artis and Damyean Dotson has been a nice surprise, doing a good job pushing the pace and getting into the lane and creating openings.  Dotson has a lot of potential, but he really needs to become a better shooter.  Tony Woods has made the most of his second chance in Eugene, and along with Waverly Austin, gives the Ducks some legitimate size and strength on the interior.  Arsalan Kazemi doesn’t offer much on offense, but his focus on the defensive end has paid off.  He piles up rebounding numbers against weak interior teams, but his willingness to do it, frees up the team to get out on offense.  EJ Singler has yet to find his groove, but when he does, the Ducks’ offense becomes much more reliable.

Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga

 Randy Bennett’s St. Mary’s squad has become a consistent threat over the years, and this year isn’t much different.  Matthew Dellavedova is the best point guard in the country no one is talking about.  Dellavedova isn’t quick, but he is smart, and his ability to make reads off the pick-and-roll makes him dangerous all over the floor.  Plus, he has good size, and can easily hit the spot-up 3.  Stephen Holt and James Walker III provide a nice compliment of spot-up shooters who can also hit openings quickly, plus they are both very good on-ball defenders.  Brad Waldow and Mitchell Young do a good job defending the interior at their size, and they have both shown that they can score off the pick and roll.

Mark Few’s Gonzaga squad may be the best team out west and a legitimate national threat.  Kelly Olynyk has been on a tear that has placed him among the best big men in the country.  Olynyk isn’t strong, but he uses his long frame to create space, and his improved shooting touch lets him score from a variety of spots.  Elias Harris has used a good combination of slashing and post-play to be the consistent scorer Few had hoped.   Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. are both deep threats on the floor, and both are capable of pushing the ball in transition.  Pangos isn’t a strong point guard, but the Zags keep the ball moving until they find open spots, and look to push the pace as much as possible.  They may have some issues if Dellavedova gets them in the pick-and-roll – none of the Zags are very competent at defending it.

Others to Watch Tonight

Spencer Dinwiddie, Colorado vs. USC – After a strong start to his season, Dinwiddie has been average over the last month.  His biggest asset is his size, and he will need to use it well against a USC defense that can take away passing lanes and pressure the ball.   He should get good looks over the top of the USC defense if he is patient.

Nerlens Noel and Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky at Vanderbilt– This is one SEC game where the Kentucky freshmen bigs should be able to show off how far they have come in half a season.  Vanderbilt will look to stretch the defense with perimeter shooting, which could open the floor up, leaving the big men alone in the middle.  Also, there is no real interior defensive presence for the Commodores, so there is no excuse for them not to get good looks. 

Kenny Kadji, Miami at North Carolina– With the loss of their only real post presence in Reggie Johnson, Kadji will need to spend more time around the basket, though this doesn’t mean he can’t work the perimeter when the matchup is right.  North Carolina did a solid job against the UNLV bigs with a variety of defensive looks and a few different players.  Kadji will need to show his versatility to get his points tonight.

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Thoughts From Last Night

-          Quinn Cook had as big a bounce-back scoring game as one could have, going 12-16 from the floor for 27 points, while only committing 1 turnover against Clemson’s pressure defense.  The rest of the team struggled on the offensive end, but they forced the Clemson offense into too many bad shots.   Clemson’s Devin Booker was impressive, not backing down against Mason Plumlee and at times, taking Plumlee completely out of the offense.

-          Alex Oriakhi had a strong 2^nd half against Alabama, and he will need to step up more with Laurence Bowers out for a few games.  Phil Pressey continues to find his teammates for quality scoring opportunities, but he needs to remember to slow the game down at times, and make sure to read any changes in the defense.   

-          Talib Zanna looks like he may finally be able to carry over a good early season to conference play.  He did a great job running the floor and outhustling Georgetown around the basket.  Otto Porter had trouble again getting good looks, and teams are doing a much better job handling the Hoyas’ offensive movement.  Porter himself will need to be more aggressive in making opportunities.

-          Aaron Craft showed that you just can’t leave him alone on the offensive end, and the Buckeyes will need him to look for more scoring opportunities to free up his teammates.  Deshaun Thomas did a great job not forcing bad shots and finding open spots on the perimeter and around the basket. 

Tonight’s Matchups

Iowa State at Kansas

Fred Hoiberg’s Cyclones have jumped out to a 10-3 record this season behind an up-tempo, balanced offense, featuring 6 players averaging at least 9 points per game.  Will Clyburn has thrived in the open court, using his length and athleticism to attack the basket and finish through contact.  He also uses those same traits to crash the offensive boards.  Freshman Georges Niang is still finding his way in the Cyclones’ system, but his work ethic and ability to play multiple positions make him tough to defend.  Chris Babb and Tyrus McGee provide the ability to stretch the floor with their perimeter shooting.  Babb hasn’t been consistent this season, but when he gets going, he can be one of the best in the Big 12.  Korey Lucious is the same point guard he was at Michigan State, and that isn’t necessarily a good thing.  Melvin Ejim plays much bigger than 6’6, clearing out space around the basket and attacking the boards.

Kansas has been one of the most dominant teams through the first half of the season, and it all centers around Jeff Withey’s ability to protect the basket.  Withey is likely the best help defender in the league, and his ability to block shots in a way which helps his team get out on offense is a tremendous asset.  Add to that Withey’s improving offense around the basket which makes things easier for his teammates to find space.  Senior Elijah Johnson has had much of the scoring burden lifted from him with the emergence of freshman Ben McLemore, but Johnson has done a good job keeping the Jayhawks’ offense moving, while also doing a solid job pressuring the ball on the defensive perimeter.  McLemore has inserted himself strongly into Freshman of the Year conversations with spectacular, athletic plays at the rim, along with the ability to hit the spot-up 3 in halfcourt or in transition.  Travis Releford gives Kansas a lockdown defender who can guard 2 or 3 positions, and can also contribute on offense in a variety of ways.  Senior Kevin Young does a good job helping on the boards and making hustle plays.

Minnesota at Illinois

 At 14-1, there is probably no bigger surprise this season than Tubby Smith’s Minnesota team.   Rodney Williams has been efficient attacking the rim and finding space in the mid-range for his jumper.  He uses his length well on the defensive end and continues to improve as a rebounder.  Andre Hollins has done a good job keeping the offense moving, but more important, his ability to score quickly, and in bunches, can turn a game around quickly.  Austin Hollins and Joe Coleman provide strong perimeter scoring options.  Trevor Mbakwe looks to be near 100% after last year’s knee injury, and his power and athleticism in the lane may be unmatched in the Big 10. 

Right behind Minnesota’s surprise start may be Illinois and their 14-2 start under new coach John Groce.  Brandon Paul’s hot start has slowed a bit, and he has started to regress to some his old “forcing the issue” ways, but he is still capable of scoring in a variety of ways, and he does a good job getting to the free throw line.  Tracy Abrams and D.J. Richardson provide two capable scorers, as well as strong on and off-ball defenders.  Tyler Giffey and Nnanna Egwu use their length well to defend on the interior, but both need to do a better job finding shots around the basket, instead of settling for jumpers.

UNLV at New Mexico

UNLV has ridden a soft early schedule to a 13-2 record heading into Mountain West play.  Anthony Bennett has shown a good combination of skill, strength and athleticism, but his decision making is awful and he has been able to be thrown off his game by being physical with him.  Mike Moser is still recovering from an elbow injury, and Khem Birch is still adjusting to playing in real games.  Both are athletic and run the floor well.  Birch isn’t very skilled, but he runs the floor and hustles, while providing a good interior defensive presence.  Anthony Marshall is at his best in the open court, whether looking to score or getting the ball to wings.  He has had some trouble making decisions against teams who pressure the ball well in the halfcourt, and New Mexico will likely force him into many bad spots.  Justin Hawkins is easily the best UNLV defender, but he has found his time limited by time for Katin Reinhardt and Bryce Dejean-Jones, two of the worst shot selectors I have seen this season. 

Steve Alford’s New Mexico team has done a very good job making up for their lack of offensive options by playing tough halfcourt defense.  Kendall Williams has been inconsistent as a scorer, but he has done a decent job finding the hot hand when his scoring is off.  Tony Snell is an athletic wing who can slash or hit the open jumper, and he is at his best when he is given room to work on offense.  Big man Alex Kirk continues to improve on both ends of the floor, and he has shown that he can move well for a player his size.  Hugh Greenwood is supposed to provide a lift from the perimeter, but he has yet to find a game to game rhythm. 

Others to Watch Tonight

Lorenzo Brown, North Carolina State vs. Georgia Tech – Brown has done a good job scoring and creating off his penetration.  He uses his length well to get good looks once he is in the lane, though he shies away from contact too much.  Georgia Tech has good ball defenders who help funnel penetrators towards shot-blocker Daniel Miller.  Brown will need to avoid over-penetrating and getting stuck, and if possible, look to draw contact and get the Yellow Jackets big into early foul trouble.   

Rotnei Clark, Butler at St. Joseph’s–  Butler enters their first game as an Atlantic 10 member against one of the conference’s better teams.  St. Joe’s doesn’t pressure the ball well on the perimeter, but swarm when it gets below the foul line.  Clark should find plenty of good looks early from 3-point range which should help draw the defense out for the rest of the team.  If he can connect early, the Bulldogs should be able to attack the Hawks at the basket. 

Michael Snaer, Florida State at Maryland– Florida State has been an early disappointment, and pre-season All-American Snaer has been anything but.  He has had trouble getting good looks, though a lot of this has been on the Seminoles’ lack of solid point guard play.  Snaer is still capable of heating up quick, but he is going to have to likely shake Dez Wells to do it.  Look for Snaer to run Wells, or any defender, through multiple screens to get the looks he needs to get going, as well as looking to attack when the jumper isn’t there.

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Thoughts From Last Night

-          A very quiet hoops night last night, but I did catch the Notre Dame-Cincinnati matchup.  Jack Cooley had some early difficulty with the Bearcats’ length, but he used his strength advantage well down the stretch.  Jerian Grant continues to use his athleticism well to get into the lane and finish strong at the basket, but it helps when shooters like Scott Martin and Pat Connaughton help spread the floor.  Eric Atkins isn’t flashy at the point guard position, but he is effective and smart.  Atkins and Grant also played tough defense on the perimeter, forcing Cashmere Wright and Sean Kilpatrick out of their comfort zone often.

Players to Watch

Quinn Cook, Duke vs. Clemson– Cook has done a very strong job taking over the Blue Devils’ point guard spot as a sophomore.  Sporting a 2.7:1 assist to turnover ratio, and coming off of a 14 assist/1 turnover game against Wake Forest on Saturday, Cook is facing one of the ACC’s best at pressuring the ball and forcing turnovers in Clemson.  Cook has done well in previous matchups with pressuring teams in Louisville and VCU, though Clemson’s pressure is more structured than either of those teams.  Cook will need to stick to the gameplan and hit the gaps early to avoid the various traps.

Alex Oriakhi, Missouri vs. Alabama– Oriakhi is coming off a subpar performance against Bucknell on Saturday, but he will have a chance to make good with a strong outing against an athletic, strong defending Alabama team.  Oriakhi will be counted on for the little things here, setting screens to free Phil Pressey and shooters, sealing off the lane, and playing tough interior defense.

Otto Porter, Georgetown vs. Pittsburgh– Porter had difficulty creating space to get good looks against Marquette’s defense on Saturday, and Pittsburgh has the athletes to create the same issues for Porter.  The important thing for Porter will be to stay patient, play within the offense, and the openings will start to come once the offense gets into its flow. 

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